A little known 20 year old climate change prediction by Dr. James Hansen – that failed badly

Watts Up With That?
Friday, Oct 23rd, 2009

The news today from the Pew Institute tells us that many Americans are backing away from the predictions of catastrophic climate change. This may be because many predictions simply haven’t come true.

Most, if not all, WUWT readers know Dr. James Hansen of GISS. He’s credited with jump starting the debate in 1988 with his now famous “sweaty” testimony before Congress in June 1988. See more about the stagecraft of that event here.

Readers might be tempted to think that I’m going to point out the discrepancies between the three different model scenarios that Dr. Hansen presented to Congress in 1988, as shown below. But these model projections are very well known. I’m talking about something else entirely.

In Dr. Hansen’s case, he’s been living the life of a scientist in the media spotlight since, giving thousands of interviews. He’s also taken on the role of activist during that time, getting himself arrested this year for obstructing a public highway.

He likely doesn’t remember this one interview he gave to a book author approximately 20 years ago, but fortunately that author recounted the interview on Salon.com. What is most interesting about this particular Hansen interview is that he dispenses with the usual models and graphs, and makes predictions about what will happen in 20 years to New York City, right in his own neighborhood. Sea level figures prominently.

Here’s the interview. 

In a 2001 interview with author Rob Reiss about his upcoming book “Stormy Weather” Salon.com contributor Suzy Hansen (no apparent relation to Jim Hansen) asks some questions about his long path of research for the book. One of the questions centered around an interview of Dr. James Hansen by Reiss around 1988-1989. Red emphasis mine.

Extreme weather means more terrifying hurricanes and tornadoes and fires than we usually see. But what can we expect such conditions to do to our daily life?

While doing research 12 or 13 years ago, I met Jim Hansen, the scientist who in 1988 predicted the greenhouse effect before Congress. I went over to the window with him and looked out on Broadway in New York City and said, “If what you’re saying about the greenhouse effect is true, is anything going to look different down there in 20 years?” He looked for a while and was quiet and didn’t say anything for a couple seconds. Then he said, “Well, there will be more traffic.” I, of course, didn’t think he heard the question right. Then he explained, “The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change.” Then he said, “There will be more police cars.” Why? “Well, you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.”

And so far, over the last 10 years, we’ve had 10 of the hottest years on record.

Didn’t he also say that restaurants would have signs in their windows that read, “Water by request only.”

Under the greenhouse effect, extreme weather increases. Depending on where you are in terms of the hydrological cycle, you get more of whatever you’re prone to get. New York can get droughts, the droughts can get more severe and you’ll have signs in restaurants saying “Water by request only.”

When did he say this will happen?

Within 20 or 30 years. And remember we had this conversation in 1988 or 1989.

Does he still believe these things?

Yes, he still believes everything. I talked to him a few months ago and he said he wouldn’t change anything that he said then.

I’ve saved the Salon.com web page as a PDF also, here, just in case it should be deleted. So not only did Dr. Hansen make the claims in the late 1980’s, he reaffirmed his predictions again in 2001.

The scenario of the interview with Dr. Hansen looking out his window and describing the changes he envisions 20 years into the future is very plausible. As we established yesterday, Dr. Hansen’s NASA GISS office at 2880 Broadway in NYC,  has a view of the Hudson River.

Here’s a Google Earth street level view of 2880 Broadway:

Using Google Earth, I can actually fly right up to Dr. Hansen’s window and recreate the view.

First let’s establish the location in traditional downlooking map style view at put Dr. Hansen’s line of sight on the image:

Here is a close in view, from further east on 112th street, just behind the GISS building looking northwest to the Hudson river. Google’s 3D buildings feature is used to recreate the buildings:

Here’s what the view from Dr. Hansen’s window at GISS looks like:

And finally, here is the view from the Hudson, looking back to the GISS building:

In the recounting of the interview by Rob Reiss, Hansen makes several claims about trees, birds, police cars, and crime. I can’t comment on those as I have no data. What I can comment on is this prediction by Dr. Hansen:

“The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water.”

