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Israel Planning a September/October Surprise?
Ray McGovern
ICH
Friday, July 18, 2008
You say you expected more rhetoric than reality from Senators Obama and McCain yesterday in their speeches on Iraq and Afghanistan? Well, that’s certainly what you got.
What I find nonetheless amazing is how they, and the pundits, have taken such little notice of the dramatic change in the political landscape occasioned by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s bombshell on July 7 — his insistence on a “timetable” for withdrawal of US troops before any accord is reached on their staying past the turn of the year.
Responding to a question at his press conference yesterday, President George W. Bush showed that he was vaguely aware that the timetable is, as Robert Dreyfuss says (in Truthout, July 7), a “big deal.” Bush even alluded haltingly to the possibility of extending the UN mandate still further.
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But it is far from clear that Maliki, who is under great domestic pressure, would be able to sell that to the various factions upon which he depends for support, much less to those which he must keep at bay. As Dreyfuss points out, Maliki and his Shiite allies are also under considerable pressure from Iran, which remains the chief ally of the ruling alliance of Shiites. Most important, Maliki is by no means in control of what happens next.
Israel
Here’s where it gets sticky. No one who knows about third rails in US politics would expect the candidates or the fawning corporate media (FCM) to address how those now running Israel are likely to be looking at the implications of a large US troop withdrawal from Iraq next year.
I am remembering how I was pilloried on June 16, 2005, immediately after Congressman John Conyers’ rump-Judiciary Committee hearing in the bowels of the Capitol, for a candid answer to a question from one of his colleagues; i. e., if the invasion of Iraq was not about WMD, and not about non-existent ties between Iraq and al-Qaeda, then why did we attack?
In answer, I used the acronym OIL. O for oil; I for Israel; and L for Logistics, meaning the military bases deemed by neoconservatives as necessary to protect both. Neither the House members present nor the media people seemed to have any problem with oil and military bases as factors-in itself an interesting commentary.
However, the suggestion that one main motive was an attempt to make that part of the Middle East safer for Israel (yes, folks, the neocons really thought that attacking Iraq would do that) — well, that was anathema.
As it is anathema today to suggest that this is still one of the main reasons, besides oil, that Elliott Abrams, other neocons — not to mention Vice President Dick Cheney and his team — insist we must stay, Maliki and his associates be damned. (See the cartoon in the Washington Times today showing Maliki and words telling him “We are NOT leaving.”)
Here in Washington we can sit back and quibble over the implications of such remarks by Maliki and other Iraqi leaders. The Israelis have to take such statements seriously. No agreement on US forces staying into 2009 without a timetable for withdrawal? For Tel Aviv, this is getting very serious.
My guess is the Israeli leaders are apoplectic. The fiasco in Iraq clearly has made the region much more dangerous for Israel. There are actually real “terrorists” and “extremists” now in Iraq, and the prospect of US troops leaving has got to be a cause of acute concern in Tel Aviv.
Keeping the US Entangled: Iran
This dramatic change — or even just the specter of it — greatly increases Israel’s incentive to ensure the kind of US involvement in the area that would have to endure for several years. The Israelis need to create “facts on the ground” — something to guarantee that Washington will stand by what U.S. candidates, including Sen. Obama, call “our ally.” (Never mind that there is no mutual US-Israel defense treaty.) Israel is all too painfully aware that it has only six more months of Bush and Cheney.
The legislation drafted by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) being so zealously promoted in Congress calls for the equivalent of a blockade of Iran. That would be one way to entangle; there are many others.
The point is that the growing danger that the Israelis perceive will probably prompt them to find a way to get the US involved in hostilities with Iran. Cheney and Bush have pretty much given them that license, with the president regularly pledging to defend “our ally” if Israel is attacked.
All Israel has to do is to arrange to be attacked. Not a problem.
There are endless possibilities among which Israel can choose to catalyze such a confrontation — with or without a wink and a nod from Cheney and Abrams. The so-called “amber light” said to have been given to the Israelis is, I believe, already seen as quite sufficient; they are not likely to feel a need to wait until it turns green.
So far, the resistance of U.S. senior military has been the only real obstacle to the madness of hostilities with Iran. (And one need only read Scott Ritter’s article on Truthdig this week to get a sense for why they would be chary.)
Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, Adm. Mike Mullen, has been described as warning the Israelis that a “Third Front” in the Middle East would be a disaster. I think, rather, he was trying to warn anyone who might listen in Washington, including until now tone-deaf lawmakers.
Even if the pundits are correct in suggesting that Mullen is joined by Defense Secretary Robert Gates in trying to resist the neocons and Cheney, Mullen’s tone at his press conference two weeks ago suggested he is fighting a rear guard action-against the “crazies” in the White House, as well as those in Tel Aviv. And when is the last time the crazies lost a political battle with such implications for Israel?
