So will Bush nuke Iran?

MICHAEL BURLEIGH
UK Daily Mail
Saturday November 17, 2007

Increasingly powerful voices in the U.S. are urging war against Iran to stop the country acquiring nuclear weapons. This week, in his Mansion House foreign policy speech, Gordon Brown declared the U.S. to be Britain's greatest ally and stressed that Iran's nuclear programme was a matter of concern. But how could the West actually destroy Iran's nuclear capability? Here, one of our leading academics on war and terrorism warns that some in the Bush camp are considering a very dangerous option...

To see how an attack on Iran might begin and then play out is not difficult.

Sceptical public opinion in the West simply won't buy any intelligencebased claims of an imminent Iranian nuclear threat after the lies that were presented at the UN to justify the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

And since 2004, the CIA has virtually no agents operating in Iran anyway, certainly-none able to substantiate intelligence derived from electronic surveillance and satellites.

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Any attack is therefore likely to be justified by an IED (Improvised Explosive Device) going off somewhere in Iraq, which kills a significant number of U.S. servicemen, and has the hallmark of Iranian involvement all over it.

A parallel might be the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia which killed 19 U.S. soldiers and was shown to be backed by Iran.

Strenuous efforts will be made to link any such bomb to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard - the elite force of Iranian President Ahmadinejad - in order to justify air strikes to suppress Iran's Russian-made air defence systems.

These consist of about 14 airbases, and the missiles Iran has stationed to command the Straits of Hormuz, the waterway south of Iran through which some 20 per cent of the world's oil supply passes.

These attacks would be the prelude to raids on the Revolutionary Guard bases and installations, which, after the Iranians respond, will escalate into a sustained air assault on Iran's many nuclear facilities.

Full article here.

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