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China may not overtake America this century after all

Posted By admin On May 9, 2013 @ 4:47 am In Money Watch | Comments Disabled

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
London Telegraph [1]
May 9, 2013

China’s Development Research Council (DRC) expects growth to drop to 6pc by 2020. It could be much lower. The US Conference Board says it will average 3.7pc from 2019-2025 as the ageing crisis hits. Michael Pettis from Beijing University thinks it is likely to slow to 3pc to 4pc over the next decade, deeming this entirely desirable if it comes from taming the runaway state enterprises.

If so, China’s growth may not be much higher than the new consensus estimate of 3pc for a reborn America, powered by its energy boom and the revival of the chemical, steel, glass, and paper industries.

All those charts showing China’s economy surging past the US by 2030, or 2025, or even 2017, will look very credulous. China may not surpass the US this century.

As of last year US GDP was roughly $15.7 trillion, compared to $8 trillion for China on a nominal exchange rate basis, the measure that matters for gauging economic power.

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URLs in this post:

[1] London Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/10044456/China-may-not-overtake-America-this-century-after-all.html

[2] China could overtake US economy by 2030: World Bank: http://www.prisonplanet.com/china-could-overtake-us-economy-by-2030-world-bank.html

[3] Roubini: India May Overtake China within a Year: http://www.prisonplanet.com/roubini-india-may-overtake-china-within-a-year.html

[4] China consumers to overtake U.S. in a decade: Credit Suisse: http://www.prisonplanet.com/china-consumers-to-overtake-u-s-in-a-decade-credit-suisse.html

[5] How long can America fend off the dragon? China overtakes Japan to become world’s number two economy: http://www.prisonplanet.com/how-long-can-america-fend-off-the-dragon-china-overtakes-japan-to-become-worlds-number-two-economy.html

[6] Report: Chinese economy will overtake U.S. within four years: http://www.prisonplanet.com/report-chinese-economy-will-overtake-u-s-within-four-years.html

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