Irwin Stelzer
London Times
Monday, Nov 23rd, 2009
Visitors to America might have noticed the television ads urging us to buy gold. One such “spokesman”, formerly in charge of managing the government’s hoard of the yellow stuff, including the ingots buried at Fort Knox, points out that the value of gold has never fallen to zero. Why investors are expected to find such a modest claim reassuring I can’t imagine. But something is persuading people to buy gold, driving the price to and past $1,100 per ounce, from about $270 at the beginning of this decade, and around $700 when the financial crisis first hit.
This is not mere panic buying by a herd of small investors trying to benefit from what is called a momentum play. John Paulson (no relation to Hank), the investor who made $20 billion for his hedge fund between 2007 and 2009 by betting on a collapse of the financial and housing markets, is betting on gold in a big way. Paulson & Co already holds $3 billion in gold-related investments (including AngloGold Ashanti and Kinross Gold), and Paulson has just seeded a new gold-related fund with some $250m of his own funds. His modest objective: appreciation at a rate higher than the increase in the price of gold itself.
All of this means that investors do not believe that President Barack Obama will respond to the enormous pressure put on him during his visit to Beijing and take steps to strengthen the dollar. The president and Treasury secretary Timothy Geithner might talk the talk of a strong dollar but they walk the walk of a declining one. A weak dollar should lift exports and cut imports, which in White House terms means jobs for American workers. And it is jobs that the president asks his aides about first thing every morning. With reason.
Should the unemployment rate remain in double digits when elections roll round a year from now, Republicans would gain congressional seats by making the plausible claim that the Democrats’ deficit spending served only to create a debt burden that will weigh down the living standards of our children and grandchildren.
“When the people find they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.” – Fall Of The Republic – Buy the DVD here
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