As you may have heard, there has been no net warming of the planet since 2001, and no subsequent year was a warm as 1998 (admittedly a year with a major El Nino). A recent study by Keenlyside et al. (2008) concludes that “global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade” due to natural oscillations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
As Patrick Michaels of the Cato Institute explained at a recent congressional hearing, the suite of 21 climate models used in the IPCC’s mid-range emissions scenario (A1B) are on the verge of failing to reproduce actual climate data.
During the past 5 to 20 years, the observed trend in the average global temperature has been so low that it is starting to push the lower bounds of the climate models’ range of temperature predictions for that period. If 2009 is as cool as 2008 (with a La Nina brewing in the Pacific Ocean, that is not unlikely), then even the least sensitive of these models will be overestimating the actual amount of warming. And if Keenlyside is correct, and another decade elapses without significant warming, the models will have clearly failed.
(ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW)
The most important point for policymakers and citizens, as Michaels notes, is that if the models predict too much warming, then all model-based assessments of global warming impacts on agriculture, human health, extreme weather, etc. will be similarly overestimated.
So what do you do if you’re a climate alarmist and the world isn’t warming up as much as you said it would? Why, you redefine “climate sensitivity.” You claim that agriculture, health, weather, etc. are more “sensitive” to increases in global temperature than scientists once believed. You say that less warming than the IPCC warned us about will lead to worse impacts than the IPCC warned us about. That’s the gist of a recent IPCC-sponsored study, as summarized here by AP/MSNBC.com.
February 25th, 2009 at 11:16 am
“As you may have heard, there has been no net warming of the planet since 2001, and no subsequent year was a warm as 1998″
BULLSHIT!
Top 11 Warmest Years On Record Have All Been In Last 13 Years – ScienceDaily (Dec. 13, 2007)
Ray Reply:
February 25th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
Oh, Storky! You did it again. I told you to update your facts on AGW.
Hansen’s data were manipulated (again!) and a Y2K error was found by Dr. McIntyre at Climate Audit and the help of Anthony Watts. http://www.norcalblogs.com/wat.....t_yea.html
Don’t worry for your job though, I am quite sure the governemnt (your employer) will surely find another white elephant to have you work on.
storky Reply:
February 25th, 2009 at 8:39 pm
Bullshit!
storky Reply:
February 26th, 2009 at 11:36 am
OOOH that’s some serious investigation there. One data location in the US is disputed.
What about data from the other 1800 in the US. They’re ALL wrong?
I don’t think so, dimbulb.
storky Reply:
February 26th, 2009 at 11:49 am
By the way McIntyre and McKitrick are shysters extraordinaire. Their meta data manipulations of meta data are crimes against nature (pun intended).
Ray Reply:
February 25th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
How can you get to 13 from 1998 when only 3 in the last 10 years were hottest in the past 100 years?
storky Reply:
February 25th, 2009 at 8:43 pm
False premise, false conclusion.
Ray Reply:
February 25th, 2009 at 11:18 pm
With someone that can only respond “Bullshit” when confronted to the facts, nobody can take you seriously Storky.
storky Reply:
February 26th, 2009 at 5:43 am
You provided nothing but debunked, reich-wing talking points. We know they’re worth absolutely NOTHING.
I respond with as much as you deserve. A slap to your empty head.
Ray Reply:
February 26th, 2009 at 8:21 am
Show us the article that is supposed to debunk the truth please.
You are truely out of argument when you can’t prove what you say… keep looking for arguments, because there aren’t eny for your side of the lie.
storky Reply:
February 26th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Reread and follow the link in my post of
February 25th, 2009 at 11:16 am
storky Reply:
February 26th, 2009 at 10:42 am
It’s YOUR CLAIM bonehead, show us!
Frank Maloney Reply:
February 26th, 2009 at 2:33 am
Storky, Which record are we talking about? A record that began what 15 years ago? 30 years ago? 50 years ago? 100 years ago? 1000 years ago? 100,000 years ago? 1,000,000 years ago? 15, 000,000 years ago? 50, 000,000 years ago (and we are still at this point 15 million years AFTER the extinction of the dinosaurs). 100,000,000 years ago? 175, 000,000 years ago? 500, 000,000 years ago? Or the 4 BILLION years before that?
The last 10, 100, 1000 years temperature record is NOT unusual in geological history.
The ONLY way to detect IF human industrialisation has effected global climate and global temperatures in any significant way is to have a control to compare against. Now if you know of a parallel earth in the same orbit around the same sun, with an identical geological and evolutionary history as earth, but without the industrialisation, then we could measure temperatures there and compare.
the FACT is the temperature trend has been in a downwards direction for 3 years and there was warming to 1998, but there has been NO ADDITIONAL WARMING beyond that for over a decade now. Yes the earth IS still warm compared to the last 150 years, but the direction in temperature has not continued upwards in the last decade, it has levelled off. Now it is too early to tell IF this is a small blip, before temperature continue to rise, or an extended blip like the 1940 – 1975 cooling phase, or if it is the start of a new “maunder minimum” style mini-ice age.
