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2008 Ends Spotless and with 266 Spotless Days, the #2 Least Active Year Since 1900, Portends Cooling
ICECAP
Joseph D’Aleo CCM, AMS Fellow
January 1, 2009
2008 will be coming to a close with yet another spotless days according to the latest solar image.
This will bring the total number of sunspotless days this month to 28 and for the year to 266, clearly enough to make 2008, the second least active solar year since 1900.
See larger image here.
The total number of spotless days this spolar minimum is now at around 510 days since the last maximum. The earliest the minimum of the sunspot cycles can be is July 2008, which would make the cycle length 12 years 3 months, longest since cycle 9 in 1848. If the sun stays quiet for a few more months we will rival the early 1800s, the Dalton Minimum which fits with the 213 year cycle which begin with the solar minimum in the late 1790s.
See larger image here.
Long cycles are cold and short ones like the ones in the 1980s and 1990s are warm as this analysis by Friis-Christensen in 1991 showed clearly.
See larger image here.
In reply to the arguments made that the temperatures after 1990 no longer agreed with solar length, I point out that it was around 1990 when a major global station dropout (many rural) began which led to an exaggeration of the warming in the global temperature data bases. Also the length from max to max of 21 to 22 was 9.7 years and cycle 22 length min to min 9.8 years, both very short suggesting warm temperatures in the 1990s. The interval of cycle 22 max to cycle 23 max centered in the mid 1990s began to increase at 10.7 years and the min to min length of cycle 23 is now at least 12.3 years.
With the Wigley suggested lag of sun to temperatures of 5 years and Landscheidt suggested 8 years, a leveling of should have been favored around 2000-2003 and cooling should be showing up now. Looking ahead, put that together with the flip of the PDO in the Pacific to cold and you have alarming signals that this cooling of the last 7 years will continue and accelerate.
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33 Responses to “2008 Ends Spotless and with 266 Spotless Days, the #2 Least Active Year Since 1900, Portends Cooling”
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January 1st, 2009 at 9:40 am
Nice article.
January 1st, 2009 at 1:20 pm
impeachbush.org
January 1st, 2009 at 2:37 pm
There are two types of people that deny global warming or global weirding: idiots and idiots who are paid by big oil. Alex jones and his zombie followers are both kinds of idiots.
January 1st, 2009 at 4:11 pm
The weather channel is constantly saying that there were twice as many record breaking warm days as record breaking cold days over the past year–but those statistics mean nothing, because they don’t reveal the total temperature degrees of cooling. If cities like Dallas, which typically have high temps in the summer, go say one to two degrees over the average for a particular day, it really isn’t a huge factor. But if they have days when the temps are 20 -30 degrees cooling than usual, that is unusual—but means nothing if you are just comparing total days.
The media takes full advantage of the lack of real science understanding by most Americans–part of the dumbing down the education system has engineered along with all those fluoride additives–did you know they put fluoride in your coke?
If people bothered to study history and learned that Britain was so warm during the medieval period from 1000 to 1400 they could grow grapes, and Greenland had farms where potatoes could be grown and cattle could be raised they would have a different perspective. That says something about climate change. They didn’t go around taxing people’s farting cows in those days, either. They made a lot of wine.
The earth is well over 4 billion years old. Comparing temperatures over the past century to the one before are rather silly. If we had reliable daily temperatures that go back 500 or 1,00 years, then maybe I would give those babes at the weather channel a little more credibility.
This crazy period of time is scarcely a drop in the bucket–but it is a very dangerous time for us humans thanks to the Nazi scientists we imported from Europe after WWII–who decided to continue their eugenics experiments on us thanks to the generous support of their United Nations friends and the bankers who funded Hitler….
Because most people don’t understand the full impact of genetically modified organisms, they still eat corn chips, guzzle high fructose corn syrup soda, synthetic beer, and consume all the other highly processed supermarket goodies that are dulling their brains at the same time their waistlines are expanding. Yes, believers of Al Gore, who are quite ready to embrace the New Religion —-take your place in line because we already have a New World Order–we are just about at step nine of the twelve step program to wean us off of being independent and thinking Americans and have adapted nicely to the dumbing down.
Continue to parrot what the big boys have been feeding you–and just believe that the record breaking cold temps and incredible amounts of snow falling over over the northern hemisphere are part of Global warming. It’s all a part of newspeak and was quite nicely described in ” 1984. ” By the way, if you still believe in Global Warming, I have some nice discounted carbon credits I can sell you.
