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More Examples Of Holdren’s Spectacularly Wrong Alarmist Rhetoric
John Holdren, Ideological Environmentalist
Ronald Bailey
Forbes
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
President Barack Obama has nominated a Green Dream Team to guide the implementation of his ambitious climate and energy policies. John Holdren, a fierce ideological environmentalist, will be the leader of this team as the assistant to the president for science and technology and director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.
Holdren’s political environmentalism has been amply rewarded over the years. Today, he is the Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, director of environmental research group the Woods Hole Research Center and a past president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
In his salad days, Holdren was a fully paid-up member of The Limits to Growth club. For example, in his 1971 Sierra Club book, Energy: A Crisis in Power, Holdren declared that “it is fair to conclude that under almost any assumptions, the supplies of crude petroleum and natural gas are severely limited. The bulk of energy likely to flow from these sources may have been tapped within the lifetime of many of the present population.” This sounds very much like contemporary prognostications of “peak oil.”
In keeping with his dogmatic limits-to-growth convictions, Holdren joined his frequent co-author, eco-doomster Paul Ehrlich, in a famous bet against cornucopian economist Julian Simon.
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In 1980, Holdren, Ehrlich and Stanford colleague John Harte picked a basket of five commodities–chrome, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten–that they were sure were going to rise in price as they became increasingly scarce. They drew up a futures contract obligating Simon to sell Holdren, Ehrlich and Harte the same quantities of five metals that could be purchased for $1,000 10 years later at 1980 prices.
If the combined prices rose above $1,000, Simon would pay the difference. If they fell below $1,000, Ehrlich would pay Simon. Ehrlich mailed Simon a check for $576.07 in October 1990. Simply put, the combined real prices of the metals selected by Holdren and his colleagues fell by more than 50% during the 1980s, confirming cornucopian claims that the supply of resources over time becomes more abundant, not scarcer.
Despite his early peak-oil proclivities, Holdren did acknowledge in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists back in 1975 that “civilization is not running out of energy; but it is running out of cheap energy.” But even then, he was clearly convinced that energy supplies would become ever more expensive. More recently, Holdren has declared that even “peak oil” is debatable.
Also near the beginning of his career, Holdren introduced in 1971–with his colleague and perennial population-alarmist, Ehrlich–the concept of the I=PAT identity. Human Impact on the environment is equal to Population x Affluence/consumption x Technology. All of which are supposed to intensify and worsen humanity’s impact on the natural world.
History shows that the I=PAT identity largely gets it backward. Population is at worst neutral, while affluence and technology actually promote environmental flourishing. It is in the rich, developed countries that the air becomes clearer, the streams cleaner and the forests more expansive.
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19 Responses to “More Examples Of Holdren’s Spectacularly Wrong Alarmist Rhetoric”
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July 15th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
This guy looks like a three time loser with a penchant for pole sitting.
Social Viability Reply:
July 15th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
People like Holdren think that spending endless years at college is a valid substitute for a powerful intellect.
Men with such a weak intellect do not understand the power of human ingenuity. Resources become more abundant because human ingenuity continues to find new ways to get them and replenish them.
We will always have to endure fools with weak intellects. The problem is a political system that elevates these tools to positions of power.
The American political system has failed us utterly. If you’re fed up with being treated like a slave, stop acting like one. Stop running out to vote in elections like a brainwashed primate, stop listening to the grinning idiots on TV, stop using their money and stop supporting their system.
Don’t fight the system:
Replace it
http://socialviability.com/
Du bist einfach Hässlech Reply:
July 15th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
riding a bike without a seat
July 15th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
The CZARS are COMMISSARS. Guinea Pigs of the PHD freak show.
July 15th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
I wouldn’t trust this clown to lead a boy scout troop let alone the “Green Team”. More like the “Scream Team” or the “Dickwad Squad”, take your pick.
