- Prison Planet.com - http://www.prisonplanet.com -

InTrade Odds Of Deal By December 31 Plunge To 2.2%

Posted By yihan On December 31, 2012 @ 6:11 am In Money Watch | Comments Disabled

Zero Hedge [1]
December 31, 2012

While EURUSD is flat, there is one market open (free of manipulation – perhaps) that offers some insights into traders’ perceptions of reality – however ‘cautiously’, ‘modestly’, ‘surreally’ optimistic the powers that be proclaim. InTrade’s “debt ceiling by Dec. 31st” odds have plunged to around 2%. A week ago, when we continued to urge readers to short the contract, it was at 10% [2] (and at 30% when we initialy said on Novermber 13th no deal would occur) – even as everyone and their pet rabbit was convinced a deal was going to be cobbled together. The ‘debt ceiling’ odds are implicitly the ‘fiscal cliff’ odds given Harry Reid’s insistence of the ‘bundling’ to remove every possible point of leverage [3] from the Republicans:

We would be somewhat foolish to work out something on stopping us from going over the cliff and then a month or six weeks later Republicans pull the same game they did before and say, ‘We’re not going to do anything — unless this happens, we’re not going to agree to increasing the debt ceiling,’ ” Reid said.

 

I agree with the president, it has to be a package deal,” he added.

At around 2% odds, this still seems like money good for shorts…

 

InTrade Odds Of Deal By December 31 Plunge To 2.2% 20121230 dc 0 [4]

 

Source: InTrade


 


Article printed from Prison Planet.com: http://www.prisonplanet.com

URL to article: http://www.prisonplanet.com/intrade-odds-of-deal-by-december-31-plunge-to-2-2.html

URLs in this post:

[1] Zero Hedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-30/intrade-odds-deal-december-31-plunge-22

[2] when we continued to urge readers to short the contract, it was at 10%: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-25/least-one-market-open

[3] Harry Reid’s insistence of the ‘bundling’ to remove every possible point of leverage: http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/budget/269613-reid-fiscal-cliff-deal-must-raise-debt-ceiling

[4] Image: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/12-2/20121230_dc.jpg

[5] Odds Of Debt Ceiling/Fiscal Cliff Deal By Year End Plummet To 16% On InTrade: http://www.prisonplanet.com/odds-of-debt-ceilingfiscal-cliff-deal-by-year-end-plummet-to-16-on-intrade.html

[6] InTrade Odds On Euro Collapse By End Of 2012 Now At 50%: http://www.prisonplanet.com/intrade-odds-on-euro-collapse-by-end-of-2012-now-at-50.html

[7] Rep. Ron Paul: House Republicans would be “foolish” to accept debt limit deal: http://www.prisonplanet.com/rep-ron-paul-house-republicans-would-be-%e2%80%9cfoolish%e2%80%9d-to-accept-debt-limit-deal.html

[8] Here’s An Insane Chart Showing Just How Much The Fiscal Cliff Is Being Hyped: http://www.prisonplanet.com/heres-an-insane-chart-showing-just-how-much-the-fiscal-cliff-is-being-hyped.html

[9] Paul, Lee, Rubio Vote No on ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Deal that Hikes Taxes, Puts Off Spending Cuts: http://www.prisonplanet.com/paul-lee-rubio-vote-no-on-fiscal-cliff-deal-that-hikes-taxes-puts-off-spending-cuts.html

Copyright © 2013 PrisonPlanet.com. All rights reserved.