June 15, 2012
At least one country will leave the eurozone in the next five years, according to a survey of central bank reserve managers who collectively control more than $8,000 billion.
The results of the poll, conducted by UBS, highlight the concern among some of the world’s top central bank officials ahead of the Greek election this weekend that is widely seen as a pivotal moment for the future of the single currency.
UBS surveyed more than 80 central bank reserve managers, sovereign wealth funds and multilateral institutions with more than $8,000 billion in assets at its annual seminar for sovereign institutions. The results were not weighted for assets under management.
The central bankers and SWF managers said that a break-up of the eurozone was the greatest risk to the global economy over the next 12 months. Nearly three quarters of them said at least one country would leave the eurozone within five years. Of those, roughly a quarter said that more than one country would drop the euro.