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CNN Poll Fundamentally Flawed: Romney Is Not Leading Paul In Iowa

Posted By admin On December 29, 2011 @ 10:12 am In Featured Stories,Steve Watson Articles,Tile | Comments Disabled

New Iowa poll discounts independent, Democratic voters

Steve Watson
December 29, 2011

CNN Poll Fundamentally Flawed: Romney Is Not Leading Paul In Iowa 67041824

Contrary to what the Mainstream media would have you believe today, Mitt Romney is not “surging in Iowa”.

A newly released CNN poll [1] out of Iowa suggests that Mitt Romney is once again in the lead ahead of Ron Paul going into the caucuses. However, it is fundamentally flawed in that it does not take into account independent and Democratic voters.

The poll is making headlines today with other media outlets, such as The Huffington Post, claiming that Romney is once again on top in Iowa, having taken the lead from Paul.

Yet, as Nate Silver of the New York Times [2] points out, the poll was conducted [3] by using a list of registered Republican voters and registered Republicans only, provided by the Iowa Secretary of State

That means that independent and Democratic voters, who are easily able to register or re-register as Republicans at the caucus site, have been excluded from the survey.

As we have previously highlighted, a significant chunk of Ron Paul’s support is coming from independent and Democratic voters.

In a recent NBC News/Marist poll [4], Paul was the only GOP contender to lead in a head to head with Obama among independent voters. Paul also attracted 15 percent of Iowa’s Democrats according to the survey.

As Silver also points out, entrance polls in Iowa in 2008 indicated that roughly 15 percent of participants in the Republican caucus identified themselves as independents or Democrats on the way into the caucus site.

More telling is the poll also released this week by Public Policy Polling [5], which found that Ron Paul is in the lead in Iowa with 24 percent to Romney’s 20 percent. That survey estimated that 24 percent of potential Iowa caucus participants are currently registered as independents or Democrats and will re-register as Republicans before voting.

“The CNN poll is quite simply missing these voters and therefore will probably underestimate Mr. Paul’s support, perhaps by several percentage points.” Silver explains.


Steve Watson is the London based writer and editor for Alex Jones’ Infowars.net [6], andPrisonplanet.com [7]. He has a Masters Degree in International Relations from the School of Politics at The University of Nottingham in England.

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URL to article: http://www.prisonplanet.com/cnn-poll-fundamentally-flawed-romney-is-not-leading-paul-in-iowa.html

URLs in this post:

[1] CNN poll: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/28/cnn-poll-romney-on-top-gingrich-fading-santorum-rising-in-iowa/

[2] New York Times: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/28/new-iowa-poll-may-understate-pauls-support/?emc=eta1

[3] conducted: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/12/28/topstate3.pdf

[4] NBC News/Marist poll: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/IApolls/IA111127/Republican%20Primary%202012/Complete%20December%204,%202011%20Iowa%20NBC%20News-Marist%20Poll%20Release.pdf

[5] Public Policy Polling: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_1227925.pdf

[6] Infowars.net: http://infowars.net/

[7] Prisonplanet.com: http://prisonplanet.com/

[8] Last Poll Before Iowa: Romney & Paul Neck And Neck: http://www.prisonplanet.com/last-poll-before-iowa-romney-paul-neck-and-neck.html

[9] Poll: Ron Paul trailing Romney, Bachmann by 4 percent in Iowa: http://www.prisonplanet.com/poll-ron-paul-trailing-romney-bachmann-by-4-percent-in-iowa.html

[10] New Iowa Poll Shows Paul Accelerating Away From Romney: http://www.prisonplanet.com/new-iowa-poll-shows-paul-accelerating-away-from-romney.html

[11] Poll: Ron Paul triumphs over Obama in Iowa: http://www.prisonplanet.com/poll-ron-paul-triumphs-over-obama-in-iowa.html

[12] Paul Attracting Iowa Independents and Democrats: http://www.prisonplanet.com/paul-attracting-iowa-independents-and-democrats.html

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