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InTrade Odds On Euro Collapse By End Of 2012 Now At 50%

Posted By yihan On November 29, 2011 @ 9:08 am In Money Watch,Tile | Comments Disabled

Zero Hedge [1]
Tuesday, November 29, 2011

One can listen to Eurocrats promising the moon and the stars, and that the EURO.PK will survive come hell or high water, or one can trade the probability of the Eurozone’s breakup based on reality. For those who opt for the latter, they should head over to Intrade where the contract pricing the possibility of “Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2012 [2]” is now trading at perfectly even odds or 50%. In other words, the “upside benefit” of the EFSF, the ECB, the IMF and ultimately the Fed have been reduced to coin toss odds. Naturally, if there is a break up in the Eurozone the fallout will be massive and will likely lead to a far worse outcome than the freezing of money markets in the aftermath of the Lehman bankruptcy. In other words, the odds of capitalism surviving for just over a year form now are exactly fifty/fifty.

InTrade Odds On Euro Collapse By End Of 2012 Now At 50% Europ%20Dropped [3]

 


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URL to article: http://www.prisonplanet.com/intrade-odds-on-euro-collapse-by-end-of-2012-now-at-50.html

URLs in this post:

[1] Zero Hedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/intrade-odds-euro-collapse-end-2012-now-50

[2] Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2012: http://intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=713737

[3] Image: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/10/Europ%20Dropped.jpg

[4] Bookmaker bets Greece will exit euro by end of 2012: http://www.prisonplanet.com/bookmaker-bets-greece-will-exit-euro-by-end-of-2012.html

[5] InTrade Odds Of Deal By December 31 Plunge To 2.2%: http://www.prisonplanet.com/intrade-odds-of-deal-by-december-31-plunge-to-2-2.html

[6] Citi Ups The Odds Of A Greek Exit From The Euro To 90%: http://www.prisonplanet.com/citi-ups-the-odds-of-a-greek-exit-from-the-euro-to-90.html

[7] Odds Of Debt Ceiling/Fiscal Cliff Deal By Year End Plummet To 16% On InTrade: http://www.prisonplanet.com/odds-of-debt-ceilingfiscal-cliff-deal-by-year-end-plummet-to-16-on-intrade.html

[8] THINK TANK: 2012 Is The Beginning Of The End For The Euro: http://www.prisonplanet.com/think-tank-2012-is-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-the-euro.html

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