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RealClear Politics Skews Ron Paul’s Poll Numbers

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Paul Mulshine
The Star Ledger
October 5, 2011

I got copied on this e-mail that Joe Sansone sent to RealClear politics:

Ron Paul is at 11% in this poll with Palin and Christie out of it. You are using everybody else’s numbers without Palin and Christie, except Paul. You are using 9% for him which is his number with Palin and Christie. This does not appear to be the first time this has happened on your site where Paul’s numbers have been shown as less than they are because you have used polls with non candidates for publishing his numbers but published other candidates numbers without using the non candidates included. I have sent this information to the Drudgereport and blind copied other news organizations in hopes that someone brings attention to it.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

Here is the actual poll. For now on I will send this stuff to the DrudgeReport when it appears falsely on your site. If this is just a repetitive error on your part, which I am sure it is,  I do hope that the potential exposure from other news sources will help you guys to be more accurate in the future.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_100211.html

I checked the numbers and it looks like Joe is right. The Romney number in the field containing non-candidates is 21, not 25. That 25 number comes from the same poll that has Ron Paul at 11.

Yet RealClear quotes the high number for Romney and the low number for Paul.

I imagine this was simply a mistake, but such mistakes make it difficult to assess the field. Even if you assume Paul won’t win, as long as he’s in double digits he will have a major role in the race.

Those double digits have to come out of someone’s else’s totals. Whose? Such questions decide elections. And RealClear is not real clear on this one.

  • A d v e r t i s e m e n t

UPDATE: RealClear responds, and Joe concedes the point:

Joe,

We use “registered voter” #s as opposed to “general population” numbers when they are avaliable. We entered the RV #s (w/o Christie and Palin) this morning when the poll was released. They are correct.

Thanks,

John

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_100211.html

21/23/24. (IF WOULD VOTE FOR CHRISTIE OR PALIN) If neither (Christie) nor (Palin) run, for whom would you vote? Which candidate would you lean toward?

NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE

————— Without Christie/Palin —————–

Among gen pop                 Among RVs

10/2/11   9/1/11   7/17/11    10/2/11   9/1/11   7/17/11

Mitt Romney                  25        25       30         25        25       30

Herman Cain                  16         4        7         17         5        7

Rick Perry                   16        29        8         17        30        8

Ron Paul                     11        10       11          9        10       10

Newt Gingrich                 7         6        6          9         5        6

Michele Bachmann              7         8       16          7         9       17

Rick Santorum                 2         3        3          2         3        3

Jon Huntsman                  1         1        3          1         1        3

Tim Pawlenty                 NA        NA        3         NA        NA        3

Other (vol.)                  2         2        1          2         2        1

No one/None of them (vol.)    5         5        2          4         4        2

Would not vote (vol.)         1         2        1          1         1        *

No opinion                    7         5        8          7         5        9

 

This article was posted: Wednesday, October 5, 2011 at 7:27 am





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