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Global Cooling is Here! Evidence for Predicting Global Cooling for the Next Three Decades
Professor Don Easterbrook
Icecap
Friday, Oct 31, 2008
In 2007-2008, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) and computer modelers who believe that CO2 is the cause of global warming still predict the Earth is in store for catastrophic warming in this century. IPCC computer models have predicted global warming of 1F per decade and 5-6C (10-11F) by 2100, which would cause global catastrophe with ramifications for human life, natural habitat, energy and water resources, and food production. All of this is predicated on the assumption that global warming is caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 and that CO2 will continue to rise rapidly.
However, records of past climate changes suggest an altogether different scenario for the 21st century. Rather than drastic global warming at a rate of 0.5C (1F) per decade, historic records of past natural cycles suggest global cooling for the first several decades of the 21st century to about 2030, followed by global warming from about 2030 to about 2060, and renewed global cooling from 2060 to 2090 (Easterbrook, D.J., 2005, 2006a, b, 2007, 2008a, b); Easterbrook and Kovanen, 2000, 2001). Climatic fuctuations over the past several hundred years suggest ~30 year climatic cycles of global warming and cooling, on a general rising trend from the Little Ice Age.
Now a decade later, the global climate has not warmed 1F as forecast by the IPCC but has cooled slightly until 2007-08 when global temperatures turned sharply downward. In 2008, NASA satellite imagery confirmed that the Pacific Ocean had switched from the warm mode it had been in since 1977 to its cool mode, similar to that of the 1945-1977 global cooling period. The shift strongly suggests that the next several decades will be cooler, not warmer as predicted by the IPCC.
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Global temperature projection for the coming century, based on warming/cooling cycles of the past several centuries. ‘A’ projection based on assuming next cool phase will be similar to the 1945-1977 cool phase. ‘B’ projection based on assuming next cool phase will be similar to the 1880-1915 cool phase. The predicted warm cycle from 2030 to 2060 is based on projection of the 1977 to 1998 warm phase and the cooling phase from 2060 to 2090 is based on projection of the 1945 to 1977 cool cycle. See larger image here
Global warming (i.e, the warming since 1977) is over. The minute increase of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere (0.008%) was not the cause of the warming- it was a continuation of natural cycles that occurred over the past 500 years.
The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling, perhaps much deeper than the global cooling from about 1945 to 1977. Just how much cooler the global climate will be during this cool cycle is uncertain. Recent solar changes suggest that it could be fairly severe, perhaps more like the 1880 to 1915 cool cycle than the more moderate 1945-1977 cool cycle. A more drastic cooling, similar to that during the Dalton and Maunder minimums, could plunge the Earth into another Little Ice Age, but only time will tell if that is likely. Read more here.
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17 Responses to “Global Cooling is Here! Evidence for Predicting Global Cooling for the Next Three Decades”
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October 31st, 2008 at 7:51 am
Gobal cooling !!! OMG , guess Gore’s going to have to go to therapy , trama caused from this new insight to gobal tempature changes !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
October 31st, 2008 at 8:36 am
In all fairness, real scientist who warned us about global warming NEVER said the earth would heat up the same way an oven does. They said there may be periods of trend reversal. They also predicted some parts of the world would get cooler. The Artic may be melting, but it is still very cool air that may travel to warmer parts of the world in new patterns. Nor did they say man made activity was the ONLY source of global warming. The global warming theory is unfairly being attacked on a popular misconception of what it was in the first place. It would be sad if we get a reprieve for a few years only to do more damage rather than use it as an opportunity to change things.
Furthermore, steps taken to combat global warming have other benefits as well. Cutting back on oil use reduces pollution and dependancy on foreign suppliers. Recycling cuts down on overcrowded land fills. There are solutions to these problems that don’t need to involve eco fascists!!!
October 31st, 2008 at 10:12 am
If you do resaerch on your own though you realize that methane in much more damaging than CO2 by almost 30x. not to mention that it makes up a higher percentage of total greenhouse gases than CO2. Im not opposed to recycling and all in all leaving a smaller footprint but to only acknowledge selct facts is ignorance at its best.
