British-led plans
to destroy Afghan opium poppy farming, responsible for 90% of the UK's
heroin supply, have made little progress so far, UN figures will show next
month.
Britain, responsible for the international coordination of the fight
against the Afghan drug trade, is to call a donors' conference to raise
extra funds to combat the Afghan economy's dependence on opium production.
The conference will also examine alternative livelihoods for desperately
poor farmers attracted to the profitable opium market.
The conference - probably to be held in Afghanistan in November - will
bring the major agencies together including the UN, the Aid Development
Bank, the World Bank and the European Union, as well as individual
countries.
Britain has already provided nearly £300m to Afghanistan over three
years, including £70m just to fight drugs.
Afghanistan supplies 70% of the world's heroin and 90% of the British
market, making the success of the Afghan harvest a key determinant of the
street price of British heroin.
Preliminary surveys in the spring showed Afghan poppy farmers have
refused to abandon such a profitable crop. They have avoided government
eradication programmes by planting in more remote areas and staggering
their production.
In September, the UN is to publish its estimate of this year's opium
poppy harvest, but the Foreign Office minister Bill Rammell, just back
from a visit to Afghanistan, said it was unlikely to show any dramatic
reduction.
"This is going to take a long time and many of the fruits of our
efforts will not be seen until the back end of a planned 10-year
programme," Mr Rammell said yesterday. "If we are to provide a solution to
the problems of heroin that blight so many UK citizens' lives, then we
have got to come up to an international solution to Afghanistan."
He added: "Bluntly that means more countries coming up with more cash.
Britain has got a good track record, but we would like more countries to
match that commitment."
President Hamid Karzai banned poppy cultivation in January 2002, but
the ban has had limited impact in the main poppy-growing areas. A Taliban
ban in 2000 saw production, if not trade, fall massively.
Large tracts of the country most dependent on opium cultivation are
beyond the control of Mr Karzai's police force. Sowing can start as early
as October and continue to spring, making 2003 the first year in which to
the impact of Mr Kazai's ban and extent to which his writ runs in the
country can be judged. The poppy harvest can continue as late as
September, but the UN - using field inspections and satellite imagery -
gains estimates by July.
The 2002 figures showed an increase to 74,000 hectares (185,000 acres)
from the low of 8,000 after a Taliban-imposed ban in 2001. The 2002
production figures appeared to exceed the 1999 record yield. A quarter of
the 2002 harvest was destroyed, the UN estimates.
"Proper law enforcement is crucial," Mr Rammell said. "Without
sufficient capable police, the Afghan authorities will struggle to solve
the problem."
In a country where annual incomes barely reach $170 (£106), farmers can
earn up to $6,500 a year from opium production.Mr Rammell said he hoped
the best arable harvest after years of drought may encourage farmers to
return to legal farming. But analysts fear the good rains will increase
poppy yields.
