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The Sun puts on some fireworks for the 4th of July
Watts Up With That?
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Leif Svalgaard has been saying for sometime now that Solar Cycle 24 seems to be getting underway. Seeing sunspot group 1024 today, I’m tending to agree.
Click for larger image
The magnetic polarity (seen on the SOHO magnetogram) of the spot group combined with the middle latitude indicates it is a cycle 24 spot.
From Spaceweather.com
The most active sunspot of the year so far is emerging in the sun’s southern hemisphere: movie. Sunspot 1024 has at least a dozen individual dark cores and it is crackling with B-class solar flares. This morning, amateur astronomer David Tyler caught one of the flares in action from his backyard solar observatory in England:
The magnetic polarity of sunspot 1024 identifies it as a member of new Solar Cycle 24. Its rapid emergence on July 3rd and 4th continues the recent (few-month) trend of intensifying new-cycle activity. This sunspot is the best offering yet from the young solar cycle.
I agree. This one looks like a “normal” sunspot. The question now is: how long will it last? Many promising cycle 24 sunspots have fizzed just as quickly as they arrived. Cycle 24 has not yet shown any indications of spot stamina.
In other news, the SOHO satellite has developed a problem with its pointing motor for the high gain antenna.
This is a serious concern, and data outages are already happening due to limited pointing ability. There is a backup spacecraft for SOHO in the pipeline, the Solar Dynamics Observatory, set for a November 2009 launch date. It has recently been shipped to Cape Canaveral. Lets hope the didn’t use the US postal service or DHL.
In other solar satellite news…
Goodbye Ulysses (July 3, 2009)
Hi-res TIF image (4.6M)
Upon receipt of the last command from Earth, the transmitter on Ulysses switched off on June 30, 2009, bringing one of the most successful and longest missions in spaceflight and solar study history to an end. After 18.6 years in space and defying several earlier expectations of its demise, the joint ESA/NASA solar orbiter Ulysses achieved ‘end of mission’. The craft is nearly out of hydrazine fuel for its stabilizing thrusters, and there’s not enough money to continue the mission for another year. A final communication pass with a ground station enabled the final command to be issued to switch the satellite’s radio communications into ‘monitor only’ mode. No further contact with Ulysses is planned.
Ulysses is the first spacecraft to survey the environment in space over the poles of the Sun in the four dimensions of space and time. Among many other ground-breaking results, the hugely successful mission showed that the Sun’s magnetic field is carried into the solar system in a more complicated manner than previously believed. Particles expelled by the Sun from low latitudes can climb up to high latitudes and vice versa, even unexpectedly finding their way down to planets. Regions of the Sun not previously considered as possible sources of hazardous particles for astronauts and satellites must now be carefully monitored. “Ulysses has taught us far more than we ever expected about the Sun and the way it interacts with the space surrounding it,” said Richard Marsden, ESA’s Ulysses Project Scientist and Mission Manager.
So farewell, and congratulations on a job exceedingly well done.
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29 Responses to “The Sun puts on some fireworks for the 4th of July”
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July 5th, 2009 at 8:29 am
Crop circles predict solar storms to hit earth on July 7, 2009.
http://www.cropcircleconnector.....ments.html
Here’s what it could do:
“If directed at Earth, a coronal mass ejection is harmless to people, but slams into Earth’s magnetic field, thereby distorting it into the shape of a jellyfish buffeted by a strong current. The most severe CMEs may cause geomagnetic storms capable of disrupting satellites, radio communications or power systems” (see http://www.atlasaerospace.net/......htm?id=50).
“Coronal mass ejections typically disturb Earth’s magnetic field, distorting it into the shape of a jellyfish buffeted by a strong current. This interaction also energizes electrically charged particles, trapped within Earth’s magnetosphere, and so causes bright auroral displays” (see istp.gsfc.nasa.gov).
July 5th, 2009 at 8:30 am
signs in the heavens
Look up.
July 5th, 2009 at 9:18 am
http://www.earthfiles.com/news.....nvironment
Group deciphers crop circles.
July 5th, 2009 at 10:01 am
http://www.earthfiles.com/news.....nvironment
Group deciphers crop circles.
PS: Wanted to add great post!