January 1st, 2009 at 4:21 pm
Hey Cunter Rose #3 you should take some freakin’ science classes. I bet you flunked science or were fed the dummy down version. Either way you’re an idiot because you have a chance to learn the truth but you choose not to. I hope you enjoy paying your carbon tax while you freeze to death, punk!
January 1st, 2009 at 4:32 pm
No, Hunter, there are thousands of scientists that aren’t paid by big government that understand the scam and know the real inconvenient truth: global warming is a politically motivated movement that uses dupes like you to chant a mantra of twisted information in a desperate attempt to convince the masses that man’s normal life activities can affect the weather.
January 1st, 2009 at 5:12 pm
No global warming is true , cause Al Gore & George Bush said so , and they got more schooling then us regular folks , so we is knows them boys ain’t lying to us ! !!!!!! LOL !!!!!!!!!!!
January 1st, 2009 at 8:11 pm
And that steroid freak in Ca-lee-for-ni-a to the list of ignorant imbeciles pushing this “man-made” global warming hoax.
January 1st, 2009 at 11:40 pm
Here’s my prediction for 2009. This will be the year where a large proportion of the “Warmists” start seeing more and more articles like the one above, and with any luck start realizing they’ve been “had”.
There has to be a point where even a modicum of Journalistic Integrity resumes. Climate reporters the likes of CNN’s Drones are far too concerned over job security (hence the continual Ringing of the Dooms-day-bell) as opposed to reporting the truth, or at the very least an unbiased review of ALL the facts involved. Planet in Peril indeed.
It scares the hell out of me that so many are now wrapped up in the CO2 “problem” and have stopped looking at what we’re really doing to the environment. Every time I mention, I believe global warming is a hoax, I hear the same response… “you don’t care about the environment”. This is a complete twisting of the truth.
If we as a species are spoon fed doom and gloom about CO2, we’re going to be far less likely to look at the real issues at hand. Westernized society placing ecosystems in peril, simply because no one takes account of the full picture. I can remember the coverage of Amazon destruction in the early 90’s along with a myriad of other environmental catastrophes that we were responsible for perpetrating on the earth, but ever since the IPCC and others began ringing the alarm on global warming, all anyone seems to care about is the “pollutant CO2″. News flash… CO2 is a Naturally occurring gas…. The tailing ponds from Tar-Sand Oil extraction in Northern Alberta are certainly not natural, and will have much more tangible effects then something that has yet to be linked to global temperature increases (That have been in decline for years now).
I really hope 2009 is the year people like Hunter Rose start looking at all the facts and making decisions for themselves as opposed to jumping on the bandwagon.
January 2nd, 2009 at 12:11 am
Hey Skriver, if you really have taken a long look about co2, no one is denying is doesnt occur naturally. No one is saying it is 100% toxic. What scientists are saying is that more co2 traps heat thus warms the planet. Levels are abnormally high. Even when taking into account the sun and all other variations nut jobs like you like to quote and even then you still have an abnormal amount and this is caused by man and many of his related activities such as raising cattle for food, deforestation, cars, power plants etc. You are like all the rest of the idiots on this site. You do not even have the basic knowledge about what scientists say is happening and then you read up on conspiracy theories and even then you only have a basic knowledge of the conspiracy theory. Do you know who many spheres in science is involved to analyze climate change? Have you seen the alarming data from these different spheres? It makes me sad to see ignorant middle to low class individuals siding with the corporations and thus shooting themselves in the foot. One day you will see how stupid and gullible you really were. Then again you will probably believe in another conspiracy theory. lol
January 2nd, 2009 at 1:14 am
Firstly, not once did I take a low road and make a (pointlessly banal) attempt to insult you in my post. Secondly I find it impressive that you can make an assumption on my financial status simply by reading a post. You are truly an impressively preceptive individual.
If you simply take a few seconds to yank your Fear-Mongering-Mass-Media loaded mind from your ever tightening sphincter you would realize the point of my post was designed with the purpose of encouraging individuals to take a look at the larger picture.
The link you describe between increases in CO2 and an increase in overall aggregate Global temperatures can also be seen as conversely opposed to a number of much more well educated persons than You or I.
