November 8, 2011
Such is the severity of the situation in Italy.
Here’s Deutsche Bank’s Colin Tan talking about the same thing that everyone else is talking about:
Its not inconceivable that we could be in full crisis mode by the end of this week. The situation with Italy feels increasingly like one that has little chance of materially improving until some
extreme pressure is put on someone to act. It may not come to a head this week but the signs are not good that we can avoid an extreme situation emerging soon.
The big problem: Berlusconi doesn’t seem like he’s in an urgent mood to make reforms, the ECB isn’t doing much, and China and Brazil have dropped out of the picture.
Hence we could get a big bustup:
For us there is no obvious near-term solution other than a stress event which prompts action.
Maybe the EU authorities will use the experience learnt from the Greece situation last week
that a hard-line response is the only way to force countries to act in the way they want. It is a
big risk but at the moment the weaker countries seem to still want the Euro enough that the
ECB and Germans could play hard ball and get what they want if they are prepared to take the
risk. Indeed ECB Governing Council member Yves Mersch fired a warning over the weekend
saying that the ECB often discusses the possibility of ending the purchase of Italian
government bonds and could if it concludes Italy is not adopting promised reforms. Such talk
will not encourage private capital into Italy meaning that the ECB may need to intervene more
to have the required impact.
For more on the matter, see Nomura on what to expect in the next 24 hours.
This article was posted: Tuesday, November 8, 2011 at 4:09 am