July 5th, 2009 at 10:50 am
no doubt whatsoever that global warming and cooling are related to the solar activity. To think that the politicos are so stupid as to believe that a non-reactive trace gas can cause a reactive result!
July 5th, 2009 at 11:56 am
Strap on your seat belts kiddies, we’re heading for a ride into shitsville!
How could these guys screw up math & freedom so completely on accident?
July 5th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
So . . . what happens when the cycle hits max? Do ya think temps will rise? Seeing as Global Warming is completely related to solar cycles, won’t we be toast then?
canoeman Reply:
July 5th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
Storky, I see what you’re getting at, but consider the graphs Al Gore used. Go look at them on a longer scale than the tiny portion you got in the video and you’ll see that they’ll have no effect.
storky Reply:
July 6th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
So which is it?
Is solar forcing a major contributor or a minor on?
At what point in the solar cycle does it become the dominant force in global warming?
Is global cooling over?
Chris G. Reply:
July 5th, 2009 at 10:31 pm
What COULD happen is that ET life in the universe could be proven. The implications of that is huge. I think mankind needs a teacher right now.
July 5th, 2009 at 4:20 pm
Crop circles have been disproven years ago as artists and college kids! There is no “deciphering” to be done it’s all bullshit. C.M.E.’s are real and can cause lots of problems…but no one knows when it will happen NO ONE!
July 5th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
KHUFU,
If you feel that way then I suggest you head over to http://www.cropcircleconnector.com and look at this years activity. For you to suggest these are all hoaxes shows me that you haven’t seen many of them. Most of these circles appear overnight or within a couple of hours. There is also footage out there showing one being created by lights in the sky. So before you dismiss them all as hoaxes have a look.
July 5th, 2009 at 9:05 pm
Whoever edited my posts… Thanks.
July 5th, 2009 at 9:06 pm
Me too!
July 5th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html
updated activity every 1 minute (auto)
You can leave your browser window open and minimized to monitor activity.
July 5th, 2009 at 11:05 pm
Severe Space Weather
01.21.2009
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January 21, 2009: Did you know a solar flare can make your toilet stop working?
That’s the surprising conclusion of a NASA-funded study by the National Academy of Sciences entitled Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts. In the 132-page report, experts detailed what might happen to our modern, high-tech society in the event of a “super solar flare” followed by an extreme geomagnetic storm. They found that almost nothing is immune from space weather—not even the water in your bathroom.
Right: Auroras over Blair, Nebraska, during a geomagnetic storm in May 2005. Photo credit: Mike Hollingshead/Spaceweather.com.
The problem begins with the electric power grid. “Electric power is modern society’s cornerstone technology on which virtually all other infrastructures and services depend,” the report notes. Yet it is particularly vulnerable to bad space weather. Ground currents induced during geomagnetic storms can actually melt the copper windings of transformers at the heart of many power distribution systems. Sprawling power lines act like antennas, picking up the currents and spreading the problem over a wide area. The most famous geomagnetic power outage happened during a space storm in March 1989 when six million people in Quebec lost power for 9 hours: image.
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According to the report, power grids may be more vulnerable than ever. The problem is interconnectedness. In recent years, utilities have joined grids together to allow long-distance transmission of low-cost power to areas of sudden demand. On a hot summer day in California, for instance, people in Los Angeles might be running their air conditioners on power routed from Oregon. It makes economic sense—but not necessarily geomagnetic sense. Interconnectedness makes the system susceptible to wide-ranging “cascade failures.”
To estimate the scale of such a failure, report co-author John Kappenmann of the Metatech Corporation looked at the great geomagnetic storm of May 1921, which produced ground currents as much as ten times stronger than the 1989 Quebec storm, and modeled its effect on the modern power grid. He found more than 350 transformers at risk of permanent damage and 130 million people without power. The loss of electricity would ripple across the social infrastructure with “water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, fuel re-supply and so on.”
“The concept of interdependency,” the report notes, “is evident in the unavailability of water due to long-term outage of electric power–and the inability to restart an electric generator without water on site.”
Above: What if the May 1921 superstorm occurred today? A US map of vulnerable transformers with areas of probable system collapse encircled. A state-by-state map of transformer vulnerability is also available: click here. Credit: National Academy of Sciences.