Mullen had just returned from Tel Aviv. He appreciates better than most the fecklessness of endless speculation over whether Israel or the U.S. might strike Iran first. Even if the Israeli leaders have no explicit assurances from the White House, they almost certainly calculate that, once a casus belli is established, their friends in Washington — and the troops they command — are likely to be committed to the fray big time.
Seatbelts Please…
Viewed from Tel Aviv it appears an increasingly threatening situation, with more urgent need to “embed” (so to speak) the United States even more deeply in the region — in a confrontation involving both countries with Iran.
A perfect storm is brewing:
– Petraeus ex Machina, with a record of doing Vice President Dick Cheney’s bidding, takes command of CENTCOM in September;
– Sen. McCain’s numbers are likely to be in the toilet at that point (because of the economy as much as anything else);
– McCain will be seen by the White House as the only candidate with something to gain by a wider war (just as by another “terrorist incident”);
– The Bush/Cheney months will be down to three;
– And Maliki will not be able to cave in to Washington on the timeline requirement he has publicly set.
In sum, Israel is likely to be preparing a September/October surprise designed to keep the US bogged down in Iraq and in the wider region by provoking hostilities with Iran. And don’t be surprised if it starts as early as August. Israel’s leaders may well plead for understanding on the part of those U.S. officials not tipped off in advance, claiming that they could not distinguish amber from green with their night-vision goggles on.
Would they hesitate? Please tell me who…just who is likely to turn on the siren, pull them over, and even think of giving them a summons-once the patrol car computer confirms their privileged licenses?
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12 Responses to “Israel Planning a September/October Surprise?”
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July 18th, 2008 at 5:52 am
There is only 5 words that can describe what happens next:
This Is Gonna Get Ugly
July 18th, 2008 at 5:58 am
THREE CHEERS for Israel!
They are smart enough not to have to wait for big brother’s blessing. Iran is a festering boil on the buttock of the world that NO ONE is willing to lance. And finally someone is willing to put the gloves on!
Who cares that the world will stop due to oil prices going through the hemisphere. Who cares that China will see its chance to take back Taiwan with all US forces tied up and cause a MAJOR fiasco. And no body will care that all of the people in Africa will definitely starve to death since the whole world will be more worried about themselves. YOU GO ISRAEL!
July 18th, 2008 at 7:53 am
Care to explain your reasoning, Mark? Last I checked, Iran wasn’t the one threatening other nations with an offensive war.
July 18th, 2008 at 7:58 am
Just like the spectacular October suprise that didn’t happen in 2002, or the one that didn’t happen in 2003, or 2004, or 2005,2006 or 2007.
Why don’t they quit reporting this crap until a real October suprise happens. Then it might actually be a suprise.
July 18th, 2008 at 9:04 am
Mark was being sarcastic Dyne. Lol
July 18th, 2008 at 9:53 am
israel planning september/october suprise…..
I dought that very much… israel will give no clue what so ever when they will strike…
Remember in syria…. they just attacked… with no warning, they just flew over the border and got syria nuclear reactor….
it will be the same with this possibly… they will attack with no warning, and then you will here on the news that war has broken out, between israel and iran….
America has to give the order… israel must fly over iraq to get into iran… so america will be involved or have priour knowlege to an attack on iran…
July 18th, 2008 at 9:57 am
September surprise indeed.
Think, for a minute, of the possibilities.
Mid September, maybe even the 11th. A horrific terrorist attack on US soil, the first since 9/11. Within hours, it’s pinpointed on Iran. Almost to the minute, an attack on Israel, not as bloody as the us attack of course, they don’t have the stomach to kill that many of their own.
what happens then?
Well folks, continuity of government, elections are suspended, the secret shadow government takes over, every aspect of your life is federalized and controlled by the federal government. Marshall law is declared, dissenters and protesters are rounded up and sent to halliburton “civilian forced labor camps”.
The US declares war against Iran, for 2 mutually inclusive reasons. They attacked the US, they attacked Israel, the attack on US soil provides the support (think post 9/11) for the newly declared state of war against Iran, the attack against Israel gives them a double green light, as they’ve promised to come to their aid, regardless of the support at home.
the new mandatory civil service for 2 years is instituted, wanna guess what service they fill up first? That’s right, infantry.
Iran, seeing the writing on the wall, closes the straight, cuts off the oil supply, and attacks US and Israeli targets within it’s reach. Russia comes to the aid of it’s new ally. China mobilizes as they desperately want Taiwan, and they desperately need space.
It’s all in the making folks, the cold war has already been started, thanks to that ‘doesn’t actually work’ missile defense shield.
the dollar crash, oil hikes, and housing flop have all be created on purpose, to get us closer to the brink. You have to look at it like chess think several moves ahead.
