The Jerusalem Post 
Nov 13, 2012
BALTIMORE – David Gergen, senior political analyst for CNN, has said that the chances for conflict with Iran erupting in the next two to 24 months are greater than 50 percent, and, according to some estimates, as high as 90%.
Speaking before a packed audience of 3,000 that had gathered for the annual General Assembly of The Jewish Federations of North America, Gergen was remarkably candid in his discussion of Israel-America relations now that the US presidential elections are over.
President Barack Obama will be focused during his second term on domestic issues, he predicted, but would nevertheless not be able to avoid the Middle East even if he wanted to. There is simply too much unresolved and too much at stake, he said.
And the central conundrum he will have to deal with is Iran. “In my 30 years in and out of politics,” he reflected, “this is the toughest problem I have ever seen.”