Admittedly, there are a number of recently released studies that show both sides of the argument. Most interestingly, a number of former IPCC scientists are starting to speak out. Look it up, you may or not have have heard of this wonderful tool…. Google. Do a little more reading on the IPCC, and you may soon start to realize how many scientists have left the IPCC due to fears they would inevitably destroy their careers if they continued to propagate incorrect findings, bad data and outright lies.
Several of these former IPCC Scientist’s (Peer reviewed) studies (unlike most of the UN’s) indicate global temperatures may actually decrease with increased atmospheric CO2 levels. I would encourage you to take the time to do a little more reading on the subject. I have, and through making efforts to not focus on one side of the story has allowed me to see both sides and formulate what one could consider an educated opinion.
Not once have I indicated there is a “Conspiracy” behind the Global Warming Controversy. I have only mentioned that there are more important issues at hand that we could be focused on to improve the condition of our planet.
Feel free to call me a nut job. I’m sure the 650+ scientists who sent letters to the UN last month, asking the UN/IPCC to reconsider Global Warming are far less educated than you and the 50+ Financially backed scientists from the IPCC are.
I hope you enjoy 2009 and by the time we’re all ready to party like it’s 2010, you may have taken a little more time to educate yourself to see beyond the edges of the shallow puddle wherein you currently sit, bathed in the comfort of your overwhelmingly myopic ignorance.
January 2nd, 2009 at 1:20 am
“What scientists are saying is that more co2 traps heat thus warms the planet. Levels are abnormally high.”
and what is “normal” for c02….temps….ect?
January 2nd, 2009 at 1:25 am
about 270 parts per million would be normal if my memory serves me right.
January 2nd, 2009 at 1:35 am
Just the fact that you assume that I have a mass media driven mind shows that you yourself assume a lot. I have studied the mass media for the past 20 years. I have just completed a one year study of the MSM and the alternative media in the US. I can say without a doubt that mass media is completely controlled by the corporations. It took forever for them to cover global warming and even now they do not cover it like they should. Stop trying to impose your beliefs on reality. I have studied both sides of the debate as well as the media. I have also studied alex jones and other alternative media stars. They are nothing more than alternative corporate media hacks. The tell more truth but ultimately they keep you scared, in your place and wanting small government and big business.
The subject about global warming is vast and complex. It touches half a dozen scientific spheres of knowledge. I have looked at the data. We need to alarm people instead of putting forth denial. There are a thousand problems which have to be addressed in a thousand different ways and denial gets you no where except maybe some people sell a few books and get a few more listeners to listen to your radio show like alex. as for your 650 scientists that are in denial, try tens of thousands saying the contrary.
January 2nd, 2009 at 1:49 am
It’s fairly apparent that you have something against Alex Jones, and that’s completely OK. This is the first time I’ve stumbled upon this site, and I feel it worth mentioning my stance on global warming is not driven through outside media influences. Nor is it based on Left versus Right nonsense.
To your point 10’s of thousands of scientists saying the contrary. Since you’ve spent the last 20 years studying mass media and have dedicated such a large portion of your life to these efforts, you should have no challenge indicating your sources for such a number?
I would be most interested if you could substantiate your claim, and back-up your findings with even a smattering of information showing who these 10’s of thousands of scientists are, as well as perhaps show there is no correlation between their findings and receipt of remuneration in one form or another for continuing the myth of global warming.
Unless you’re able to provide substantiating data to your point, I suggest you refrain from quoting such numbers, as the electricity you are using to post your comments is only increasing the temperatures even further.
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:08 am
Very weak argument about my comments using too much energy. I have a psu that is just the perfect size and close to 90% efficient. A green motherboard using epu4 to save power to cpu gpu etc. I have 2 green hard drives. My computer is always off when not in use. I use 100% electricity that was created from hydro power. I recycle as much as I can. I use things to the bitter end. I spend very little. I could own a car but public transportation is great and cheaper. I have maybe 2 garbage bags of trash a month. I live a minimalist lifestyle without forgoing the technology. I try to be as green as I can. As for the tens of thousands of scientists, use google. The people in denial are about 5%.
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:26 am
Thanks for pointing out Google, I had absolutely no clue. Just so you know, I recycle everything I possibly can, use low energy lighting in my home, I supplement power using Solar at my business. I also drive a Jeep with a 360 ci all wheel drive. I get about 8mpg on premium. Long story short, you’re fairly dense if you didn’t catch the sarcasm in my mentioning your energy use.
