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Another paper showing evidence of a solar signature in temperature records
Watts Up With That?
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Readers may find the title familiar, that’s because Basil Copeland and I also did a paper looking at solar signatures in climatic data, which has received a lot of criticism because we made an analytical error in our attempt. But errors are useful, teachable moments, even if they are embarrassing, and our second attempt though, titled,
hasn’t been significantly challenged yet that I am aware of. Basil and I welcome any comments or suggestions on that work.
In our work, we used Hodrick-Prescott filtering to extract the solar cycle signal from the HadCRUT temperature dataset. In this paper the data are extracted from the ECA&ECD database (available via http://eca.knmi.nl ). According to the paper, they are “using a nonlinear technique of analysis developed for time series whose complexity arises from interactions between different sources over different time scales”. Read more about it in the paper. In both our paper, and in this one, a solar signature is evident in the temperature data. – Anthony
Evidence for a solar signature in 20th-century temperature
By Jean-Louis Le Mouel, Vincent Courtillot, Elena Blanter, Mikhail Shnirman (PDF available here)
J.-L. Le Mouël et al., Evidence for a solar signature in 20th-century temperature data from the USA and Europe, C. R. Geoscience (2008), doi:10.1016/j.crte.2008.06.001
Click for a larger image – Comparison of the mean squared interannual variation (left column) and lifetime (right column) of the overall minimum temperature data from the US (153 stations), Australia (preliminary, 5 stations) and Europe (44 stations). Europe (bottom row) is shown for the two types of calculation for quick comparison (green curves), and also the magnetic index representing solar activity (blue curve).
Abstract
We analyze temperature data from meteorological stations in the USA (six climatic regions, 153 stations), Europe (44 stations, considered as one climatic region) and Australia (preliminary, five stations). We select stations with long, homogeneous series of daily minimum temperatures (covering most of the 20th century, with few or no gaps).We find that station data are well correlated over distances in the order of a thousand kilometres. When an average is calculated for each climatic region, we find well characterized mean curves with strong variability in the 3–15-year period range and a superimposed decadal to centennial (or ‘secular’) trend consisting of a small number of linear segments separated by rather sharp changes in slope.
Our overall curve for the USA rises sharply from 1910 to 1940, then decreases until 1980 and rises sharply again since then. The minima around 1920 and 1980 have similar values, and so do the maxima around 1935 and 2000; the range between minima and maxima is 1.3 °C. The European mean curve is quite different, and can be described as a step-like function with zero slope and a ~1 8°C jump occurring in less than two years around 1987. Also notable is a strong (cold) minimum in 1940. Both the USA and the European mean curves are rather different from the corresponding curves illustrated in the 2007 IPCC report.We then estimate the long-term behaviour of the higher frequencies (disturbances) of the temperature series by calculating the mean-squared interannual variations or the ‘lifetime’ (i.e. the mean duration of temperature disturbances) of the data series.We find that the resulting curves correlate remarkably well at the longer periods, within and between regions. The secular trend of all of these curves is similar (an S-shaped pattern), with a rise from 1900 to 1950, a decrease from 1950 to 1975, and a subsequent (small) increase. This trend is the same as that found for a number of solar indices, such as sunspot number or magnetic field components in any observatory. We conclude that significant solar forcing is present in temperature disturbances in the areas we analyzed and conjecture that this should be a global feature.
…
We find that station data are well correlated over distances in the order of a thousand kilometres. When an average is calculated for each climatic region, we find well characterized mean curves with strong variability in the 3-15-year period range and a superimposed decadal to centennial or ‘secular’ trend consisting of a small number of linear segments separated by rather sharp changes in slope. Our overall curve for the USA rises sharply from 1910 to 1940, then decreases until 1980 and rises sharply again since then. The minima around 1920 and 1980 have similar values, and so do the maxima around 1935 and 2000; the range between minima and maxima is 1.38C. The European mean curve is quite different, and can be described as a step-like function with zero slope and a 1.8C jump occurring in less than two years around 1987. Also notable is a strong (cold) minimum in 1940. Both the USA and the European mean curves are rather different from the corresponding curves illustrated in the 2007 IPCC report.
(ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW)
We then estimate the long-term behaviour of the higher frequencies (disturbances) of the temperature series by calculating the mean-squared interannual variations or the ‘lifetime’ (i.e. the mean duration of temperature disturbances) of the data series. We find that the resulting curves correlate remarkably well at the longer periods, within and between regions. The secular trend of all of these curves is similar (an S-shaped pattern), with a rise from 1900 to 1950, a decrease from 1950 to 1975, and a subsequent (small) increase. This trend is the same as that found for a number of solar indices, such as sunspot number or magnetic field components in any observatory.
…
We conclude that significant solar forcing is present in temperature disturbances in the areas we analyzed and conjecture that this should be a global feature.
We have also shown that solar activity, as characterized by the mean-squared daily variation of a geomagnetic component (but equally by sunspot numbers or sunspot surface) modulates major features of climate. And this modulation is strong, much stronger than the one per mil variation in total solar irradiance in the 1- to 11-year range: the interannual variation, which does amount to energy content, varies by a factor of two in Europe, the USA and Australia. This result could well be valid at the full continental scale if not worldwide. We have calculated the evolution of temperature disturbances, using either the mean-squared annual variation or the lifetime. When 22-year averaged variations are compared, the same features emerge, particularly a characteristic centennial trend (an S-shaped curve) consisting of a rise from 1920 to 1950, a decrease from 1950 to 1975 and a rise since. A very similar trend is found for solar indices. Both these longer-term variations, and decadal and sub-decadal, well-correlated features in lifetime result from the persistence of higher frequency phenomena that appear to be influenced by the Sun. The present preliminary study of course needs confirmation by including regions that have not yet been analyzed.
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7 Responses to “Another paper showing evidence of a solar signature in temperature records”
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July 2nd, 2009 at 7:35 pm
I am surprised to see the Evidence for a solar signature in 20th-century temperature
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:17 pm
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July 3rd, 2009 at 4:10 am
WARNINGS
Subject: Russians order Flight Changes, after Massive Magnetic Shift
Date: 7/2/2009 4:18:37 PM
Russians order Flight Changes, after Massive Magnetic Shift
Body: Russians order Flight Changes, after Massive Magnetic Shift downs Airliners… PDF Print E-mail
Tuesday, 30 June 2009
Reports circulating in the Kremlin today are saying that Russian Air Force Commanders have issued warnings to all of their aircraft to exercise “extreme caution” during flights “in and around” an area defined as Latitude 17 North [North Atlantic Ocean] Latitude 3 South [South Atlantic Ocean] to Latitude 8 North [Indian Ocean] Latitude 19 South [Indian Ocean] between the Longitudes of 46 West, 33 West, 46 East and 33 East, and which covers the greater part of the African Tectonic Plate.
The reason for this unprecedented warning, these reports state, are the rapid formations of “geomagnetic storms” emanating from the boundaries of the African Tectonic Plate that due to their intensity have caused the loss of two major passenger aircraft during the past month leaving nearly 300 men, women and children dead.
The first aircraft to be downed by this phenomenon was Air France passenger flight 447, and which these reports say that upon encountering one of these geomagnetic storms, on June 1st, near the western boundary of the African Tectonic Plate close to Brazil’s Fernando de Noronha Islands, was “completely annihilated” causing the deaths of 216 passengers and 12 crew members as their plane plunged in pieces into the Atlantic Ocean.
The second aircraft to be downed occurred on the eastern boundary of the African Tectonic Plate today when another of these geomagnetic storms slammed from the sky a Yemeni Airways flight to the Island Nation of Comoros in the Indian Ocean of which of the 153 passengers and crew aboard, only 1 “miracle child” has been rescued, so far.
