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Mike’s Nature Trick
Watts Up With That?
Monday, Nov 23rd, 2009
This is a mirrored post from ClimateAudit.org which is terribly overloaded.
So far one of the most circulated e-mails from the CRU hack is the following from Phil Jones to the original hockey stick authors – Michael Mann, Raymond Bradley, and Malcolm Hughes.
From: Phil Jones
To: ray bradley ,mann@xxxxx.xxx, mhughes@xxxx.xxx
Subject: Diagram for WMO Statement
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000
Cc: k.briffa@xxx.xx.xx,t.osborn@xxxx.xxxDear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,
Once Tim’s got a diagram here we’ll send that either later today or
first thing tomorrow.
I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps
to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from
1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline. Mike’s series got the annual
land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land
N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999
for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with
data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998.
Thanks for the comments, Ray.Cheers
PhilProf. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) xxxxx
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) xxxx
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@xxxx.xxx
NR4 7TJ
UK
The e-mail is about WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 1999 -report, or more specifically, about its cover image.
click to enlarge
Back in December 2004 John Finn asked about “the divergence” in Myth vs. Fact Regarding the “Hockey Stick” -thread of RealClimate.org.
Whatever the reason for the divergence, it would seem to suggest that the practice of grafting the thermometer record onto a proxy temperature record – as I believe was done in the case of the ‘hockey stick’ – is dubious to say the least.
mike’s response speaks for itself.
No researchers in this field have ever, to our knowledge, “grafted the thermometer record onto” any reconstrution. It is somewhat disappointing to find this specious claim (which we usually find originating from industry-funded climate disinformation websites) appearing in this forum.
But there is an interesting twist here: grafting the thermometer onto a reconstruction is not actually the original “Mike’s Nature trick”! Mann did not fully graft the thermometer on a reconstruction, but he stopped the smoothed series in their end years. The trick is more sophisticated, and was uncovered by UC over here. (Note: Try not to click this link now, CA is overloaded. Can’t even get to it myself to mirror it. -A)
When smoothing these time series, the Team had a problem: actual reconstructions “diverge” from the instrumental series in the last part of 20th century. For instance, in the original hockey stick (ending 1980) the last 30-40 years of data points slightly downwards. In order to smooth those time series one needs to “pad” the series beyond the end time, and no matter what method one uses, this leads to a smoothed graph pointing downwards in the end whereas the smoothed instrumental series is pointing upwards — a divergence. So Mann’s solution was to use the instrumental record for padding, which changes the smoothed series to point upwards as clearly seen in UC’s figure (violet original, green without “Mike’s Nature trick”).
TGIF-magazine has already asked Jones about the e-mail, and he denied misleading anyone but did remember grafting.
“No, that’s completely wrong. In the sense that they’re talking about two different things here. They’re talking about the instrumental data which is unaltered – but they’re talking about proxy data going further back in time, a thousand years, and it’s just about how you add on the last few years, because when you get proxy data you sample things like tree rings and ice cores, and they don’t always have the last few years. So one way is to add on the instrumental data for the last few years.”
Jones told TGIF he had no idea what me meant by using the words “hide the decline”.
“That was an email from ten years ago. Can you remember the exact context of what you wrote ten years ago?”
Maybe it helps Dr. Jones’s recollection of the exact context, if he inspects UC’s figure carefully. We here at CA are more than pleased to be able to help such nice persons in these matters.
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November 23rd, 2009 at 1:10 pm
Cancel their funding. If they were producing a gun that couldn’t shoot, you know the military would have cancelled them along time ago.
Quantummonkeybutt Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 8:16 pm
Thanks for Breaking Down The Details…
This Is A Really Complex Issue, But It Boils Down To One Thing:
FU&% THE GLOBAL CARBON TAX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
QMB
focused
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Thanks, best description of the “trick” that I’ve seen. Challenge is that it calls into question the reliability of the proxies, right? I found this through our CRU search at CRU real time search.
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:06 pm
The joke is on them! nobody believes anything the government or the media tells us anymore.
November 23rd, 2009 at 5:22 pm
His trick is real simple, his model that predicts global warming couldn’t predict real measured temperatures so he replaced the wrong data his model predicted with the real measured data. He did this to make a flawed (wrong) climate model that predicted global warming look as though it were right.
