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The Oil Price Surge Indicator Says There’s A 100% Chance Of A New Recession

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The Pragmatic Capitalist
Business Insider
Aug 10, 2010

No, that headline is not a typo.  This interesting fact comes to us courtesy of The Global Macro Investor:

“Oil prices are always a precursor to recessions.  We hit the magic 100% YoY rise in November 2009 and went on to hit the third highest YoY% rise in the history of oil markets…

The Oil Price Surge Indicator Says Theres A 100% Chance Of A New Recession chart

“The magic 100% level in the YoY change in oil gives us a 100% chance of a recession in the succeeding twelve months.  This indicator suggests that ISM will fall to 40, or even 35, in the coming months before recovering…”

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The Oil Price Surge Indicator Says Theres A 100% Chance Of A New Recession 150410banner7

This article was posted: Tuesday, August 10, 2010 at 3:50 am





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