Putin poised to create 'police state'
Scotsman
FORCES loyal to Vladimir Putin were expected to be on their way to an overwhelming victory today as Russians went to the polls to support a party with little in the way of a manifesto other than slavish devotion to the president.
As opinion polls for the parliamentary elections indicate a crumbling in support for social democratic parties with millions of voters flooding to the Putin-loyal United Russia coalition, political analysts warned the president was well on his way to forming a "police state".
And it seemed unlikely that Friday's suicide bombing, in which suspected Chechen rebels killed 42 people on a train near the breakaway republic, would blunt a striking success for pro-Kremlin forces as a defiant Putin condemned the attack as an attempt to destabilise the country. As many as 27,000 police are on the streets of Moscow amid fears of further attacks.
The president's main cheerleader, United Russia, is running at 33% in the polls, with its nearest rival, the Communist Party, well behind on 26%.
Half of the Duma's 450 representatives are elected from single mandate constituencies while the other half are allocated to parties by proportional representation. Eighteen political parties and five electoral blocs are running.
If Putin-friendly parties take more than 300 seats today the president will have support from two-thirds of the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, a majority that would allow his supporters to bludgeon through controversial changes to the constitution.
Analysts agree this projected victory for Kremlin-friendly parties would give the president extreme leverage on parliamentarians and tempt him to ram through unpopular laws that tally with his authoritarian image as a former KGB spy who favours a strong hand.
Respected commentator Andrei Piontkovsky said: "Mr Putin is building a police state and he makes no bones about it."
Leonid Sedov, a senior researcher with the VTsIOM-A independent polling agency, agreed: "The president's total dominance combined with a pseudo multi-party Duma is a sure guarantee that the current course being charted toward a police state, controlled by an authoritarian head of state and the law enforcement agencies, will prevail for 10 to 12 years."
One option for Putin would be to lift the ban that prevents him from running for a third term in 2008.
His backers say the president is more likely to launch fresh economic reforms designed to erode Russia's massive bureaucracy. That would go hand in hand with his attempts to forge a strong state by wresting control of natural resources from the super-rich oligarchs.
But Putin has kept his cards close to his chest, calling on voters to back his allies and avoid a parliament that "binds the hands and legs of the president".
Another option for the president, who has so far shied away from constitutional change, is to persuade United Russia to horse-trade with president-friendly factions and squeeze through laws that centralise power in Moscow by merging some of Russia's 89 regions.
Opposition groups complain that pro-presidential forces have surged ahead because of biased coverage in the state-controlled media and clever use of kompromat - smear tactics - to blacken their rivals.
Putin's allies in United Russia ran a lacklustre campaign, refusing to participate in televised debates. Led by Interior Minister Boris Gryzlov and Moscow mayor Yuri Luzhkov, the party dodged most issues, preferring to stress its links with pop stars and famous sportsmen.
Most of all it won support by tirelessly hammering home its allegiance with the slogan, "Together with the president!"
It was a smart tactic at a time when Putin's personal ratings are riding high on the back of his campaign against oil magnate Mikhail Khodorkovsky and other oligarchs. The president is by far the country's most popular politician, and is almost certain to be the front-runner in presidential elections in March, for which the Duma poll is seen as a weathervane.
Although Putin is not a member of any party, he made clear where his sympathies lay in a television interview earlier this month. "United Russia is the political force that I have relied on for the past four years and which consistently supported me," he said.
The Communist Party laid itself open for charges of hypocrisy when it recruited several millionaires to its Duma campaign - but it should maintain its position today as the chief opposition party.
Ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky's Liberal Democratic Party, often a willing ally of the Kremlin in parliament, looks set to take third place with about 8%, an improvement on its 1999 standing.
But two liberal, market-orientated parties, Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces (SPS), are in danger of failing to reach the 5% threshold that ensures parties a place in parliament. SPS leader Irina Khakamada admitted the two parties were in "a catastrophic position" on the eve of the poll.
She said the waning of liberal forces was a threat to Russian democracy. "The next Duma will pass any law, including changing the constitution, which will not be controlled in any way by civil society."
Western investors are split on the expected success of United Russia, with some saying it could promote financial stability.
"The scenario in which pro-Kremlin forces get more votes is the better case one, which will enable the boldest reforms of public administration," said the Renaissance Capital investment bank in a research note.
But Putin's opponents see a darker outcome. Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov wrote a furious letter to the president last week accusing the Kremlin of using tactics "that would make Dr Goebbels look pale". And in an editorial, the Izvestia newspaper suggested United Russia deputies would be "essentially a mob that knows one thing only - that it supports the president".
TEN YEARS OF THE DUMA
TODAY'S parliamentary elections in Russia mark the 10th birthday of the post-Soviet State Duma. Here are some highlights from its rocky first decade:
October 1993 The Duma is born after President Boris Yeltsin (below) uses tanks to quell its Soviet-era predecessor, the Congress of People's Deputies.
December 1993 Nationalist rabble-rouser Vladimir Zhirinovsky leads his right-wing Liberal Democratic Party to the top spot in the first elections.
September 1995 Zhirinovsky puts a woman deputy in a headlock and pulls her hair in the parliamentary chamber.
December 1995 Extremist MP Nikolai Lysenko blows up his office in the building for insurance cash and publicity.
May 1999 Yeltsin survives an impeachment bid led by the Communists.
October 1999 The Unity party, forerunner to United Russia, is created as a platform for then Prime Minister Vladimir Putin two months ahead of elections. |
