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November Trade Deficit Slides 13%, Lowest Since October 2009, Exports Rise To Record

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Zero Hedge
January 7, 2014

Following October’s disappointing bounce in the US trade deficit, it was only expected that the November data would come leaps and bounds ahead of the expected $40 billion print, instead sliding 12.9% to $34.3 billion from October’s revised $39.3 billion – this was the lowest monthly trade deficit since October 2009. The delta was the result of a modest boost in exports, up $1.7 billion, to a record high of $194.9 billion, compounded by a more pronounced slide in imports, which were $3.4 billion less than October’s $232.5 billion. Some other highlights: exports to China climbed to a record high (we certainly expect “matching” Chinese exports to the US to also rise to a record when reported next), while the US petroleum deficit was the lowest since May 2009 thanks to shale.

Charting US Trade:

November Trade Deficit Slides 13%, Lowest Since October 2009, Exports Rise To Record 20140107 trade 0

And just with China:

November Trade Deficit Slides 13%, Lowest Since October 2009, Exports Rise To Record 20140107 trade1 0

Key increaseas and decreases of exports and imports:

November Trade Deficit Slides 13%, Lowest Since October 2009, Exports Rise To Record Trade%20December%20increases%20and%20decreases 0

Trade with some key trading partners:

 

  • The goods deficit with China decreased from $28.9 billion in October to $26.9 billion in November. Exports increased $0.1 billion (primarily soybeans and corn) to $13.2 billion, while imports decreased $1.8 billion (primarily toys, games, and sporting goods and apparel) to $40.1 billion.

 

  • The goods deficit with the European Union decreased from $14.3 billion in October to $10.1 billion in November. Exports decreased $0.2 billion (primarily artwork, antiques, stamps, etc. and organic chemicals) to $22.9 billion, while imports decreased $4.4 billion (primarily pharmaceutical preparations) to $33.0 billion.

 

  • The goods deficit with Canada decreased from $2.8 billion in October to $1.5 billion in November. Exports decreased $1.3 billion (primarily petroleum products and automobiles) to $25.7 billion, while imports decreased $2.7 billion (primarily crude oil) to $27.1 billion.

 

A visual summary from Bloomberg:

November Trade Deficit Slides 13%, Lowest Since October 2009, Exports Rise To Record Trade%20December%20move 0

Breaking down the goods trade by category:

 

  • The October to November increase in exports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($0.7 billion); other goods ($0.5 billion); capital goods ($0.3 billion); and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.1 billion). Decreases occurred in consumer goods ($0.5 billion) and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.1 billion).

 

  • The October to November decrease in imports of goods reflected decreases in industrial supplies and materials ($4.3 billion); other goods ($0.8 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.3 billion); and consumer goods ($0.1 billion). Increases occurred in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.1 billion) and capital goods ($0.9 billion).

 

  • The November 2012 to November 2013 increase in exports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($3.1 billion); capital goods ($1.2 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($1.1 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.8 billion); other goods ($0.6 billion); and consumer goods ($0.5 billion).

 

  • The November 2012 to November 2013 decrease in imports of goods reflected decreases in industrial supplies and materials ($6.9 billion); other goods ($0.3 billion); and consumer goods ($0.3 billion). Increases occurred in capital goods ($2.2 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.6 billion); and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.2 billion)

 

And since the net impact of the plunge in the deficit means a higher Q4 GDP estimate by about 0.3% (and an offset of weaker Q1 GDP when the drop in imports will come back to haunt the US), it also means that the Fed will likely extract another $10 billion from the monthly QE flow at its next opportunity.

This article was posted: Tuesday, January 7, 2014 at 9:37 am





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