I’m still waiting for one good piece of information substantiating your last claim of 10’s of thousands. And you’ve also now added another number (pulled out of the same sphincter region as your previous numbers no doubt) 5% of people are in denial. While on the same side as the coin, according to a survey by the Pew Research Centre, as of April 2008, only 47% of people believe global warming is caused by man.
Anyone can use statistics to back a point. 5 out of 4 people agree.
Still waiting for you to back up your claim of 10’s of thousands of scientists. And again, if you could be so kind, please include evidence showing these scientists are not funded in part or whole through grants dedicated to propagation of man made global warming myths.
Heck, at this point I would settle for a factual (that’s based in reality) list showing 1% of the number you claim.
January 2nd, 2009 at 3:07 am
I have green hard drives?
Green is a color.
I know Gigabyte motherboards are green on top so you must have one of those.
January 2nd, 2009 at 3:20 am
I keep putting links to hard hitting truths and debunking of the people in denial and they keep removing the links and I have to keep changing my name because I get banned. Wow this site is worst than any site I have been on. Cannot even post links that destroy the propaganda created by this site and idiots who believe them.
January 2nd, 2009 at 3:22 am
Sry Skriver but this fascist site will not let me post anything…try climate wars part 1-3…good videos and quicksilverscreen
January 2nd, 2009 at 8:21 am
By claiming earth is 4 or 5.5 billion years old you’re all being as idiots as those that defend the global warming hoax and lie to people.
Population growth, no ancient technology remains, in the last 100-150 we went from the first gun models to a modern time where guns can fire hundreds of rounds per second and os much more.
So please stop the billion years crap, the earth is in a only a few thousands years old.
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:16 am
Shenk. Get off the Pipe dude. That stuff is bad for your health, and even worse for your perception of reality
Grouping your whacked out creationist (if you can even call it that) beliefs, the untruth of Global Warming, and some how the fire-rate capability of guns is like comparing apples to dragons to the signal lights on my Jeep. Sure they may all have a small quotient of red, be made of atoms all containing electrons and exist in 3 dimensions, but most of the similarity ends there.
Go hijack another topic. This one is about global warming.
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:28 am
@ Skriver
I’ll post wherever I want, I don’t care about punks like you that think they know more than the others. You’re as dumb as those that believe in the global warming hoax.
Damn potheads. Hell I didn’t even asked for your opinion so do me favor and keep quiet.
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:43 am
Never ceases me to amaze me the stupidity of some people. By implying that the earth is billion years old they’re pretty much saying that we are the worthless product of chance and that we only learned how to make stuff a few thousands of years ago. The warfare tech we know of ancient times is basically the spear, sword, bow, shield and so on. If we were around for billions years old I’m sure by now we would be ridin’ flying saucers or other ultra high tech.
In the last 500 years we went from 1\2 billion population to 6.8 as of today. I’m sure if we were for billions of years old the population would have surely hit the 15 or more. But that just proves the Great Flood that took place around 2300-2500 BC and the Noah’s Ark. After the Flood the only few survivors had to start anew and the Earth suffered major chances and besides we cannot find any stuff beyond 2300-2500 BC. The only major civilizations we know of in history was Rome, Greece, Medo-Persian, Babylon and Egypt.
“and some how the fire-rate capability of guns is like comparing apples to dragons to the signal lights on my Jeep.”
Gee. You didn’t even got my point.
As I said in the last 100 to 150 points we have had major technologic improvements. We went from earlist gun types, artillery and so on to a modern time. The technology we have today is a big improvement than we had 150 years ago. To agricultural major improvements, internet, cars, and so forth. In such a short timespan we humans developed so much and yet idiots like you claim we are around for billion of years?
Gee. Ok if evolution was true the evidence I’d get was people like you which points exactly to a worthless product of chance with primitive thoughts such “billion years”.
January 2nd, 2009 at 12:28 pm
SHNEK,
like I said before, stop hijacking. This is about global warming of which you have no valid points to add. If you want to speak about creationism and the history of the planet, go elswhere. If you have anything valid to contribute to the (what I would consider entertaining banter) discussion that Hunter and I were having please do so.
Where exactly did I say humans had been around for billions of years? There is an exponential growth rate to populations (go buy yourself a pitre dish) as well as an exponential growth rate to any level of technology. It’s as simple as that.
If you’re suggesting that our species has only been around for a few thousand years and the Earth has been around for only a few thousand more, please explain any one of the Paleolithic Cave paintings that have been found in france (30+K years old). Better yet, explain how species have shown through analysis of Mitochondrial DNA to have common ancestors, as well as progressive and slow evolution.
