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Massive Beat? Not So Fast – Morgan Stanley Warns 42,000 “Jobs” Bogus Due To Seasonal Quirk

Posted By yihan On January 6, 2012 @ 7:20 am In Money Watch | Comments Disabled

Zero Hedge [1]
Friday, January 6, 2012

Enamored with the 200,000 number? Don’t be – the reason why the market has basically yawned at this BLS data is that as Morgan Stanley’s David Greenlaw reports, 42,000 of the 200,000 is basically a seasonal quirk, which will be given back next month, meaning the true adjusted number is 158,000, essentially right on top of the expectation. From David Greenlaw: “some of the strength in this report should be discounted because of an seasonal quirk in the courier category of payrolls (Fed-ex, UPS, etc).  Jobs in this sector jumped 42,000 in December, repeating a pattern seen in 2009 and 2010 (see attached figure).  We should see a payback in next month’s report.”

Massive Beat? Not So Fast   Morgan Stanley Warns 42,000 Jobs Bogus Due To Seasonal Quirk MS%20Courriers [2]


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URLs in this post:

[1] Zero Hedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/massive-beat-not-so-fast-morgan-stanley-warns-42000-jobs-due-seasonal-quirk

[2] Image: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/12/MS%20Courriers.jpg

[3] Morgan Stanley: Beat Deflation (or Inflation) with Gold: http://www.prisonplanet.com/morgan-stanley-beat-deflation-or-inflation-with-gold.html

[4] Gold Could See $1,800/oz On Seasonal Strength And Deepening Eurozone And U.S. Debt Crisis: http://www.prisonplanet.com/gold-could-see-1800oz-on-seasonal-strength-and-deepening-eurozone-and-u-s-debt-crisis.html

[5] Jobs Market Barely Budges in June as Hiring Stays Weak: http://www.prisonplanet.com/jobs-market-barely-budges-in-june-as-hiring-stays-weak.html

[6] Seasonal flu shot may increase H1N1 risk: http://www.prisonplanet.com/seasonal-flu-shot-may-increase-h1n1-risk.html

[7] US probing Morgan Stanley deals: media: http://www.prisonplanet.com/us-probing-morgan-stanley-deals-media.html

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