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Scientists, Data Challenge New Antarctic ‘Warming’ Study
Marc_Morano
EPW.Senate.Gov
Friday, Jan 23, 2009
‘It is hard to make data where none exist’
Comprehensive Data Round Up Debunks New Antarctic ‘Estimate of Temperature Trends’
Washington, DC: A new study on Antarctic temperatures – which is contrary to the findings of multiple previous studies – claims “that since 1957, the annual temperature for the entire continent of Antarctica has warmed by about 1 degree Fahrenheit, but still is 50 degrees below zero.”
Despite the fact that the study was immediately viewed with major skepticism by scientists who are not skeptical of anthropogenic global warming claims, many in the media pounced on the study as a chance to attack those skeptical of man-made climate doom. According to the release of the study, “The researchers devised a statistical technique that uses data from satellites and from Antarctic weather stations to make a new estimate of temperature trends. […] The scientists found temperature measurements from weather stations corresponded closely with satellite data for overlapping time periods. That allowed them to use the satellite data as a guide to deduce temperatures in areas of the continent without weather stations.” (emphasis added)
Few media outlets noted that in 2007 Antarctic “sea ice coverage has grown to record levels since satellite monitoring began in the 1979, according to peer-reviewed studies and scientists who study the area.” [See also other factors impacting Antarctica: “Volcano, Not Global Warming Effects, May be Melting an Antarctic Glacier & The Antarctic deep sea gets COLDER – April 21, 2008 & A January 12, 2008, peer-reviewed paper in AGU (American Geophysical Union) found “A doubling in snow accumulation in the western Antarctic Peninsula since 1850.” Map of Volcanoes - See comprehensive data round up below]
The new Antarctic study was published in Thursday’s issue of the journal Nature and the lead author of the study was Eric Steig, a University of Washington professor of Earth and Space Sciences. Other co-authors include: David Schneider of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, a former student of Steig’s; Scott Rutherford of Roger Williams University in Bristol, RI; and Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University.
(ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW)
UN IPCC lead author, Dr. Kevin Trenberth, who is not in any way a climate change skeptic, said of the study, “I remain somewhat skeptical… It is hard to make data where none exist.” Echoing Trenberth’s analysis were several other scientists.
Climatologist Dr. John Christy of the University of Alabama in Huntsville questioned the study. “One must be very cautious with such results because they have no real way to be validated,” Christy told the AP. “In other words, we will never know what the temperature was over the very large missing areas that this technique attempts to fill in so that it can be tested back through time,” Christy added.
Former Colorado State Climatologist Dr. Roger Pielke, Sr., senior scientist at the University of Colorado in Boulder said the authors of the Antarctic study “overstated” their results. “In terms of the significance of their paper, it overstates what they have obtained from their analysis,” Pielke told the AP. “In the abstract they write, for example, ‘West Antarctic warming exceeds 0.1C per decade over the past 50 years.’ However, even a cursory view of Figure 2 shows that since the late 1990s, the region has been cooling in their analysis in this region. The paper would be more balanced if they presented this result, even if they cannot explain why,” Pielke wrote. Pielke also questioned how the authors “reconcile the conclusions in their paper with the cooler than average long term sea surface temperature anomalies off of the coast of Antarctica.” Pielke added, “These cool anomalies have been there for at least several years. This cool region is also undoubtedly related to the above average Antarctic sea ice areal coverage that has been monitored over recent years.”
A critical analysis of the paper from December 21, 2008, accused the authors of the Antarctic study of making questionable data “adjustments.” (See: Scientist adjusts data — presto, Antarctic cooling disappears – December 21, 2008) The analysis concluded, “Looks like [study author] Steig ‘got rid of’ Antarctic cooling the same way [Michael] Mann got rid of medieval warming. Why not just look at the station data instead of ‘adjusting’ it (graph above)? It shows a 50-year cooling trend,” the analysis concluded.
Alarmists Play Both Sides
The BBC’s Richard Black filed a report on the new study that included this claim: “’It’s hard to think of any situation where increased greenhouse gases would not lead to warming in Antarctica,’ said Drew Shindell from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.”
Sadly, Black of the BBC does not report that the promoters of man-made global warming fears had already concocted explanations for the failure of Antarctica to warm as models predicted. [See: Antarctic temperatures disagree with climate model predictions – February 15, 2007 ]
The warming partisans at RealClimate.org have claimed that a cooling Antarctica is just what the models predict! “A cold Antarctica is just what calculations predict,” stated a February 12, 2008, post on Real Climate titled “Antarctica is Cold? Yeah, We Knew That.” The website claimed “Despite the recent announcement that the discharge from some Antarctic glaciers is accelerating, we often hear people remarking that parts of Antarctica are getting colder, and indeed the ice pack in the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has actually been getting bigger. Doesn’t this contradict the calculations that greenhouse gases are warming the globe? Not at all, because a cold Antarctica is just what calculations predict… and have predicted for the past quarter century.”
So which is it? Models predict Antarctic cooling or do they predict warming? If Antarctica is now allegedly warming, why didn’t the models predict that? The spin by Michael Mann of RealClimate.org and the media on this study is stunning.
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13 Responses to “Scientists, Data Challenge New Antarctic ‘Warming’ Study”
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January 23rd, 2009 at 5:30 am
Boy that Al Gore ,,sure beats the pants off of Warren Buffet.
Gore makes one ScFi movie and along with a 1′ degree change in temperature. And howdy if off to the bank ,with a Nobel Prize to boot.
