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Roubini: India May Overtake China within a Year
Posted By admin On September 5, 2010 @ 3:47 am In Money Watch | Comments Disabled
Washington’s Blog 
Sunday, September 5, 2010
Nouriel Roubini made an interesting point  about India and China this week:
Roubini warned that world growth leader China was too dependent on exports to the struggling West and predicted that within a year its economic growth will be overtaken by India, a huge nation much more reliant on its domestic market for development.
India and China are the two most populous nations on Earth.
The 2009 World Population Datasheet  – published by the Population Reference Bureau – states that India will have more people than China within a couple of decades.
India has a very young age demographic, as shown by the following age pyramids:
India Population Pyramid for 1995
Age and sex distribution for the year 1995:
India Population Pyramid for 2000
Age and sex distribution for the year 2000:
India Population Pyramid for 2003
Age and sex distribution for the year 2003:
India Population Pyramid for 2005
Age and sex distribution for the year 2005:
India Population Pyramid for 2010
Age and sex distribution for the year 2010:
India Population Pyramid for 2020
Predicted age and sex distribution for the year 2020:
India Population Pyramid for 2050
Predicted age and sex distribution for the year 2050:
Moreover, as the following chart  shows, India will have a very low percentage of elderly who need to be taken care of by the young:
Chart 2: Old Age Dependency Ratios for Selected Countries
So India will have even less of a drag on its economy from its elderly population than China, let alone an rapidly-aging countries like Germany or Japan.
Note: This is not to say that India will surpass China as the world’s second biggest economy any time soon. Roubini is talking about the rate of growth, not GDP.
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URLs in this post:
 Washington’s Blog: http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/
 point: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38994476/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/
 2009 World Population Datasheet: http://www.prb.org/pdf09/09wpds_eng.pdf
 chart: http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/guest-post-a-country-for-old-men-and-a-bit-of-samba.html
 Image: http://www.creditwritedowns.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/clip_image0025.gif
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