The strongest geomagnetic storm on record is the Carrington Event of August-September 1859, named after British astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare with his unaided eye while he was projecting an image of the sun on a white screen. Geomagnetic activity triggered by the explosion electrified telegraph lines, shocking technicians and setting their telegraph papers on fire; Northern Lights spread as far south as Cuba and Hawaii; auroras over the Rocky Mountains were so bright, the glow woke campers who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning. Best estimates rank the Carrington Event as 50% or more stronger than the superstorm of May 1921.
“A contemporary repetition of the Carrington Event would cause … extensive social and economic disruptions,” the report warns. Power outages would be accompanied by radio blackouts and satellite malfunctions; telecommunications, GPS navigation, banking and finance, and transportation would all be affected. Some problems would correct themselves with the fading of the storm: radio and GPS transmissions could come back online fairly quickly. Other problems would be lasting: a burnt-out multi-ton transformer, for instance, can take weeks or months to repair. The total economic impact in the first year alone could reach $2 trillion, some 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina or, to use a timelier example, a few TARPs.
Above: A web of interdependencies makes the modern economy especially sensitive to solar storms. Source: Dept. of Homeland Security. [Larger image]
What’s the solution? The report ends with a call for infrastructure designed to better withstand geomagnetic disturbances, improved GPS codes and frequencies, and improvements in space weather forecasting. Reliable forecasting is key. If utility and satellite operators know a storm is coming, they can take measures to reduce damage—e.g., disconnecting wires, shielding vulnerable electronics, powering down critical hardware. A few hours without power is better than a few weeks.
NASA has deployed a fleet of spacecraft to study the sun and its eruptions. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), the twin STEREO probes, ACE, Wind and others are on duty 24/7. NASA physicists use data from these missions to understand the underlying physics of flares and geomagnetic storms; personnel at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center use the findings, in turn, to hone their forecasts.
At the moment, no one knows when the next super solar storm will erupt. It could be 100 years away or just 100 days. It’s something to think about the next time you flush.
TO SEE THE PICTURES associated with this article, please visit:
http://science.nasa.gov/headli.....eather.htm
July 5th, 2009 at 11:08 pm
Does anyone here know how long back up systems for nuclear power plants can operate during a long term power outage? Just curious.
July 5th, 2009 at 11:27 pm
Hey folks!
Just wanted to provide a link to a high quality movie that fits with this topic:
http://www.divxmoviezonline.co.....-2009.html (divx high quality)
for those of you with slower internet connections, here is another link:
http://www.fastpasstv.com/knowing-2009
ENJOY!
July 5th, 2009 at 11:29 pm
The movie is KNOWING, with Nicholas Cage.
July 6th, 2009 at 12:21 am
I am neither expert or well read here, that said, my understanding is that it is agreed that if a coronal mass ejection of the severity of an event from the 1860s hit North America it would put the electrical grid out of commission for months. How often have such 1860s events hit? Considering the potential probability of such an event and the destructiveness to modern society a severe coronal mass ejection might be one of the greatest dangers we face. Might want to put some money into early warning and redundant speciality parts
July 6th, 2009 at 1:32 am
That’s why I was wondering how long back up systems for nuclear power plants last. Lose power for long enough, a meltdown occurs.
July 6th, 2009 at 1:35 am
There is little sunspot activity at the moment, but we are still in the window. If a large event happened, the CMEs would still have time to reach earth for the 7/7/09 prediction. But, sunspot 1024 isn’t that big and the activity seems to be waning. Just have to watch and see.
July 6th, 2009 at 2:02 am
@Obama Drama
Funny you mention about KNOWING, that movie is coming out to DVD tomorrow 7/7/09 talk about coincidence
July 6th, 2009 at 2:12 am
I know, that’s why I posted it. lol
July 6th, 2009 at 4:40 am
I know, that’s why I posted it. lol
OH! You’re my new favorite blogger fyi
July 6th, 2009 at 4:54 am
Is there TWO Obama Dramas?
July 6th, 2009 at 4:55 am
Shut up, Chris G.
July 6th, 2009 at 7:17 am
these idiots proclaiming to be scientists are just men like me except im not as fucking stupid as these overpaid idiots
July 8th, 2009 at 11:02 pm
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