Thursday, May 24, 2012
There was a time, late in the winter, that not a day passed without some headline announcing Israel’s preparedness to attack Iran, culminating with the grotesque – a show on Israel TV detailing the actual invasion plans. All these daily updates did was guarantee one thing – that absolutely no war could possibly break out for two simple reasons:
i) you never declare war when the opponent is expecting you, instead you habituate them to news about imminent invasions which never happens, and,
ii) Brent was over $120, which would guarantee no re-election for Obama as outright war would send the energy complex soaring, gas prices surging, and the world economy, but most importantly the Russell 2000, tumbling.
Over the past 2 months two things have happened: chatter of “imminent” war with Iran has died down to barely a whisper, and WTI is now trading 20% lower than 2012 highs. Which means there is far more capacity for a run higher. So putting all that together, does it mean that the prospect of war with Iran is now gone? Below we present the latest naval update map courtesy of Stratfor, and leave readers to make their own conclusions…
This article was posted: Thursday, May 24, 2012 at 8:12 am