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Study: model in good agreement with satellite temperature data – suggest cooling

Posted By admin On October 21, 2009 @ 3:43 am In Sci Tech | Comments Disabled

Watts Up With That? [1]
Wednesday, Oct 21st, 2009

TREND ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DATA

Craig Loehle
National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, Inc.
Reprint available from NCASI [2] (PDF)

Abstract

Global satellite data is analyzed for temperature trends for the period January 1979 through June 2009.  Beginning and ending segments show a cooling trend, while the middle segment evinces a warming trend.  The past 12 to 13 years show cooling using both satellite  data sets, with lower confidence limits that do not exclude a negative trend until 16 to 22 years.  It is shown that several published studies have predicted cooling in this time frame.  One of these models is extrapolated from its 2000 calibration end date and shows a good match to the satellite data, with a projection of continued cooling for several more decades.

Figure 6.     Linear plus period model from Klyashtorin and Lyubushin (2003) overlaid on satellite data after intercept shift.  Dotted line is model extrapolation post-2000 calibration period end. a) UAH.  b) RSS.

Study: model in good agreement with satellite temperature data – suggest cooling  [3] Figure 6a – UAH data plus model 

 

Study: model in good agreement with satellite temperature data – suggest cooling  [4] Figure 6b – RSS data plus model 

Study: model in good agreement with satellite temperature data – suggest cooling  071009banner3 [5]

CONCLUSIONS
Analysis of the satellite data shows a statistically significant cooling trend for the past 12 to 13 years, with it not being possible to reject a flat trend (0 slope) for between 16 and 23 years. This is a length of time at which disagreement with climate models can no longer be attributed to simple LTP. On the other hand, studies cited herein have documented a 50–70 year cycle of climate oscillations overlaid on a simple linear warming trend since the mid-1800s and have used this model to forecast cooling beginning between 2001 and 2010, a prediction that seems to be upheld by the satellite and ocean heat content data. Other studies made this same prediction of transition to cooling based on solar activity indices or from ocean circulation regime changes. In contrast, the climate models predict the recent flat to cooling trend only as a rare stochastic event. The linear warming trend in these models that is obtained by subtracting the 60–70 yr cycle, while unexplained at present, is clearly inconsistent with climate model predictions because it begins too soon (before greenhouse gases were elevated) and does not accelerate as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate. This model and the empirical evidence for recent cooling thus provide a challenge to
climate model accuracy.


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URLs in this post:

[1] Watts Up With That?: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/20/study-model-in-good-agreement-with-satellite-temperature-data-suggest-cooling/

[2] NCASI: http://www.ncasi.org/publications/Detail.aspx?id=3230

[3] Image: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/loehle_fig6_uah.png

[4] Image: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/loehle_fig6_rss.png

[5] Image: http://www.efoodsdirect.com/gmoPeople.html?aid=14&adid=12

[6] What Global Warming? 2012 Data Confirms Earth In Cooling Trend: http://www.prisonplanet.com/what-global-warming-2012-data-confirms-earth-in-cooling-trend.html

[7] Climate Theories Crumble as Data and Experts Suggest Global Cooling: http://www.prisonplanet.com/climate-theories-crumble-as-data-and-experts-suggest-global-cooling.html

[8] A study: The temperature rise has caused the CO2 Increase, not the other way around: http://www.prisonplanet.com/a-study-the-temperature-rise-has-caused-the-co2-increase-not-the-other-way-around.html

[9] “The World’s Source for Global Temperature Record Admits It’s Lost or Destroyed All the Original Data That Would Allow a Third Party to” Model Climate: http://www.prisonplanet.com/the-worlds-source-for-global-temperature-record-admits-its-lost-or-destroyed-all-the-original-data-that-would-allow-a-third-party-to-model-climate.html

[10] Global Cooling is Here! Evidence for Predicting Global Cooling for the Next Three Decades: http://www.prisonplanet.com/global-cooling-is-here-evidence-for-predicting-global-cooling-for-the-next-three-decades.html

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