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Roubini: India May Overtake China within a Year

Posted By admin On September 5, 2010 @ 3:47 am In Money Watch | Comments Disabled

Washington’s Blog [1]
Sunday, September 5, 2010

Nouriel Roubini made an interesting point [2] about India and China this week:

Roubini warned that world growth leader China was too dependent on exports to the struggling West and predicted that within a year its economic growth will be overtaken by India, a huge nation much more reliant on its domestic market for development.

India and China are the two most populous nations on Earth.

The 2009 World Population Datasheet [3] – published by the Population Reference Bureau – states that India will have more people than China within a couple of decades.

India has a very young age demographic, as shown by the following age pyramids:

India Population Pyramid for 1995

Age and sex distribution for the year 1995:

Roubini: India May Overtake China within a Year in 1995

India Population Pyramid for 2000

Age and sex distribution for the year 2000:

Roubini: India May Overtake China within a Year in 2000

India Population Pyramid for 2003

Age and sex distribution for the year 2003:

Roubini: India May Overtake China within a Year in 2003

India Population Pyramid for 2005

Age and sex distribution for the year 2005:

Roubini: India May Overtake China within a Year in 2005

India Population Pyramid for 2010

Age and sex distribution for the year 2010:

Roubini: India May Overtake China within a Year in 2010

India Population Pyramid for 2020

Predicted age and sex distribution for the year 2020:

Roubini: India May Overtake China within a Year in 2020

India Population Pyramid for 2050

Predicted age and sex distribution for the year 2050:

Roubini: India May Overtake China within a Year in 2050

If India’s demand mainly comes from its domestic market – rather than, say, American consumers who are now trying to watch their budget – there is tremendous potential for growth.

Moreover, as the following chart [4] shows, India will have a very low percentage of elderly who need to be taken care of by the young:

Chart 2: Old Age Dependency Ratios for Selected Countries

Roubini: India May Overtake China within a Year clip image0025 thumb [5]

So India will have even less of a drag on its economy from its elderly population than China, let alone an rapidly-aging countries like Germany or Japan.

Note: This is not to say that India will surpass China as the world’s second biggest economy any time soon. Roubini is talking about the rate of growth, not GDP.


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URL to article: http://www.prisonplanet.com/roubini-india-may-overtake-china-within-a-year.html

URLs in this post:

[1] Washington’s Blog: http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/

[2] point: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38994476/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/

[3] 2009 World Population Datasheet: http://www.prb.org/pdf09/09wpds_eng.pdf

[4] chart: http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/guest-post-a-country-for-old-men-and-a-bit-of-samba.html

[5] Image: http://www.creditwritedowns.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/clip_image0025.gif

[6] Roubini: My ‘Perfect Storm’ Scenario Is Unfolding Now: http://www.prisonplanet.com/roubini-my-perfect-storm-scenario-is-unfolding-now.html

[7] Roubini Sees 60% Chance Of A Recession In 2012, China And Brazil Also At Risk: http://www.prisonplanet.com/roubini-sees-60-chance-of-a-recession-in-2012-china-and-brazil-also-at-risk.html

[8] China could overtake US economy by 2030: World Bank: http://www.prisonplanet.com/china-could-overtake-us-economy-by-2030-world-bank.html

[9] China may not overtake America this century after all: http://www.prisonplanet.com/china-may-not-overtake-america-this-century-after-all.html

[10] China consumers to overtake U.S. in a decade: Credit Suisse: http://www.prisonplanet.com/china-consumers-to-overtake-u-s-in-a-decade-credit-suisse.html

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