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No significant global warming since 1995
Jarl R. Ahlbeck
Facts & Arts
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2008
The writer is D.Sc. and lecturer at Abo Akademi University, Finland
The recovery of the earth’s climate from the little ice age started about 200 years ago, but the concentration of the atmospheric carbon dioxide started to increase significantly as late as in the 1950s, probably due to rapidly increased burning of fossil fuels.
The climate recovery is still an ongoing process today. A natural warming rate of roughly 0.5 deg C /100 years has been the baseline for more than 100 years, but both short (a few years) and long (20 years) fluctuations around the baseline have occurred for natural but highly speculative reasons, for example a rapid warming in the 1930s followed by a cooling period, and recently again warming until about 1998.
According to the UK climate panel IPCC, this last warming period has been forced by increased carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. There is however no proof of that and the theory of how carbon dioxide influences the global mean temperature is complicated and unreliable. And if the global temperature again starts to increase slower than the natural long-term trend of 0.5 deg C/100 years, or even starts to cool, we can be quite certain that the recent faster warming trends have been natural too.
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It has been widely discussed if the satellite-derived global temperature measurements that show only little warming should be more reliable than the temperatures obtained on the ground that show more warming. But after 1995 both sources show about the same, (see graphs below drawn from Hadley-data (ground) and satellite data (NASA)).
A good reason to start a diagram from 1995 is that since that year no big (cooling) volcano eruptions have disturbed the temperature trend. Contrary to common belief, there has been no or little global warming since 1995 and this is shown by two completely independent datasets.
The curves look very normal and it seems probable that the natural recovery from the little ice age has went on without any significant decelerations or accelerations caused by human activity.
It is impossible to say what is going to happen in the future. But so far, real measurements give no ground for concern about a catastrophic future warming.
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13 Responses to “No significant global warming since 1995”
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October 15th, 2008 at 6:00 am
Well apart from this year all out of the last 8 have been on average higher than 1995. Furthermore they’ve been much higher than 1996 which would be equally as good a year to choose as a starting point. This is more poor interpretation of statistics posing as evidence.
October 15th, 2008 at 6:26 am
Let’s get the word out on Agenda 21!
October 15th, 2008 at 6:49 am
maybe if marquis cha cha would look at the units on the graphs he would see that the temperature change isn’t even an increase of 1 degree. who taught you how to read a graph. oh my god the graph goes way higher than where it started this is obviously poor interpretation. oh wait it only rises by about a degree. deee. it’s called making a good window so the graph looks good. go back to school.
October 15th, 2008 at 7:37 am
Only idiots think the weather should remain static. The weather always changes.
Normally there is NO ICE anywhere on the planet. That is Earth’s Historical normal state, NO ICE on the entire planet. Only during an Ice Age, like we are in now, is there any ice on planet Earth.
Global Warming idiots are simply idiots.
Global Warming is good or half the Northern USA would still be under Ice.
Warm weather = Life
Cold weatehr = DEATH
Global Warming Fascists are just like War on Terror Fascists, BOTH brainwashed fascist ideologies think the US should control the world.
Soon these Global Warming idiots will be calling for war/death on whoever does not believe in their ignorant bullshi*.
October 15th, 2008 at 8:01 am
It is misconception that thickness of ice dependends only on temperature. It is rather more dependent on humidity. You can have low average temperature and ice can still disapeare from the poles. The driest continent is Antarctica. And there are areas in the interior where there is no ice.
October 15th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
#3
No-one’s saying that it’s an increase of 1 degree but since when has that been the level at which a temperature increase becomes ’significant’? If the temperature was to increase even half a degree every ten years for the next century the world would be significantly altered. The point is that the average temperature for the years 1995-1997 is about 0.25C to 0.3C lower than 2001 to 2007. Even at its very brief peak within the former period it still struggles to get up to the average of the latter. Further to that the former period is generally higher than those preceding in the early 90’s, 80’s, 70’s and so on.
As for the rest of your point: I’m largely of the same mind as you - I’m not sure what you’re trying to say either.
October 15th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
“They want a fascist planet with the superwealthy ruling it all
Since we’re too independent, America must be led to fall
When our credit’s been exhausted to subdue the Middle East,
They’ll install our debtor nation in the body of The Beast
Traitor…Dare call it treason”
–The Cornbread Mafia
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uw5dP5gy2Vs
October 16th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
the un makes the world pay carbon taxes
October 16th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
For those of you, who simply apply common sense to your daily life, you see -
everywhere around you - the obvious changes in the environment and in our world wide ecology.
All headed in the same and in the wrong direction. Today, while enduring temperatures that are 9 degrees higher than normal, Greenland has once again lost record ice quantities for the year.
We live in a bubble. We have the entire world industrializing it’s societies. The planet is suffering the effects. Only a stupid idiot, could not rationally deduct the obvious.
October 17th, 2008 at 6:12 am
Ian, don’t try passing off your distorted views as what everyone should consider to be common sense. Your claims to ‘obvious changes in the enviornment and in our world wide ecology’ are insubstantiated and flat out fear mongering. You provide no backup to any of your vague statements, like it being 9 degrees above normal (normal as compared to what?) and that that greenland has lost a record amount of ice.
The truth is that the world has been much warmer than this, and it has actually flourished (link not on-hand, look up the medieval warm period). The truth is that the climate does change naturally over time. Here’s a little question for you, why do you think Greenland, that ice covered island in the North Atlantic, is called Greenland? Because it use to be green! Vikings use to farm on it about 600 to 1000 years ago! ( http://www.expressnews.ualbert.....cfm?id=776 ) They had several successful farming settlements there for about 400 years until everything cooled down and the glaciers covered everything in sand.
And our climate is not in a bubble. I don’t know if you noticed or not, but our tides are actually caused cause by the gravity of our moon. Our sole source of heat for this planet is from the sun, which is not always constant, there are periods where it is more active than others (look up sunspots). While ice core data shows that the changes in CO2 are about 800 years behind the change in temperature, there is a much tighter correlation between temperature and the frequency of sunspots. (Link not handy, I’ll have to provide later).
The planet is not suffering, for all we know, the world is fine and doing what it’s suppose to do. Whether it’s heating or cooling, we have no control over it. The work has naturally been much much warmer, and much much colder, and we are still here. No matter what, we will find a way to adapt without having to give up our way of life. Only a stupid idiot would follow this over-hyped propganda. Following it would put an screeching halt on all the progress we have made as a species.
October 19th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Ian, I take it you’ve been out with your measuring tape and thermometer, and you’ve seen these things for yourself? Or are you maybe taking someone’s word for it? Yes, we are all in a bubble, as most of us live in a city and are in no real position to see or measure climatic data for ourselves. It’s a choice of who you want to believe. If you want to believe the cult of Gore (I don’t, and I might be wrong), that’s your choice, and you can call people who don’t agree with you names, if that makes you feel better or smarter. It doesn’t usually add a whole lot of credibility to your “factual” presentation. Consider this: it could turn out that you are the stupid idiot. It remains to be seen.
October 29th, 2008 at 5:51 am
Climate change IS happening, I don’t think there is any doubt about that really. Whether it’s us that’s responsible or even CO2 for that matter, is a whole nother matter.
In the seventies we were being warned of an impending ice age, then it was global warming. There’s always something to be fearful of. The fact is, the climate always changes and we may very well be due a major change of some sort right about now. Turning off your DVD player at night isn’t going to stop that.
February 25th, 2009 at 4:15 am
Hi! mBOuws