You didn’t have to be a rocket scientist in the 1990s to
figure that speculative investment in dot-coms with no revenues
would be disastrous. The same goes for lenders giving mortgages
to borrowers with no job, no income and no assets. So after surviving
the tech bubble and while trying to extricate the economy from the
housing bubble, why are we bent on heading into the global warming
bubble?
Just this week, the Environmental Protection Agency issued its economic
analysis of the Lieberman-Warner global warming bill that is now
being considered by the Senate. The EPA projects that, if the bill
is enacted, the size of our economy as measured by its gross domestic
product (GDP) would shrink by as much as $2.9 trillion by the year
2050. That’s a 6.9 percent smaller economy than we might otherwise
have if no action was taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
For an idea of what that might mean, consider our current economic
crisis. During the fourth quarter of 2007, GDP actually increased
by 0.6 percent, yet trepidation still spread among businesses, consumers
and the financial markets. Though the EPA says that Lieberman-Warner
would send our economy in the opposite direction by more than a
factor of 10, few in Congress seem concerned. For more perspective,
consider that during 1929 and 1930, the first two years of the Great
Depression, GDP declined by 8.6 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively.
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And what would we get for such a massive self-inflicted wound? It
ought to be something that is climatically spectacular, right? You
be the judge.
The EPA says that by the year 2095 -- 45 years after GDP has been
slashed by 6.9 percent -- atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels
would be 25 parts per million (ppm) lower than if no greenhouse
gas regulation was implemented.
Keeping in mind that the current atmospheric CO2 level is 380 ppm
and the projected 2095 CO2 level is about 500 ppm, according to
the EPA, what are the potential global temperature implications
for such a slight change in atmospheric CO2 concentration? Not much,
as average global temperature would only be reduced by a maximum
of about 0.10 to 0.20 degrees Celsius, according to existing
research.
Sacrificing many trillions of dollars of GDP for a trivial, 45-year-delayed
and merely hypothetical reduction in average global temperature
must be considered as exponentially more asinine than the dot-bombs
of the late-1990s and the NINJA subprime loans that we now look
upon scornfully.
So who in their right mind would push for this?
I met many of them up-close-and-personal last week at a major Wall
Street Journal conference at which I was an invited speaker.
My fellow speakers included many CEOs (from General Electric, Wal-Mart,
Duke Energy, and Dow Chemical, to name just a few), California’s
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the heads of several environmental
activist groups.
The audience -- a sold-out crowd of hundreds who had to apply to
be admitted and pay a $3,500 fee -- consisted of representatives
of the myriad businesses that seek to make a financial killing from
climate alarmism. There were representatives of the solar, wind,
and biofuel industries that profit from taxpayer mandates and subsidies,
representatives from financial services companies that want to trade
permits to emit CO2, and public relations and strategic consultants
to all of the above.
We libertarians would call such an event a rent-seekers ball --
the vast majority of the audience was there to plot how they could
lock-in profits from government mandates on taxpayers and consumers.
It was an amazing collection of pseudo-entrepreneurs who were absolutely
impervious to the scientific and economic facts that ought to deflate
the global warming bubble.
In the interlude between presentations by the CEOs of Dow Chemical
and Duke Energy, for example, the audience was shown a slide --
similar to this
one -- of the diverging relationship between atmospheric
CO2 levels and average global temperature since 1998. That slide
should have caused jaws to drop and audience members to ponder why
anyone is considering regulating CO2 emissions in hopes of taming
global climate.
Instead, it was as if the audience did a collective blink and missed
the slide entirely. When I tried to draw attention to the slide
during my presentation, it was as if I was speaking in a foreign
dialect.
The only conclusion I could come to was that the audience is so
steeped in anticipation of climate profiteering that there is no
fact that will cause them to reconsider whether or not manmade global
warming is a reality.
The callousness of their blind greed was also on display at the
conference.
In an instantaneous poll, the Wall Street Journal asked the audience
to select the most pressing societal problem from a list of five
that included infectious disease (malaria, AIDs, etc.), terrorism,
and global warming.
Global warming was the most popular response, receiving 31 percent
of the vote, while infectious disease was far behind in last place
with only 3 percent of the vote. It’s an amazing result given
that billions are sickened, and millions die every year from infectious
disease. The consequences of future global warming, on the other
hand, are entirely speculative.
Finally, I was astounded by the double-speak practiced by the global
warmers.
Virtually every speaker at the conference professed that they were
either in favor of free markets or that they supported a free-market
solution to global warming. But invariably in their next breath,
they would plead for government regulation of greenhouse gases and
government subsidies for alternative energy.
It’s hard to conceive of any good coming from a public policy
in which facts play no substantial role in its development and words
have no meaning in its public debate.