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“The Next Tsunami to Hit will be the Commercial Real Estate Market”

George Washington’s Blog [1]
Saturday, Dec 13, 2008

I am hearing first-hand stories from some top people in the commercial real estate business that the market is crashing.

Even the big boys – big mall-owners and the owners of office buildings – are losing their financing, and can’t to deals.

The Wall Street Journal [2] wrote about the looming commercial real estate crisis in November, leading off with the quote “The next tsunami to hit will be the commercial real estate market”. Bloomberg [3] and others have covered it. Stories of defaults by the owners of shopping malls are everywhere [4] (and see this [5]). Some urban regions are experiencing commercial vacancies of 15 percent to 20 percent [6].

I’m hearing the same thing from the horses’ mouths.