October 31st, 2008 at 11:03 am
I think global cooling is worse than global warming.
Global warming is a scam to get people to buy expensive stuff they don’t need. It’s also an excuse to raise your taxes, deny you the use of your property, and a propaganda entry point for the NWO to “save us all.”
October 31st, 2008 at 12:31 pm
globals cooling???? Do you know that where I live in Bulgaria today on October 31 was 35 degrees in the sun and 27 in the shade? That is an absolute record! Tomorrow the forecast is for even higher temperatures! When will you nuts finalyl admit global warming IS here.
yeah I know, England had snow, but they are way up north. Please get a clue and get your heads out of the sand before its too late!
October 31st, 2008 at 1:59 pm
I really wish PP and AJ would just drop this issue. They are really quite out to lunch, late to arrive and barking up the wrong flag pole. It has been know for YEARS that GW could cause a cooling in some areas of the planet. We are talking about a complex and yet delicate weather system here on earth. This is something that AJ et al just do not seem to comprehend. What they propose is that EVERY SINGLE CLIMATE SCIENTIST AND THE RELATED FIELDS ARE ALL APART OF A WORLDWIDE CONSPIRACY. That’s just too hard to swallow with peer reviewed papers, studies in the field and the like. Yet they quite often bestow major kudos and credence to “professors” who just so happen to be on the take from big oil and big energy and whom quite conveniently have been offering up the opposing opinion to which they will print, listen to and evangelize to no end. They also fail to recognize the IGPCC has taken YEARS at nearly a SNAILS PACE to finally acknowledge that our current climate is changing due to man’s influence. AJ et al tend to over simplify the issue by making sweeping statements that CO2 is a necessary agent and life-force and thus it is all a great big lie. If that was the case, wouldn’t the scientific consensus come to realize that if it was so patently obvious? Doesn’t such an assertion make nearly every single professor, student, or aspiring academic in the sciences a complete moron if they don’t come to the same conclusion? Doesn’t such a broad stroke statement bring the entire eco-scientific field under complete disrepute and thus, implying once again that every independent climate scientist, biologist, etc are all in on the hoax? This is all politics and posturing IMO. What if GW is real and man-induced? And what if the powers that be were using it to their advantage by punishing the public, storing their own seeds and milking the last bit of currency both real and imagined that they could get out of us as they drag their feet to the last possible moment before pulling the plug on the population? I’d sooner accept that from a group of elite, money hungry and power grabbing selfish and evil individuals than I would from a large contingent of reticent and nearly cowardly scientist who took approximately 35 years to declare that GW was man-induced.
October 31st, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Hey Petkov where is it that you live exactly?
According to the forecast at http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?world=0170 it’´ll be 13-21 degrees celsius in Sofia in the next few days… that’s not exactly hot…
October 31st, 2008 at 3:10 pm
The planet has managed to survive, you know for like let me think 4.4 billion years. So I think it has seen worse times I know cause I studied Geography at Glasgow University and in my 3rd year took Quaternary Environments, looking at ice core samples, glacies, past ice ages, CO2 changs etc. When the planet heats up like some people point out there is a counteracting force which weakens the initial increase in temperature. It is whats known as a positive/negative feedback system.
The Earth has possessed 5x more CO2 at some points in the past and thats a reserved figure it might be more. Heck the snowball earth phase which happened almost 500 million years ago caused the earth to almost freeze over.
But just cause us humans find it a little chilly and not to our liking we must change the climate system. No we should not touch it or influence it, the Earth will act on its own and return to a stable phase.
I HATE USING CAPITALS but
WHEN YOU ARE LOOKING FOR A PROBLEM! YOU ARE BOUND TO FIND ONE. In this case it happens to be a fear mongering of global warming. YES there is global warming, and global cooling, they are trends, so go fuck yourself when you want to comment on this issue. You have no right to say what works for the Earth its dynamic and has many geological and atmospheric processes we simply couldn’t create. Such as the ITCZ or the North Atlantic Drift where heat is transferred from the caribbean to western Europe to the UK where I live.
CO2 is one of the insulating greenhouse gases which keep this planet +15 degrees hotter than it should be, without it we would die.
