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Between A Rock And A Hard Landing: Chinese GDP Prints At 2 Year Low As Inflation Still Persists

Posted By admin On October 18, 2011 @ 4:08 am In Money Watch | Comments Disabled

Zero Hedge [1]
October 18, 2011

Talk about being caught between a rock and a hard landing. China just reported (completely fabricated) Q3 GDP of 9.1%, which was the slowest GDP growth in the past 2 years and well below expectations of 9.3%, which has sent the Hang Seng index down to -3% on the news, and which confirmed that the Chinese economy is slowing… but not enough for the PBoC to release the spigots. Because just after the GDP data we learned that Industrial Production was chugging along at a relatively healthy 13.8% y/y vs Exp of 13.4% while new home prices gained in 69 out of 70 cities on the year. Unless China wants more spontaneous inflation “appreciation” days by its hundreds of millions of migrant workers, it will have to wait for its economy to cool even more before it does anything, meaning that even as it caught in a very unpleasant place, the aftereffects of Bernanke’s inflationary exports are still keeping the economy hot. And those hoping that China will be the much needed growth catalyst (sure, we may get the occasional RRR cut but that will be all) will be disappointed. And because suddenly¬†everyone is a China expert, yet doesn’t realize that 9.1% is effectively the equivalent of 1.1% stall print in an economy where 8.0% growth is the minimum threshold for social order and stability,¬†please read this [2].

China GDP:

Between A Rock And A Hard Landing: Chinese GDP Prints At 2 Year Low As Inflation Still Persists China%20GDP [3]

And how the number was leaked 5 minutes ahead of the official release:

Between A Rock And A Hard Landing: Chinese GDP Prints At 2 Year Low As Inflation Still Persists China%20GDP%20ES [4]

And a slightly more optimistic outlook on the situation, from Bloomberg’s Michael McDonough:

Slowest GDP growth in two years takes China one step closer to easing, which still may be a couple months away due to stubbornly high inflation, Bloomberg economist Michael McDonough says.

Headwinds in the export market combined with tighter liquidity conditions will also act as strong headwinds against Chinese growth over the coming quarters.

Growth decelerating slightly faster than expectations all in an environment of no RRR/interest rates hikes since July, external conditions are deteriorating rapidly and liquidity for SMEs is drying up

Either way one thing is certain: hopes that China would appear like a White Knight to Europe’s rescue less than a week ahead of the October 23 Summit, with a bailout package in hand, are now crushed.


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URLs in this post:

[1] Zero Hedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/between-rock-and-hard-landing-chinese-gdp-prints-2-year-low-inflation-still-persists

[2] please read this: http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Is_China_recession_proof_2366

[3] Image: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/09/China%20GDP.jpg

[4] Image: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/09/China%20GDP%20ES.jpg

[5] Chinese Pro-Democracy Activist Explains How Inflation Will Cause The Collapse Of The Regime: http://www.prisonplanet.com/chinese-pro-democracy-activist-explains-how-inflation-will-cause-the-collapse-of-the-regime.html

[6] Chinese rush to gold as inflation fears bite: http://www.prisonplanet.com/chinese-rush-to-gold-as-inflation-fears-bite.html

[7] Investors bet Fed action will bring inflation: http://www.prisonplanet.com/investors-bet-fed-action-will-bring-inflation.html

[8] Despite Two Thirds Of Components Declining, Empire Fed Prints At Highest Since June 2010: http://www.prisonplanet.com/despite-two-thirds-of-components-declining-empire-fed-prints-at-highest-since-june-2010.html

[9] Treasury 30-Year Yields Rise Most in 14 Months on Prospects for Inflation: http://www.prisonplanet.com/treasury-30-year-yields-rise-most-in-14-months-on-prospects-for-inflation.html

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