Wednesday, Oct 22, 2008
Global financial crisis has made it highly unlikely for the US or Israel to take a military action against Iran to halt its nuclear program.
Sam Gardiner, a retired US Air Force colonel who runs war games for government agencies, says that a set of recent developments including the financial meltdown has overhauled the Washington’s agenda.
He noted that the Russian-Georgian conflict and the US military operations on the Pakistan-Afghanistan are also among the factors that have changed the American agenda.
“The consensus among American decision-makers is that bombing Iran is not the path to pursue right now. I see players being more and more cautious about the consequences to fragile economies of an oil spike,” Gardiner said, Reuters reported.
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Mark Stoker, a defense economist at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London also says that any military action on Iran is unlikely.
“It stands to reason that it (an offensive against Iran) would be expensive, and they (US forces) are already doing a lot,” Stoker said.
Diplomats and analyst warn that any attack on Iran would risk triggering a greater crisis should Tehran halt its oil exports.
Some analysts had earlier predicted that Israel could attack Iran after the November 4 US election but before President Bush’s successor takes office.
“We have made it clear that an offensive option against Iran is not something we want contemplated at this time,” said a US diplomat who has had extensive dealings with Israel.
Iran, a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), says it has never sought a nuclear weapon, stressing that weapons of mass destruction have no place in its defensive doctrine.
This article was posted: Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 4:30 am