As for the climate system, DONT FIX SOMETHING IF IT ISN’T BROKEN!!!!
The climate will dictate its own path has done before man and after man. So please stop going on about this like anyone actually can do anything.
All I can say on the matter is NO CARBON TAX cause its wrong to use an inter stadial phase(warm-phase) [unlike an inter glacial (cold phase)] …..in order to establish a tax when it swings in round abouts to warm and cold to warm again.
November 1st, 2008 at 7:12 am
Alan that is complete nonsense! First yes the climate has changed in the past and when it dos so significantly it devastates life! Go here for the biggest such shift (and within range of the damage we could inflict!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vT5maREf1qg
Now, you admit CO2 is a green house gas, tell me between ice ages and interglacials what are the CO2 ranges? I’ll save you the effort of getting up off your lazy behind it’s 180 – 280 ppm! Now suddenly – and completely unexplained by you, it has jumped to 385! Thats a difference greater than between ice ages to interglacials! Tell me how is life and humanity going to survive as we are with 1/3 of the planet covered in desert, drought on half, a loss of up to 70% of the worlds species, wars, famine and mass displacement? And all your worried about is a TINY tax increase – where the hell did you study?
November 1st, 2008 at 9:43 am
We are told that the CO2 (carbon DIoxide) is the result of the burning of fossil fuels. I want an explanation on how this is possible. The principles of fire are fuel (carbon), oxygen (O2), and spark. Fire always burns off 1 molecule of oxygen (O2) leaving only 1 molecule of oxygen (O1) which combines with the carbon of the fuel during the burn. The result is carbon MONOXIDE (CO). It is not possible to have any O2 as a result. You cant have carbon dioxide (CO2) or any other dioxide as a result of fire because there would be no fire since the oxygen never burned. To put it simply, if you stick a hose in the exhaust pipe and run it in your car to kill yourself, what do you die from? Carbon MONOXIDE (CO) poisoning. All cars today have a sensor in the exhaust called an O2 sensor or oxygen sensor. Why…because it detects the presence of O2 in the exhaust. If O2 comes out, whether its CO2, NO2 or any other O2, the computer adjusts the fuel air mixture because it knows the engine is not burning correctly. This is basic science…you cant have CO2 from fire.
So now that you know its impossible for fossil fuels to be the cause of the CO2 buildup, what is really causing it?
For one, CO2 is a COOLING gas not a warming greenhouse gas. A good example of this is fountain drinks. They use the syrup of the soda and combine it with CO2 at the tap. Make a fountain drink without ice and you will see that the drink is still pretty cool. Why…from the CO2.
We know that plants take in CO2, use the carbon, and release O2 back out for us to breath. When plants get stressed, like from heat, they quit intaking food and CO2. During a warming period on the planet, the plants get stressed, quit intaking CO2, which then leaves more CO2 in the atmosphere. This CO2 is the planet’s natural air conditioner to cool the planet when the sun gets hotter because CO2 is a cooling gas. When the sun cools down, plants will start intaking CO2 again and reduce the amount in the atmosphere so that the planet can warm back up.
I wish these points were talked about more instead of just saying “its the sun”
November 1st, 2008 at 10:51 am
Another point is that the “official” CO2 readings are taken in Hawaii. Volcanos give off all kinds of gasses including CO2. Hawaii has many constantly active volcanos. If you have constant active volcanos that constantly spew CO2 and other gasses over decades, its logical to say that the CO2 levels in that area will contantly rise until the volcanos stop. This is why they picked Hawaii to take “official” readings because it creates an illusion to support thier bullspit. So as long there are active volcanos in Hawaii, even when the planet cools again, they can still show rising CO2 levels to push thier carbon tax.
November 1st, 2008 at 12:51 pm
I just heard that GW Bush has been detained and held in camp David because he and his family was attempting to flee to their mountain hideout in Paraguay …
a 90,000 acre piece of land purchased 2 years ago….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bhr8jqy6xLI
BTW Obama was also swept to Hawaii
November 1st, 2008 at 8:34 pm
“The common enemy of humanity is man.
In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up
with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming,
water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill. All these
dangers are caused by human intervention, and it is only through
changed attitudes and behavior that they can be overcome.
