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ADP: January Job Losses Were Actually TRIPLE What We Thought, And No, We Won’t Blame The Snowicane

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Vincent Fernando
Business Insider
Wednesday, March 3, 2010

ADP’s employment report showed 20,000 jobs lost in February, which was in-line with analyst expectations. Thing is, they revised down their January number by a huge margin — to -60,000 from -22,000.

ADP:

Nonfarm private employment decreased 20,000 from January to February 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from December 2009 to January 2010 was revised down, from a decline of 22,000 to a decline of 60,000. The February employment decline was the smallest since employment began falling in February of 2008.

ADP: January Job Losses Were Actually TRIPLE What We Thought, And No, We Wont Blame The Snowicane chart

Apparently, weather doesn’t mess up ADP’s data the way it does for the government’s:

Two large blizzards smothered parts of the east coast during the reference period for the BLS establishment survey. The adverse weather had only a very small effect on today’s ADP Report due to the methodology used to construct it. However, the adverse weather is widely expected to depress the BLS estimate of the monthly change in employment for February, but boost it for March. Therefore, it would not be unreasonable to expect the BLS estimate for February (due out this Friday) to be less than today’s ADP Report even though the BLS estimate will include the hiring of temporary Census workers not captured in the ADP Report.

Read the official release here >

This article was posted: Wednesday, March 3, 2010 at 9:21 am





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