January 28, 2012
In a dramatic head-to-head contest that will win huge attention throughout the political world, I now believe that Ron Paul will defeat Mitt Romney in the Virginia primary. The implications could be enormous. This result would dramatize the fact that a majority of Republican primary voters favor a candidate more conservative than Mitt Romney. This prospect could also inspire the mother of all money bombs for the Ron Paul campaign.
If I were the campaign manager for the Gingrich and Santorum campaigns, I would be suggesting that all conservatives vote for Ron Paul in Virginia. Ditto the conservative movement leaders from all conservative points of view and throughout the conservative media.
So far, the pundit debate has largely missed the point that Mitt Romney has hovered between 26 percent and 38 percent in various state votes and polls. It is ridiculous for anyone to suggest “this race is over” or “this race will soon be over” (as many pundits wrongly have) because, obviously, the nominee will need 50 percent-plus-one of all delegates. I emphasize delegates.
What is certainly unique about Virginia, so far, is the prospect of a straight Ron Paul versus Mitt Romney contest, with no other candidates. If this does not change, the Virginia vote will be a pure play of Romney versus Paul, and also a contest purely of Romney versus the conservative movement, which I would expect to unify behind Paul for the Virginia vote.
This article was posted: Saturday, January 28, 2012 at 4:19 am