State of the Sun for year end 2008: all’s quiet on the solar front – too quiet

Watts Up With That
Sunday, January 4, 2009

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction center updated their plots of solar indices earlier today, on January 3rd. With the exception of a slight increase in the 107 centimeter radio flux, there appears to be even less signs of solar activity. Sunspots are still not following either of the two predictive curves, and it appears that the solar dynamo continues to slumber, perhaps even winding down further. Of particular note, the last graph below (click the read more link to see it) showing the Average Planetary Index (Ap) is troubling. I thought there would be an uptick by now,  due to expectations of some sign of cycle 24 starting up, but instead it continues to drop.

Meanwhile, the Oulu Neutron Monitor shows a significant up trend, reaching levels not seen in over 30 years. According to an email I received from Dr. David Archibald, GCR flux has indeed increased:

Oulu Neutron Monitor Data, plotted by David Archibald with prediction point added. Data source: University of Oulu, Finland

Svensmark is watching this closely I’m sure.

(ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW)

Looking at the SWPC graph below, it appears that we are in uncharted territory now, since the both the high and low cycle 24 predictions (in red) appear to be falsified for the current time frame. No new cycle 24 predictions have been issued by any solar group (that I am aware of ) in the last couple of months. The last time NASA made a change was in October 08. The question now seems to be, are we seeing the beginning of a cycle skip, or a grand minima? Or is this just an extraordinary delay for cycle 24 ?

Solar cycle 24: where are you?

 

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5 Responses to “State of the Sun for year end 2008: all’s quiet on the solar front – too quiet”

1. submissive_sheep Says:
   January 5th, 2009 at 12:43 am

   The sun is billions of years old, a graph showing a 40 year period just doesnt do it…

2. .DJ.O.R.B. Says:
   January 5th, 2009 at 4:10 am

   INFORMATION IS THE BEST WEAPON TO USE AGAINST THESE NEO-SCUM BASTARDS !!

   IT’S TIME FOR ALL INFOWARRIORS TO STEP UP, STEP FORWARD, AND POLLUTE THE
   WORLD WITH OUR COLLECTIVE KNOWLEDGE OF CONSCIOUSNESS. 1 LOVE !!!!!!!!!!!

   TIME TO GIVE POWER BACK 2 THE PEOPLE, GIVEN BY THE PEOPLE, & GIVEN 4 THE PEOPLE

   AND SO BEGINS THE REVOLUTION …………………………………………….

   ………”RON PAUL”……………………….”ALEX JONES”………………………….”DAVID ICKE”……….
   …..FOR PRESIDENT…………….FOR VICE-PRESIDENT………….FOR SECRETARY-OF-STATE……..

3. Rob in CT Says:
   January 5th, 2009 at 7:14 am

   So now what? Send extra hydrogen to the sun?

4. Terry Says:
   January 5th, 2009 at 12:58 pm

   Mr. Sun is dying.

5. transPhat Says:
   January 5th, 2009 at 5:25 pm

   ….insane monkeys destroying the thin layer of life on a little rock spinning around a burning gas ball at the edge of galaxy one amongst billions that we know of don’t know nothing about no nothing whether they pretend to or not…. just keep killing, angry monkeys, and all will be well.