The State Column ^[1]
February 5, 2012

Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul may be the Republican Party’s only hope in the Granite State. According ^[2] to a WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll off likely 2012 general election voters, Mr. Paul stacks up better against President Barack Obama in New Hampshire than former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Mr. Obama leads Mr. Paul by 8 percentage points in the Granite State (42-50). However, the former Illinois senator leads Mr. Romney by 10 percentage points (40-50). Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who polls in second on the national stage, fares the worst against Mr. Obama in New Hampshire (35-60). Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who won the Iowa Caucuses on January 3rd, also polls poorly against Mr. Obama (35-56).

Mr. Paul is a very popular figure in the Granite State. In fact, the Texas congressman’s popularity and organization in New Hampshire propelled him into a second place finish in the New Hampshire Republican primary on January 10th.

The latest WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll is disappointing news for Mr. Romney, who won the New Hampshire Republican primary. Although Mr. Romney had led Mr. Obama in the past year, the president is now favored in the latest poll of likely 2012 general election voters.

Mr. Paul, on the other hand, polls well against Mr. Obama because of his popularity among Independents (45-37).

The bad news for all the Republican presidential candidates is that Mr. Obama’s job approval ratings are on the rise in New Hampshire. Mr. Obama’s job approval ratings are now at their highest level since July 2010. Mr. Obama’s favorability ratings are also on the rise.

The University of New Hampshire surveyed 527 New Hampshire adults between January 25th and February 2nd. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. The University of New Hampshire also interviewed a subsample of 495 likely general election voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.