Wednesday, November 30, 2011
It appears that central bank intervention was not the only thing in full force today: The US version of the Chinese Ministry of Truth in economic reporting has now officially joined the fray. Anyone wondering just how much of a joke the US high frequency economic data updates have become should look no further than these three charts showing Wall Street forecasts (consensus and distribution) and actual prints for the ADP Payroll, the Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales. Not one indicator has come below 4 standard deviations above the average forecast, and every single one has printed above the highest forecast. It is now safe to say without any doubt that US data is equal if not more equal in credibility terms with that of China.
Below are the charts showing sellside forecast distribution for ADP, Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales. Nuf said.
ADP: 4+ Std Devs above consensus
Chicago PMI: 4 Std Devs above consensus
and Pending Home Sales: 5 Std Devs above consensus
This article was posted: Wednesday, November 30, 2011 at 9:25 am