May 20, 2011
Now that it has finally been made clear that in order to accommodate the debt ceiling by adding marketable debt, the Treasury has no choice but to literally plunder retirement accounts, we now know that in order to fit in the just announced $110 billion in new bond issuance over the next week, Tim Geithner will have to reduce US retirement funding (the bulk of which, the Social Security Trust Fund already lost $1.1 trillion in the past year) by at least $45 billion. That is the net result of $60 billion in net new cash and $15 billion in bill paydowns which will settle between May 19 and May 31. What remains to be seen is just how much cash the Treasury will bleed as it seeks a parallel track of under-rolling maturing Bills, in order to keep its previously disclosed intentions of issuing just $142 billion between April and June. Keep in mind almost two thirds of this period has passed, which means that somehow the Treasury has to not only stop but in fact reverse its net issuance. We are not sure how this will actually happen.
Net cash in/out flow over the next two weeks:
Next week’s upcoming auctions:
And as a reminder this is what the Treasury’s latest Sources and Uses table looks like:
This article was posted: Friday, May 20, 2011 at 4:01 am