The real enemy then, is humanity itself.”
- Club of Rome,
premier environmental think-tank
consultants to the United Nations
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
“We need to get some broad based support,
to capture the public’s imagination…
So we have to offer up scary scenarios,
make simplified, dramatic statements
and make little mention of any doubts…
Each of us has to decide what the right balance
is between being effective and being honest.”
- Stephen Schneider,
Stanford Professor of Climatology,
lead author of many IPCC reports
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
“Unless we announce disasters no one will listen.”
- Sir John Houghton,
first chairman of IPCC
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
“It doesn’t matter what is true,
it only matters what people believe is true.”
- Paul Watson,
co-founder of Greenpeace
November 1st, 2008 at 9:40 pm
Oh; how egotistical of the human race to think that we can cause the weather of the entire planet to change.
The planetary climate has been changing since the very creation of the solar system which was well before man discovered fire or even was wandering around looking for a food and a mate. I am sure it will still be changing well after mankind has caused its own extinction.
One thing is that we do not have enough detailed and accurate data to ascertain all the cycles that weather goes through. Climate by its very nature is dynamic and constantly changing.
To say that one gas is the cause of the current changes is far too simplistic even if it is in some small part a contributing factor. There is gasses that cause a lot more damage to the atmosphere than Carbon Dioxide.
Carbon trading schemes and carbon taxes only pass the emissions on to those who can afford to pay them. Only a select few will really benefit financially from these schemes. Is it any coincidence that Al Gore has one such company.
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is an essential component to life. All living matter on this planet is carbon based. Plants play an essential part in the conversion of CO2 to carbon for all other life. A vigorously growing plant takes in CO2 and changes it to carbon and atmospheric oxygen. The oxygen is used by other living creatures to breath and the carbon as fuel. This is the case whether the creatures directly eat the plants and/or the creatures themselves.
Even home gardeners in the cooler Northern Hemisphere know that if they grow plants in their greenhouses and increase the CO2 they get better yields while using less water. Extrapolate that to the entire planet and maybe we will be able to feed the increasing population well into the future.
There is a desperate need for us to clean up the pollution around the planet and move to a far more sustainable method of using what resources we have left. Recycling household garbage into compost instead of using artificial fertilizers as well as selective forestry harvesting as opposed to clear felling would go a long way to achieving this.
I advocate that the money being wasted looking at ridiculous schemes to “save” the planet would be better used in these projects. Schemes like wrapping the glaciers in thermal blankets to stop them melting is one that comes to mind. By the way the Glaciers are actually growing again in Alaska and the global average temperature has reduced over the past ten years wiping out most if not all the warming. Not that you will hear about this in the mainstream media. The BBC has a myopic view on Global Warming.
Will the environmental movement admit that they have got it wrong when they are skating on the Thames near the House of Commons again as they did a century ago? I think they will quietly slink into the background and start one another project predicting dire consequences for mankind.
November 1st, 2008 at 11:47 pm
There is just as many qualified scientists who disagree with the man-made global warming theory. So, why does the United Nations and the rest of the world only accept the theories that push their agenda of carbon taxes and environmental regulation. Who stands to gain? The scientists who believe in natural warming and cooling cycles that have put their reputations on the line? The only ones who are gaining anything are the elite. They are gaining the world.
February 11th, 2009 at 11:19 am
“…historic records of past natural cycles suggest global cooling for the first several decades of the 21st century to about 2030…”
Well that is good news. All of the Global Warming ani will be dead or SOL by them.
March 13th, 2009 at 10:32 am
Okay, I have degrees in Chemistry and Biology. I studied environmental sciences under Dr. S. Fred Singer. So, I have some REAL science background. Over the past 100 million years, the planet Earth has been in ICE AGES for about 80% of the time. Human civilization fared very well, 2,000 years ago, when the average temperature was several degrees warmer than now. We CANNOT survive an ICE AGE! It would kill almost all humans and land based animals. That might work well for the NWO types, but not the rest of us. BTW- ALL of the planets in our Solar system are going through a cooling stage right now. Since only Earth has SUV’s, I would suggest that the Sun is probably the source for “climate change”….