Russia strikes a blow at its fears of Nato encirclement

Karen DeYoung
London Times
Sunday, Aug 10, 2008

TENSIONS over South Ossetia and Abkhazia – two tiny Russian-backed separatist regions in Georgia that have enjoyed de facto independence since soon after the break-up of the Soviet Union – have been rising for months. Western intelligence experts had long been warning that war was likely.

Superficially, the sequence of events is a simple escalation.

Since sweeping to power four years ago on the back of a peaceful popular uprising welcomed by the West, Mikhail Saakashvili, 40, a US-educated lawyer, has pledged to bring the two enclaves back under Georgia’s control.

In April Vladimir Putin, then Russian president, recognised South Ossetia and Abkhazia as legal entities, drawing Georgian accusations that Moscow was trying to annex the enclaves. In July four Russian military jets violated Georgian airspace, triggering Georgian protests and a threat to shoot down the next Russian warplane.

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Last week, each side accused the other of armed provocation in South Ossetia. On Friday Saakashvili ordered an offensive after receiving reports – he said – that the Russian military had neared the border. As Russians routed the Georgians in South Ossetia, Abkhazian rebels said they had begun to drive out the Georgians from a key position in the Black Sea enclave.

There is much more at stake in the fighting than the future of two small breakaway republics, however. A greater conflict is under way.

• A d v e r t i s e m e n t

One key is the recognition earlier this year by Nato and European Union countries of Kosovan independence from Serbia. Russia opposed this; Serbia has long been its client state. However, it tried to turn the defeat to its advantage by pushing the argument that, if Kosovans could be independent, so too could the Abkhazians and Ossetians.

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