Al Gore personal wealth jumps from a few million dollars to now it estimated well over a Hundred Million Dollars.
I hear even Bill Clinton looking to jump on the “Climate Change Money Machine”
Yeah boy, Climate Change ,we call stuff, the seasons down here in Texas.
January 23rd, 2009 at 7:56 am
So why is alex posting front page stories about Lovelock who BELIEVES IN GLOBAL WARMING? Make up your mind….
The Prophet of Climate Change: James Lovelock
At the age of eighty-eight, after four children and a long and respected career as one of the twentieth century’s most influential scientists, James Lovelock has come to an unsettling conclusion: The human race is doomed.
In Lovelock’s view, the scale of the catastrophe that awaits us will soon become obvious. By 2020, droughts and other extreme weather will be commonplace. By 2040, the Sahara will be moving into Europe, and Berlin will be as hot as Baghdad. Atlanta will end up a kudzu jungle. Phoenix will become uninhabitable, as will parts of Beijing (desert), Miami (rising seas) and London (floods). Food shortages will drive millions of people north, raising political tensions.
By 2100, Lovelock believes, the Earth’s population will be culled from today’s 6.6 billion to as few as 500 million, with most of the survivors living in the far latitudes — Canada, Iceland, Scandinavia, the Arctic Basin.
By the end of the century, according to Lovelock, global warming will cause temperate zones like North America and Europe to heat up by fourteen degrees Fahrenheit, nearly double the likeliest predictions of the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations-sanctioned body that includes the world’s top scientists.
Gary Reply:
January 24th, 2009 at 10:07 am
er, this is an article about the global warming agenda. What’s up with the Christian bashing? If you want keep up with the global warming myth, try wattsupwiththat.com. There’s a lot of informed people there who’ve been talking about climate for some time now. A lot of science types, too, like meterologists, geologists, climatologists, etc.
Why bash Christians? I’m a Chrisitan. Why bash me? I never hurt no one. I’ve spent thousands of hours helping folks out. Thousands. Donating money, food, clothing, work, prayers, time, etc. I’ve worked soup kitchens, food drives, halfway houses, rehabs. I’ve worked inside of jails, prisons, youth boot camps, you name it. And I ain’t even in the ministry! All volunteer. See? Christians do good things. Christians help people.
Keep in mind that not everyone saying, “Lord, Lord,” are Christians. They may talk out prayers, but they are not praying to God Almighty. They have Christ in their mouths and not in their hearts. I know. It’s bad. But it’s true. Get to know some of the real followers of the real Messiah. The true remnant. We ain’t so bad. Don’t fear us. Don’t bash us. Associate with us and learn what we’re about. Hear our story first hand and quit relying on web sites to fill you in.
January 23rd, 2009 at 9:10 am
I’m not sure what the ulterior motive behind Global Warming is. I think the goal is to implement a global tax with global control.
Since non-productive government tends to get increasingly out of control the further it is away from the governed, I strongly oppose this.
Ray Reply:
January 23rd, 2009 at 9:28 am
People should not bail out governments.
January 23rd, 2009 at 2:20 pm
http://www.ExposingChristianity.com
The pen is mightier than the sword.
- Everything in Christianity has been stolen from religions predating it by hundreds to thousands of years.
- Judaism, Christianity and Islam are all programs to keep spiritual knowledge away from the populace in order to keep humans enslaved by the global elite.
- Most, but not all, of the Old Testament consists of symbolism, allegories and twisted truths that are to be taken literally by the masses.
- Contrary to what most people have been indoctrinated with, Judaism, Christianity and Islam are relatively new religions. Humanity goes back tens of thousands of years. These three have worked relentlessly to keep us from spiritual knowledge and using this power, of which all of us have.
- The survival and prosperity of this vicious hoax on humanity requires only ONE thing- A LACK OF KNOWLEDGE!
January 23rd, 2009 at 2:56 pm
whatever
January 23rd, 2009 at 4:22 pm
Watch Climate wars part 1-3 and see how stupid this website is in denying global climate change. ALL of your so called facts have been debunked!!!! Global climate change is real. Only two types of people deny climate change…paid idiots spewing propaganda…unpaid idiots spewing propaganda!!!
http://video.google.com/videop…..2119252436
Sexton Hardcastle Reply:
January 24th, 2009 at 1:16 am
Only two types of people treat Global Warming like a religion…those who idiots spewing propaganda…and idiots fooled by propaganda.
Sexton Hardcastle Reply:
January 24th, 2009 at 1:16 am
Erase the who there, damn computer.
January 24th, 2009 at 11:56 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....annel_page
January 24th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
I’m no scientist and I don’t pretend to be, but I can smell bullshit and spin from a mile away. The first clue that something is up is that a couple of years ago, the official term of “global warming” was replaced with “Climate Change”. That’s kind of vague isn’t it? Sounds like officials trying to cover their asses. Unfortunately the truth is disturbingly hard to discover because anyone that studies this subject needs funding and every financial backer has an agenda. Even objective scientists don’t want to anger their bosses or put their career at risk.
Maybe what we really need is a completely unbiased organization that only takes anonymous donations that will fund scientists to guarantee that results will not be swayed to make certain agendas fit the research.
January 25th, 2009 at 10:37 pm
Well of the globe is warming…the northern states must have been left out this year because man it’s one of the coldest winters I can remember in over 25 years here in New York. I know that the north midwestern states are even colder than we are.