July 15th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
A MESSAGE FOR HOLDREN, DIE, SICK DEMENTED MAN,DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
July 15th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
A MESSAGE FOR HOLDREN(DIE, SICK DEMENTED MAN, DIE)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
July 15th, 2009 at 8:17 pm
http://www.imbuzzirk.info/test/ get paid to talk on the phone 602 717 6101
July 15th, 2009 at 9:00 pm
he is a demonic amerikan pimp..
July 15th, 2009 at 11:03 pm
So Holdren, Ehrlich and Stanford colleague John Harte lost their bet to Julian Simon and Ehrlich had to pay up, ey?
It should be said and remembered that Julian Simon quite obviously loved humanity and knew what he was talking about. Much like Buckminster Fuller.
On the other side, in reading Holdren and Ehrlich’s works, I get worried for good reason.
HOODWINKING THE NATION is a good book to start with Professor Julian Simon’s work. May he rest in peace.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:25 am
just went on to eric piancas site at UT jones was right this guy is a nut.. he has a bison named lucifer and there is a pic of him fressed as a druid. these are the types of dicks we are up against
http://uts.cc.utexas.edu/~varanus/Everybody.html
July 16th, 2009 at 3:43 am
History shows that the I=PAT identity largely gets it backward. Population is at worst neutral, while affluence and technology actually promote environmental flourishing. It is in the rich, developed countries that the air becomes clearer, the streams cleaner and the forests more expansive.
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Hmmmm. What about the other story on prisonplanet atm doomsaying that the water is already posioned, *AS IF* it were being done on purpose to decimate the population………
that doesn’t suggest Holdren’s I=PAT is backward or wrong – it suggests he was right.
So – prisonplanet numpties – is prisonplanet’s previous article right – and therefore Holdren too. Or is Holdren wrong, and likewise prisonplanet’s past article wrong also?
I mean – how can Holdren be wrong about I=PAT if the water is as (recently) poisoned as prisonplanet suggests?
Mojokabobo Reply:
July 16th, 2009 at 7:35 am
jeebus man, I want to agree with you then i see the anti-semite pun.. change the name man.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:46 am
MMS will counteract whatever they pump into our veins or our food or our water. Anybody that does not have MMS in their system will most likely die when the government puts their plans into motion. It’s that simple… Save yourself and your whole family for 20 bucks or wither away and die like the want you to. People! This is very serious!! Heed this warning! Protect yourselves, oh and by the way, never get sick again…
July 16th, 2009 at 4:14 am
From a prisonplanet advertiser:
“…the true food shortages which have sparked riots in other countries have thus far escaped the USA. It is foolish to think we are immune forever.”
But Holdren was *wrong*, and considering population control is *wrong*? Even though prisonplanet take advertising money and stuff the adverts in your face saying *THERE’S A FOOD CRISIS COMING!!!”?
rob Reply:
July 16th, 2009 at 8:26 pm
Wasn’t Sonia Sotomayor born to a single mother? A mother that lived in the projects?
Wonder what Holdren would have done?
July 16th, 2009 at 8:13 am
Aunty semite: I agree in one instance, first off, if population is at worst neutral what happened to Easter island’s previous inhabitants? Its relevant on a smaller scale. And secondly, SHOW me how technology improves streams and air? As far as I can tell lake Ontario is a cess pool due directly to the tecnology which has lengthened our lives and and also made us slaves to whoever controlls it. Technology makes life easier, when you’re stupid enough to look the other way and not see the drawbacks. Nuclear waste has entered the environment, why do we get so much cancer? Its because of us, and how we choose to live. I DO believe that, however killing almost everyone to save a few is a little much for anyone to decide they have the right to act upon.
July 20th, 2009 at 11:24 pm
[...] is worth noting that Holdren has been spectacularly wrong on things like energy policy. He and some academic colleagues famously bet economist Julian Simon [...]
July 27th, 2009 at 7:55 am
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