In essences he framed the suspect(humans) because he couldn’t prove it and of course even if the suspect wasn’t guilty of this crime he surely did something.
t-tommy Reply:
November 25th, 2009 at 2:11 am
apparently you can’t read…
November 23rd, 2009 at 7:31 pm
Believing that the queen, Bush Sr. and Kris Kristofferson are each some kind of ’shape-shifting reptoid’ is certainly whackier than buying the BS of Al Gore and the Global Whiners.
Just as Icke is often on Alex’s show (and AJ announces him as “The Great David Icke”), Alex himself is often on George Noory’s late night coast to Coast AM show, and that’s not really any different than being featured in the tabloid ‘Weekly World News’ next to ‘Batboy’. Those who are disgusted with the way Alex has Icke on the show often but won’t get Icke to denounce his reptilain $hit need to tell Alex so, and demand Icke apologize for hurting the image of truthers etc. in the eyes of the many. Eph 5:11, 2Cor 2:11, Psalm 94:16
louie125 Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:14 pm
If they aren’t reptillian shapeshifters why do they act like they are. Did they loose their humanity at the Bohemian Grove or through a Satanic ritual. It matters not what you call them. The principle is that they are not human as we understand it. They are predators of humanity.
November 23rd, 2009 at 8:17 pm
UNgate:
Bioterrorism Evidence
Taken from Jane Burgermeister’s website theflucase.com
“Evidence that an international corporate criminal syndicate, which has annexed high government offices inside the United States, is intent on carrying out a mass genocide against the people of the United States by using an artificial (genetic) flu pandemic virus and a forced vaccination program to cause mass death and injury and depopulate Americans in order to transfer control of the United States to WHO, the UN and affiliated security forces (UN troops from countries such as China, Canada, the UK and Mexico, etc).”
November 24th, 2009 at 10:02 am
do you f---tard’s actually believe that you can stop us, we rule this earth and will continue to run your life’s, you are meaningless,insectiod,reptillian,breeders that need caged
November 24th, 2009 at 10:36 am
uncover the evil devices in this huge chess game of deception
November 28th, 2009 at 7:16 am
my fear is that even though AGW has been sold as a fact, when there’s no evidence to support it, especially in light of the CRU “climategate” misadventure, is that here in the US for example, it has literally been put into various regluations, policies, and no to mention, taxes– too eerily similar to Nazi Germany, when a minority of fanatical hoaxers who also based their policies on complete lies, managed to slither their way up the chain of events back then, to take over control of everything– and overnight, the good citizens there, found themselves without a representational form of government, replaced by a dictatorial one– and were subsequently carpet-bombed back into the Stone Age by the Allied forces– the election in November 2010 may be our last chance to forestall the modern version of the Reichstag Fire!
November 28th, 2009 at 10:49 am
So sad to read these posts and comments. Please, read the actual articles that these quotes are taken from. Jones is further discrediting himself and his followers, I mean readers, with these cheap fairground techniques of sensationalism. Be skeptics, not just of those things you are naturally skeptical of, but even those things that you strongly believe. That is what these scientists were too weak to do and what I’m afraid many of you posting here are too weak to do as well.
November 28th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
Wow this would be a devasting email – if ‘decline’ referred to temperatures.
Too bad it actually refers to tree ring densities.
You see, after a tree reaches a certain age, tree ring densities begin to decline. Because of this decline, it’s more difficult to use tree rings to determine temperatures.
You can get around this problem by applying a ‘trick’. The trick is to take actual measured temperatures and apply them to the tree rings data after the decline in density begins.
For example, say you have a 100 year old tree. You look at its rings. You can determine the temperature by measuring the width of the rings. But the tree ring that corresponds to year 1981, and all the rings after it, gives a false reading. This is because tree ring density goes down after the tree reaches a certain age.
You correct the data by applying the real temperatures after that year. Not only does this fix the data set, but with enough data, you could create a calibration system that could be applied to other tree ring samples.
There’s this word – it’s called CONTEXT.
November 30th, 2009 at 12:15 am
Marc Morano breaks it down as well (I added graphics)
Part 1 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5DyNvhuUVM
Part2 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fesGE63eZ80
Part3 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-Bg3MpvzaM