As you can clearly see in the Google Earth images, the West Side Highway remains dry and open. Sea level (at which the Hudson River at that point becomes) is not encroaching on the highway. Note the date on the Google Earth timeline toolbar in the upper left. The aerial imagery was taken approximately 20 years later, on May 12th, 2008.

So much for local climate change predictions by the leading global authority on climate change.

Even if we give Dr. Hansen the benefit of 30 years, I’ll point out that satellite measurement of global sea level has slowed significantly in the last few years, and is not likely to rise enough to meet Dr. Hansen’s prediction even 30 years out. See this story.

In fact using the University of Colorado interactive sea level plotting tool, we can see virtually no trend in the last 20 years:

You can reproduce it here at sealevel.colorado.edu

I wonder what Dr. Hansen thinks when he looks out that window today?

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6 Responses to “A little known 20 year old climate change prediction by Dr. James Hansen – that failed badly”

1. Glen Says:
   October 23rd, 2009 at 7:07 am

   This is just the start of their predictions to be proven false by reality.
   Sadly if they have their way by the time their current predictions are also proven false by reality they will have stolen Trillions of dollars in taxes from every person on earth.
   This is why they are stepping up the rhetoric, they realise their stories delivered in the past are going down in flames behind, might explain the warming they feel.
   Every year now we will see more of these older predictions being proven false by reality and undecided people seeing this can only question the validity of the current predictions.
   Sooner or later we will see a TIPPING POINT (I hate that concept) where the media can no longer keep pushing the warming propaganda for fear of the blow-back from people sick of the lies.
   We just need to keep track of the cereal box scientists making these predictions so as we can ensure such scientific charlatans are remembered, and their actions on this scam will follow them for the rest of their career and their future work is checked thoroughly for the same fundamental errors in scientific method

2. moose Says:
   October 23rd, 2009 at 1:14 pm

   Twelve years ago, Algore said that in ten years it will be too late. Since it’s too late, let’s all stop worrying about it and let the loons find something else to raise our taxes for. I’m bored.

3. Politicians cost lives Says:
   October 23rd, 2009 at 1:27 pm

   Forget about average global temperatures. Forget about ice caps melting and Polar Bears floating across the Atlantic on ice cubes. Forget about rising sea levels, droughts, increased hurricanes, floods and on and on. Also forget about sunspot cycles or El-Nino and La-Nina, or whatever the hell else has been thrown into the mix as a distraction because none of it matters, none of it is relevant. All we have to do is drill down and focus on one thing only.

   That one thing is CO2.

   It is claimed that humans are responsible for Climate Change because of our CO2 emissions and that we need to have limits imposed because we need to reduce our emissions of CO2.

   So first simply ask yourself this:

   Can CO2 trap in heat?

   Answer: NO, nothing traps in heat, substances can only absorb and re-emit heat but they cannot trap heat.

   Next question, does CO2 absorb heat more strongly than the other gasses in the atmosphere?

   Answer: NO, CO2 is only 0.03811% of the atmosphere and remains as solid ice up to a temperature of 194.65 K

   Nitrogen and Oxygen which make up 99% of the atmosphere on the other hand, begin to melt at temperatures as low as 50-60 K and so are much stronger absorbers of heat and at the same time, make up most of the atmospheric gasses.

   This puts the effect of CO2 into context. CO2 cannot trap heat as no gasses in the atmosphere can. CO2 is a tiny proportion of the gasses in the atmosphere, so tiny in fact that compared to Oxygen and Nitrogen it is barely noticeable. The effect of such tiny amounts of CO2 being a much weaker absorber of heat than Nitrogen and Oxygen, also show that the warming effect of CO2 is insignificant.

   So the final question is, are we responsible for Climate Change through our CO2 emissions?

   Answer: NO WE MOST DEFINITELY ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE.

   Take that to Copenhagen!