Your highly unscientific retort of BULLSHIT adds NOTHING to the debate and ONLY characterises you as an ignorant, abusive dolt.
storky Reply:
February 26th, 2009 at 11:27 am
“Which record are we talking about?”
Consistently recorded temperatures since 1879
“The ONLY way to detect IF human industrialisation has effected global climate and global temperatures in any significant way is to have a control to compare against.”
You’ve clearly never heard of PALEOCLIMATOLOGY.
“the FACT is the temperature trend has been in a downwards direction for 3 years and there was warming to 1998, but there has been NO ADDITIONAL WARMING beyond that for over a decade now.”
I don’t know how to say it any better – BULLSHIT! It not a fact! it is a fabrication! Show me the source of your “data.”
“Your highly unscientific retort of BULLSHIT adds NOTHING to the debate and ONLY characterises you as an ignorant, abusive dolt.”
There’s no debate. You are wrong!
Being derided by Global Warming Deniers is a distinction I wear with pride.
February 25th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
HEY STORK…………………
………IT’S ALSO BEEN THE COLDEST. GO PAY YOUR CARBON TAX…AND WHILE YOUR AT IT, PAY MINE.
FIGHT FOR THE REPUBLIC.
storky Reply:
February 25th, 2009 at 8:41 pm
Bullshit!
Show me!
Rob in CT Reply:
February 26th, 2009 at 7:21 am
Seems pretty cold here in CT.
storky Reply:
February 26th, 2009 at 10:52 am
[sarcasm]
Wow!
I didn’t know that Connecticut in Winter was representative of annual Global temperatures.
[/sarcasm]
February 25th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
GREAT VIDEO!
Something to tell the world!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rT8cg62iKyg
February 25th, 2009 at 10:49 pm
Did everyone hear about NASA’s satellite that failed placement in orbit? It was for studying Carbon Dioxide’s affect on the environment! If that was a satellite sponsored by fake environmentalists pushing carbon taxation, I hope that set them back.
storky Reply:
February 26th, 2009 at 5:45 am
Actually, it could have put a lot of these questions to rest.
Happy about failure? Are you sure you’re not a Republican?
Ray Reply:
February 26th, 2009 at 9:50 am
If you were such aware of what is going on, you would know that the Japanese put a similar stallite in orbit last week.
storky Reply:
February 26th, 2009 at 11:05 am
“If you were such aware of what is going on, you would know that the Japanese put a similar stallite in orbit last week.”
[sarcasm]
Gosh, I missed it and I feel all empty inside. I’ve failed my evil corporate masters.
Harikari is the only honorable way to resolve this blatant oversight!
[/sarcasm]
. . . or not.
It would have been nice to have had two independent satellite data sources reinforcing the measurements. Alas, no such luck.
No matter – deniers will claim it’s manipulated anyway.
February 26th, 2009 at 4:46 am
storky,,,,try horse shit,,,i guess you think that might be colder than bullshit…..do yourself a favour and wake up.
February 26th, 2009 at 5:44 am
Show me or blow me!
Ray Reply:
February 26th, 2009 at 10:41 am
We showed you. Now, you can blow yourself!
storky Reply:
March 3rd, 2009 at 11:28 am
Well, you’ve shown me how to blow myself. That’s not what I was looking for nor interested in.
February 26th, 2009 at 6:27 am
“Global Warming” is intended to make us fear our planet. Societies have been controlled for thousands of years by manipulating us into believing in some fashion of the “End of the World”. Jews and Christianity THRIVE on it, and way back when, Zoroastrianism and Mithraism did the same. The fear serves the purposes of the political/religious rulers. Carbon Taxes are less about money then a way to bring that fear right into our day-to-day lives. (They print money whenever they want!) As Religion gives way to Science, and new discoveries help us understand our world, these would-be controllers need a “Scientific”reason to get you to fear your planet and maintain their power!
February 26th, 2009 at 7:15 am
The only thing worse, is there looking at desperate ways to Tax the American Public. Gore is nothing more than Pushing his job to Tax the public, By the New World Order Job posting to him. He was handed this Job to get this bill passed. How in the hell, can you tax a already troubled economy, that doesn’t have the money we had, a year or so before? The Weather has always changed. Mother nature is working as she needs to, but man thinks he needs to control that part of eco system too. Mans created this issue, but Man’s never learned either. Gore is nothing more than a puppet, looking to make his grade with the Elite. Were not going to lean his way and allow them to Tax us for something as foolish as they are making it out to be.
February 26th, 2009 at 7:30 am
Global Warming is a scam. The Bilderbergers have made it a point to use it to get their globalist tax or control schemes going.
They control the media monopoly so that is all that you will hear about. I have yet to see any data that I trust that tells me that anything has changed.
February 26th, 2009 at 8:33 am
geuss we better stop farting !!!…they smell it now
March 1st, 2009 at 9:23 pm
Global warming is political science. How do I know? First, the global warming alarmists have already stated that even if it gets cooler it will be caused by global warming, and second, they only trumpet the negative effects of global warming, NEVER any positive effects, when common sense alone tells us any change brings both positive and negative effects.