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Roubini Sees Worst Recession in 40 Years, Rally’s End

Posted By admin On October 14, 2008 @ 11:23 am In Featured Stories | Comments Disabled

Eric Martin and Rhonda Schaffler
BLOOMBERG [1]
Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) — Nouriel Roubini, the professor who predicted the financial crisis in 2006, said the U.S. will suffer its worst recession in 40 years, causing the rally in the stock market to “sputter.”

“There are significant downside risks still to the market and the economy,” Roubini, 50, a New York University professor of economics, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “We’re going to be surprised by the severity of the recession and the severity of the financial losses.”

The economist said the recession will last 18 to 24 months, driving unemployment to 9 percent, and already depressed home prices will fall another 15 percent. The U.S. government will need to double its purchase of bank stakes and force lenders to eliminate dividends to save them from bankruptcy, Roubini added. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said today he plans to use $250 billion of taxpayer funds to purchase equity in thousands of financial firms to halt a credit freeze that threatened to drive companies into bankruptcy and eliminate jobs.

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“This will be the first round of recapitalization of the banks,” Roubini said. “The government has to decide to intervene much more directly in the provision of credit and the management of these companies.”

U.S. stocks staged the biggest rally in seven decades yesterday on the government plan to buy stakes in banks and a Federal Reserve-led push to flood the global financial system with dollars. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 12 percent. It gained as much as 4.1 percent and fell as much as 1.1 percent today.

`Really Tanking’

“The stock market is going to stop rallying soon enough when they see the economy is really tanking right now,” Roubini added.

The U.S. unemployment rate stood at a five-year high of 6.1 percent last month. Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 16 percent in July from a year earlier, the most since records began in 2001, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home- price index. Bank seizures may push home prices down further, scaring away buyers in coming months, after U.S. foreclosures rose at the fastest rate in almost three decades in the second quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

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URLs in this post:

[1] BLOOMBERG: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0AZ3ECSkvwc&refer=home

[2] Roubini Sees 60% Chance Of A Recession In 2012, China And Brazil Also At Risk: http://www.prisonplanet.com/roubini-sees-60-chance-of-a-recession-in-2012-china-and-brazil-also-at-risk.html

[3] Recession Will Last At Least Two Years: Roubini: http://www.prisonplanet.com/recession-will-last-at-least-two-years-roubini.html

[4] ROUBINI: The Recession Is Guaranteed, The Only Question Now Is How Bad It Will Be: http://www.prisonplanet.com/roubini-the-recession-is-guaranteed-the-only-question-now-is-how-bad-it-will-be.html

[5] Europe Economy Falls Into First Recession in 15 Years: http://www.prisonplanet.com/europe-economy-falls-into-first-recession-in-15-years.html

[6] Double-Dip Recession Still in the Picture: Roubini: http://www.prisonplanet.com/double-dip-recession-still-in-the-picture-roubini.html

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