On second thought, don’t comment. Like I said, post somewhere else.
January 3rd, 2009 at 6:25 am
FCUK THE NEO-SCUM BLOOD-SUCKERZ, BOY BUSH & O”BAAAA”MA BIN LADEN TOO !!!!!
TIME TO STAND-UP & BE COUNTED FOLKS. LET’S WIN THIS INFOWAR THAT WE’RE IN !!!
SPREAD THE WORD, LET EVERYBODY KNOW WHAT ALEX HAS TAUGHT US !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
RETURN POWER 2 THE PEOPLE, BY THE PEOPLE, & FOR THE PEOPLE
LET THE REVOLUTION BEGIN ………………………………… ALEX JONES 4 PRESIDENT !!!!!!
January 3rd, 2009 at 2:42 pm
The amount of disinformation found on this site is dangerous. Alex Jones and his cronies are the biggest shills in the business. The only people found on this site are gullible, uneducated, religious and right wing. You all follow jones like he is some leader when in fact he is nothing but a fake and a fraud. He is worst than the MSM because he is scooping up the people that see through the lies of the MSM but then in turn lies to them. All the climate denying lies have been easily debunked YET alex jones and his cronies keep telling those discredited lies. google this: climate wars + quicksilverscreen. Alex Jones is a dangerous man, he leads to religion and the free market which is the problem we have today. Alex Jones, I can promise you that your days are numbered. People are waking up even to your crap. Long live the real truthers and down with fake alex jones!!
January 3rd, 2009 at 4:12 pm
Well Hunter Rose, you like to shoot the messenger hah?
Why attack Alex when, for example, he has nothing to do with this article about sunspots?
This particular article is linked from icecap.us , why dont you email them and accuse them for spreading disinformation, i can only hope that you have some facts that can debunnk them, but you wont! You just like to point fingers without a single proof to back up your words with!?!
THAT makes me wonder who deals with disinformation?
Infowarriors around the world, Keep up the good fight!
January 4th, 2009 at 11:58 am
While sunspot activity may have been dormant this year, butt the spotting of my tampons has been decidedly active. I typically have to change pads four or five times a day when I’m flowing heavy. Just two weeks ago, I ended up changing a pad during lunch, right there at the table because I didn’t want to go to the restroom. So, I stood up, lifted my skirt – in full view of the other diners, and removed the smelly pad and wrung it out in a bowl of gaspacho that was sitting unattended at the next table. I replaced the used pad in my britches and sat back down. My cootchie thanked me…and oddly enough, I detected an increase in temperature in my crotchal region…..Crotchal Warming.
Oh, and Hunter (I’m a Trool) Rose is a turd muncher.
January 4th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
ProfessorPoopyPants you are the perfect example of a crass uneducated ignorant idiotic chimp brained fool just like most people on this site. I am a real truther compared to the fake truthers found on this site. I deal with conspiracy facts and not conspiracy propaganda. Keep up the good work, one day you will drown in your shallow end of the gene pool.
January 5th, 2009 at 4:27 am
INFORMATION IS THE BEST WEAPON TO USE AGAINST THESE NEO-SCUM BASTARDS !!
IT’S TIME FOR ALL INFOWARRIORS TO STEP UP, STEP FORWARD, AND POLLUTE THE
WORLD WITH OUR COLLECTIVE KNOWLEDGE OF CONSCIOUSNESS. 1 LOVE !!!!!!!!!!!
TIME TO GIVE POWER BACK 2 THE PEOPLE, GIVEN BY THE PEOPLE, & GIVEN 4 THE PEOPLE
AND SO BEGINS THE REVOLUTION …………………………………………….
………”RON PAUL”……………………….”ALEX JONES”………………………….”DAVID ICKE”……….
…..FOR PRESIDENT…………….FOR VICE-PRESIDENT………….FOR SECRETARY-OF-STATE……..
January 5th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
DJORB…let me guess…you are an ignorant uneducated inbred hick with the brain of a retarded chimp? You guys are SOOOOOOO stupid and ignorant. You quote alex jones and ron paul yet these two hacks are pro capitalism and pro- religion….the two biggest totalitarian systems invented by man. This website really wallows in the shallow end of the gene pool.
January 16th, 2009 at 6:52 am
Sucker born every second.