To the catastrophic events occurring within the African Tectonic Plate it has been known for over a year with the reporting of a “new ocean” forming in Ethiopia, and as we can read as reported by Nature News Service:
“Although the birth of an ocean is an extremely rare phenomenon on the largest of historical scales, the geophysics is currently experiencing such an event. Even more dazzling, this occurs in one of the Earth’s most inhospitable and arid regions, the Afar Depression in Ethiopia.
The African continent is literally unstitching itself apart just like the sleeve of an old shirt, along the area known as the East African Rift, which traverses it beginning with the southern end of the Red Sea, going through Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique. The molten lava beneath the Earth’s surface makes it thin by constantly pushing against it, and eventually breaks it and tears it apart.”
Though Western scientist assert that the formation of this new ocean is not likely to be finished for millions of years, Russian scientists state, unequivocally, that due to the Suns current unprecedented Deep Solar Minimum, our Earth is in danger of being, literally, “ripped apart”, at the worst, or nearing a “total pole reversal” due to an as yet unexplained, but extremely powerful, gravitational force emanating from the outer reaches of our Solar System that some researchers state is the mysterious Planet X, and which many believe to be a large brown dwarf and known to the ancient peoples of Earth as Nibiru, and called by the name of Wormwood in the Christian Bible.
Russian scientists further warn that the West’s “obsession” with manmade Global Warming is a deliberately designed propaganda effort to shield their peoples from the fact that not only our Earth, but all of the planets in our Solar System are currently undergoing rapid warming, and as proved, beyond all doubt, by Doctor Scientist Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, when in 2007 he released his findings that for the previous 3 years the ice caps of Mars have been melting at an unprecedented rate.
And, as reported by one, of many, dissident Western news sites, “Photographs of the merging of two red spots on Jupiter, evidence of warming on Neptune’s largest moon Triton, warming on Pluto that is “puzzling scientists” and, of course, the already documented warming trend on Mars all add up to convincing evidence for increased solar activity across the entire solar system.”
To the most chilling parts of these reports on the current instability of the African Tectonic Plate are those Russian scientists who assert, that, should a powerful enough gravitational force be exerted upon this region [such as that which would occur in our Earth’s presence with a Planet X type body], it would cause this plate to be subsumed with the Atlantic and Indian Oceans completely covering what is now known as the African Continent, and further cause a corresponding rise of what were known to the ancient peoples as the Continents of Atlantis in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and Lemuria in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Interesting to note about these current events is that the most documented psychic of 20th century America, Edgar Cayce, predicted that both Atlantis and Lemuria would arise again during the ending of our Earth’s present age, and which many in the World currently believe will be in 2012 as predicted by the Ma
used to be proud brit Reply:
July 3rd, 2009 at 6:15 am
Nice copy and paste
have your own opinion, or add a link its much better
July 3rd, 2009 at 4:14 am
I know the polar cap came down in the northern hemisphere to Camden road tube station Through architectural evidence.
so has It been melting for a long time?
and might me melting quicker than ever before because its smaller than before isn’t that common-sense.
It`s strange all the usual do-gooders
eg Greenpeace and the usual agitator trust- terfairians
(rich white rastefairians with trust funds)
Don’t know of this or choose to overlook this fact.
Isnt polution noyt as bad as previously in our worlds history?
ok we’ve got more cars ,but we used all coal fires and thick smog
now i have mosses and lie- cans (prob spelt wong)
http://www.naturegrid.org.uk/b.....pmoss.html
I live 30 min from the centre of london seems a bit strange being so polluted?
How come nobody is claiming victory for cleaning up the air , to what its used to be like?
ONLY DOOM AND GLOOM
July 3rd, 2009 at 6:01 pm
That was the end of the last Ice Age and yes, people do conveniently forget that their must have been a natural reason for it to end so quickly. Massive retreat of glaciers and ice sheets up to a mile think just melting away. All before cars, factories, Greenpeace and carbon tax.
July 4th, 2009 at 8:40 am
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