February 19, 2014
By early March “the US will be in the 2nd longest bull market of the last 80 years,” and as Marc Faber warns, “usually, these long bull markets end badly.” Simply put, The Gloom, Boom, & Doom Report publisher notes “it’s too late to buy US stocks,” warning of previous major declines like 1987, 2000, and 2007. “It’s not an opportune time” to buy US stocks but while it might be too early to buy some of the beaten-down emerging markets at these levels, Faber believes investors can make money in the longer-term – “I think I can make the case that over the next five to 10 years, I will make more money by buying now in the emerging economies then in the U.S.”
This is the 2nd longest rally and if we look at nominal market prices going back to 1900, we find that the current rally of 135.23% (as of January 27th close) ranks as the 7th biggest rally in history. As shown in the chart below the current rally ranks behind the 1920-29 market bubble, the post-WWII bull market and the “tech boom” of the 90’s.
Of course we have noted previously that stocks are not cheap in the US…
As you will notice, we are currently at valuation levels where previous bull markets have ended rather than continued.
This article was posted: Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 6:40 am