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Arctic (Non) Warming Since 1958
Watts Up With That?
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Thursday, May 14, 2009
From time to time we hear that various places on earth have been “warming much faster than the rest of the planet – as predicted by “the models.” One of the places commonly mentioned in that list is the Arctic, based largely on 30 years of satellite data. Fortunately though, we are not limited by 30 years of satellite data, as the Danish Meteorological Institute has records going back to 1958 and GISSTEMP has even longer records.
Below is a visual comparison of DMI 1958 Arctic temperatures vs. 2009, showing that temperatures have hardly changed since the start of their record.
2009 Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degrees
Below is an overlay directly showing that 2009 temperatures (green) are similar to 1958 (red) and close to the mean. Blue is mean temperature for the 41 year record.
So if the Arctic has warmed since 1979, how can it be the about same as 1958? The answer can be seen in the GISSTEMP graph below of Godthab, Greenland.
Temperatures have warmed since the start of the satellite record, but they cooled even more between 1940 and 1980.
Everyone (including NSIDC) quietly acknowledges that most of the Arctic was warmer in the 1940s than now – so they shift the warming argument to the Alaska side. However, that argument also has problems. Alaska temperatures rose at the positive PDO shift in 1977, and have cooled again with the recent negative PDO shift – as seen below. 2008 was notable in that Alaska glaciers started to increase in size.
If you look at only one leg of a cycle, you will come to the wrong conclusion about the shape of the graph. Thus I would argue that Dr. Spencer’s fourth order curves are much more meaningful than the nearly meaningless linear fits being used by most prominent climate scientists. Climate is primarily cyclical, as every good climate scientist should know.
Vostok Ice Core Temperature Records
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8 Responses to “Arctic (Non) Warming Since 1958”
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May 14th, 2009 at 8:23 am
Maybe the government is lying to us !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 14th, 2009 at 10:04 am
Perform an experiment. Fill a pot on a stove with water and ice cubes. Place a thermometer in that pot then turn up the heat.
Those of you who have performed this experiment as school children will remember that the temperature of water remained a steady 32°F (0°C) until all of the ice had melted.
The same is true of the arctic. Once the ice goes, the temperature will rocket upward.
Ray Reply:
May 14th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
LMAO!!! This post is so precious!!!
I have seen this somewhere… yeah right there at http://wattsupwiththat.com/200.....ince-1958/
storky Reply:
May 15th, 2009 at 4:40 am
Yeah, Ray old PAL (Personal Ass Licker)
I respond to the aggregator as well as source of the BULLSHIT analysis!
WATTS UP WITH THAT is an amazing (and amusing) source of disinformation.
May 14th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
Yeah and Algore wants to tax you dummies to believe in his BIG LIE , and spread the misery to all the people. environmental wackos aligned with the leftist government elites of the world, they will try to control how much you keep your house heated or cooled… wake up to the fraud of the global warming, its nothing more than hidden liberal government controls.
May 14th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Storky LMAO!!!!
As a student who graduated doing Geography I can’t tell you how wrong you are and the many factors you have not taken into account please go rabble your BS elsewhere.
By the way Storky can you tell me what happened in the Mid Cretacious period 100 million years go?
Oh that’s right YOU CAN’T !
There was no Antartic Ice sheet….it was 40 degrees celcius warmer at the south pole, and 20 degrees celcius warmer at the north pole….
and warmer at the equator than today
Yeah exactly 100 million years ago….do you know how big a change 30-40 degrees is and I am quoting from a source my University used for notes in it’s lectures.
William F Ruddiam world reknowned quaternary scientist. The book – Earth’s Climate Future and Past.
So seriously shut the hell up.
ps 500 million years ago – Snowball Earth Theory where the planet almost froze over.
get a grip please you idiot.
storky Reply:
May 15th, 2009 at 4:45 am
I can tell you what didn’t happen during that period – human life.
Nice red herring, Bozo.
May 15th, 2009 at 2:34 am
We need to expose this global warming scam if we have any chance of defeating the elites, because the way they’re pushing it, suggests to me this whole thing is pivotal in their plans for a New World Order.