Why willfully destroy your own country? So you can step in with a solution, as long as we give up our rights you’ll fix it and protect us.
Problem = they’ve created it
Reaction = we’re reacting
Solution = they’ve drawn it up, just haven’t shown their cards yet.
I expect all of this to happen in the next few months, I’ll be very surprised if at least some of this doesn’t happen.
Or maybe another theory, they assassinate Obama just before, or just after he’s elected. Again, ‘terrorist’ attack, continuity of government, blah blah blah.
Maybe I’m crazy, but this much I know for sure. Governments do not go to great lengths to appoint themselves powers they will never use. Think about it. Why build ‘civilian forced labor camps’ if you aren’t going to use them. Why publicly call them ‘civilian’ camps shouldn’t that be prisoner, or terrorist, or something other than law abiding civilian?
Why give yourself dictatorial powers, if you don’t plan to use them. do you really think Bush passed those bills so Obama or Hillary could use them?
Even I give him more credit than that.
July 18th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Mark Forem…you are an idiot, go to the back of the class. What a moron!!
Well, we’ll see how loudly you cheer when you die of hunger in some camp. Have a nice ride, send a postcard.
July 18th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
ehh I’m not sure if we’ll see another attack at this point but you can most likely look for another one to happen sometime. they still have majority of the population fooled right now so they’re sitting happy i’m sure. trust that when they feel the time is right tho, they will pounce.
July 19th, 2008 at 6:01 am
IT IS TIME TO FLEE THE MAJOR CITIES OF AMERICA BECAUSE AN ATTACK ON IRAN WILL START A THIRD WORLD WAR. RUSSIA WILL NOT HESITATE
SINCE BUSH IS TRYING TO POINT MISSILES IN THE FACE OF THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE. IT SEEMS LIKE THE US IS DARING RUSSIA TO MAKE A FIRST STRIKE. DON’T FORGET CHINA.
July 19th, 2008 at 11:22 am
Keep your ’surprise’ predictions for next year, when Clinton or Obama are in power. In case you hadn’t noticed, it’s all quiet on the Gaza (truce), Lebanon (swap of hostages/war remains), and Iran (first official US contact in years) front. THIS DOES NOT MEAN PEACE IN OUR TIME. This does seem to indicate peace in the dying days of lame-duck Bush. The time for ‘cheap’ action against Iran has passed (we can all pat ourselves on the back for this small mercy).
Instead, the bad guys have been forced to fall back on the ultimate “take your time and do it properly” plan. No UK leader has led more aggressive wars than Blair. Blair is of the same political tradition as Obama and Clinton. My point is that Bush has proven the clear limitations of the republican movement in the US, when it comes to promoting a war agenda. Action now, before the democratic victory later in the year, would only leave the US public hating war more, and force the democrats to run on an anti-war ticket.
Iran can wait another year. It has no ability to protect itself against a full blown invasion, and never will. The plan to poke Iran in the eye with a sharp stick, and then use its outraged response to justify a much larger military action, is gone. Instead, the democrats, with their NATO allies, will simply build up massive forces around Iran, and then invade and take control, as with Iraq. Of course Clinton and Blair (or whatever puppets are fronting for them at the time) will need to eliminate tens of millions of iranians to allow the invasion to proceed with little enough effective opposition, but the mainstream media is wholly on their side, so you need never see even one corpse from this genocide.
PS Israel IS the USA. Israel has never ‘won’ a war. Every israeli victory has actually been an american victory, with american forces, equipment, and intelligence doing the hard work. Israeli soldiers are the most cowardly on the Earth, actually requiring several of them to act together for every child they murder. The israelis persuaded the americans to allow them to attack Lebanon alone, during the last war, and the israeli war machine was destroyed utterly on the ground. The americans had to ship billions of military nail-bombs to Israel (via the UK) so that the cowardly israelis could attempt to reclaim victory from the air, by saturating civilian areas with fragmentation bombs that they boasted would be killing children for decades to come.
July 21st, 2008 at 9:16 pm
I think what’s happening is Bush is gearing up for a war with Iraq that McCain (if elected) will be expected to carry the torch on. For that reason, I don’t think you will see an attack on Iraq till after November if McCain gets elected – and even then, probably not until after January when he takes office. Bush will not attack prior to November if he thinks it will hurt McCain’s chances of winning and keeping the Republican Dynasty in office. Nor will Bush want to leave office with his legacy being that he sent more boys off to die right before Christmas – the man is stupid, but not THAT stupid.
So IF McCain is elected, I would not be surprised if war with Iraq broke out in the summer of 2009. If he isn’t elected, that may all be hopefully averted.
BTW, “Mr. Walker’s Epilogue” (my song slamming Pres. Bush) has been nominated for “Best Local Song” in the Houston Press Music Awards.
Please take a minute and vote now by going to http://houstonpress.com/polls/musicawards08/