   If you would like to know more about the AGW fraud and carbon tax, download this free .pdf book

   http://www.spinonthat.com/CO2_files/CO2tdino.pdf

4. Tyler Says:
   October 23rd, 2009 at 1:28 pm

   I know this is completely off topic, but does anyone else recognize his office building? You should.

   Most especially if you watch Seinfeld.

   Couldn’t resist.

5. Hangtime55 Says:
   October 23rd, 2009 at 4:50 pm

   HERE IS A ARTICLE ON THE INTERNET- JOHN COLEMAN , FOUNDER OF THE WEATHER CHANNEL . HE STATES THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS ” THE BIGGEST SCAM IN HISTORY ” COLEMAN HAD EVEN CHALLENGED AL GORE AND HIS ” AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH ‘ DOCUMENTRY INTO DISCUSSION , NO REPLY FROM GORE .

   FOR THE CONSPIRACY MINDED , JUICY WORDS LIKE – U.N. , ONE WORLD GOVERNMENT , BOHEMIAN GROVE , ARE MENTIONED.

   By John Coleman – Founder of The Weather Channel
   January 28, 2009 (Revised and edited February 11, 2009)

   Source – http://www.kusi.com/weather/co.....74742.html

   ” The key players are now all in place in Washington and in state governments across America to officially label carbon dioxide as a pollutant and enact laws that tax us citizens for our carbon footprints. Only two details stand in the way: the faltering economic times and a dramatic turn toward a colder climate. The last two bitter winters have led to a rise in public awareness that there is no runaway global warming. A majority of American citizens are now becoming skeptical of the claim that our carbon footprints, resulting from our use of fossil fuels, are going to lead to climatic calamities. But governments are not yet listening to the citizens.”

   “How did we ever get to this point where bad science is driving big government to punish the citizens for living the good life that fossil fuels provide for us ” ?

   PARTS OF THIS ARTICLE INCLUDE :

   ” Back in the 1960s, this global warming research came to the attention of a Canadian born United Nation’s bureaucrat named Maurice Strong. He was looking for issues he could use to fulfill his dream of ONE WORLD GOVERNMENT. Strong organized a World Earth Day event in Stockholm, Sweden in 1970. From this he developed a committee of scientists, environmentalists and political operatives from the UN to continue a series of meetings.”

   ” The global warming frenzy was becoming the cause célèbre of the media. After all, the media is mostly liberal, loves Al Gore, loves to warn us of impending disasters and tell us “the sky is falling, the sky is falling.” The politicians and the environmentalist loved it, too.”

   ” Did Roger Revelle attend the summer enclave at the BOHEMIAN GROVE in Northern California in 1990 while working on that article” ?

   ” That warming ended in 1998 and global temperatures (as measured by satellites) leveled off. Starting in 2002, computer models and reality have dramatically parted company. The models predicted temperatures and carbon dioxide would continue to rise in lock step, but in fact while the CO2 continues to rise, temperatures are in decline. Now global temperatures are in such a nose dive there is wide spread talk from climatologists about an impending ice age. In any case, the UN’s computer model “proof” has gone up in a poof.”

   READ THE ENTIRE ARTICLE AT THE WEB ADDRESS ABOVE – ITS WORTH YOUR TIME !

6. Politicians cost lives Says:
   October 24th, 2009 at 4:33 am

   Great post.

   I don’t want to be seen as a Gore basher but it is worth mentioning that in his seminal, Nobel Prize winning work an Inconvenient Truth, all Gore dedicates to the subject of CO2 and how it is supposed to effect global temperatures is a pathetic 200 words of childish, meaningless gobbledegook.

   Compare that to the thousands and thousands of words of waffle he includes about himself and his family in a book that is supposed to be about CO2 and you start to see more of Gore the politician and less Gore the Environmentalist.

   For a comprehensive examination of how CO2 does not increase temperature with more than 20,000 words dedicated to the subject get CO2 The Debate Is Not Over, as a free .pdf download here http://www.spinonthat.com/CO2_files/CO2tdino.pdf