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The Bond Market Is Expecting a Corporate Default Rate CONSIDERABLY HIGHER than the Great Depression

George Washington’s Blog [1]
Saturday, Nov 22, 2008

Junk bond guru Martin Fridson told [2] Bloomberg on Wednesday:

“Either the [high-yield bond] market is right and expecting a default rate considerably higher than it was in the Great Depression, or we have such profound dislocations and selling pressures going on that it really is creating extraordinary fundamental value.”

In other words, corporate bond yields are in the stratosphere right now. Either investors are overreacting to corporate default risk [3] (thus driving up the yields), or we are in for a very bumpy ride.