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Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds

Posted By admin On November 6, 2012 @ 6:40 am In Featured Stories,Tile,U.S. News | Comments Disabled

NATE SILVER
NY Times [1]
Nov 6, 2012

Mitt Romney has always had difficulty drawing a winning Electoral College hand. Even during his best period of polling, in the week or two after the first presidential debate in Denver, he never quite pulled ahead in the polling averages in Ohio and other states that would allow him to secure 270 electoral votes.

But the most recent set of polls suggest another problem for Mr. Romney, whose momentum in the polls stalled out [2] in mid-October. Instead, it is President Obama who is making gains.

Among 12 national polls published on Monday, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points. Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one.

Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds fivethirtyeight 1106 1 custom1

Because these surveys had large sample sizes, the trend is both statistically and practically meaningful. Whether because of Hurricane Sandy, the relatively good economic news of late, or other factors, Mr. Obama appears to have gained ground in the closing days of the race.

Full article here [1]


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URLs in this post:

[1] NY Times: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/06/nov-5-late-poll-gains-for-obama-leave-romney-with-longer-odds/

[2] momentum in the polls stalled out: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/25/oct-24-in-polls-romneys-momentum-seems-to-have-stopped/

[3] REUTERS POLL: The Race Is Dead Even, But Obama Is Crushing Mitt Romney In The Electoral College: http://www.prisonplanet.com/reuters-poll-the-race-is-dead-even-but-obama-is-crushing-mitt-romney-in-the-electoral-college.html

[4] Presidential Polls Ohio: Race Still Close Between Obama, Romney: http://www.prisonplanet.com/presidential-polls-ohio-race-still-close-between-obama-romney.html

[5] Final Ohio Poll shows Romney, Obama in virtual dead heat: http://www.prisonplanet.com/final-ohio-poll-shows-romney-obama-in-virtual-dead-heat.html

[6] NATE SILVER: Obama’s Odds Of Winning Have Now Hit 85%: http://www.prisonplanet.com/nate-silver-obamas-odds-of-winning-have-now-hit-85.html

[7] Poll: Ron Paul is the GOP’s best bet against Obama in New Hampshire: http://www.prisonplanet.com/poll-ron-paul-is-the-gop%e2%80%99s-best-bet-against-obama-in-new-hampshire.html

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