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US Economic Data Reporting Now Officially A Farce: Every Economic Data Point Prints 4+ Std Devs Above Consensus

Posted By yihan On November 30, 2011 @ 9:25 am In Money Watch | Comments Disabled

Zero Hedge [1]
Wednesday, November 30, 2011

It appears that central bank intervention was not the only thing in full force today: The US version of the Chinese Ministry of Truth in economic reporting has now officially joined the fray. Anyone wondering just how much of a joke the US high frequency economic data updates have become should look no further than these three charts showing Wall Street forecasts (consensus and distribution) and actual prints for the ADP Payroll, the Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales. Not one indicator has come below 4 standard deviations above the average forecast, and every single one has printed above the highest forecast. It is now safe to say without any doubt that US data is equal if not more equal in credibility terms with that of China.

Below are the charts showing sellside forecast distribution for ADP, Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales. Nuf said.

ADP: 4+ Std Devs above consensus

US Economic Data Reporting Now Officially A Farce: Every Economic Data Point Prints 4+ Std Devs Above Consensus ADP%20std%20devs [2]

Chicago PMI: 4 Std Devs above consensus

US Economic Data Reporting Now Officially A Farce: Every Economic Data Point Prints 4+ Std Devs Above Consensus Chicago%20PMI%20std%20devs [3]

and Pending Home Sales: 5 Std Devs above consensus

US Economic Data Reporting Now Officially A Farce: Every Economic Data Point Prints 4+ Std Devs Above Consensus Pending%20Home%20Sales 0 [4]

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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URLs in this post:

[1] Zero Hedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/us-economic-data-reporting-now-officially-farce-every-economic-data-point-prints-4-std-devs-abo

[2] Image: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/10/ADP%20std%20devs_0.jpg

[3] Image: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/10/Chicago%20PMI%20std%20devs.jpg

[4] Image: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/10/Pending%20Home%20Sales_0.jpg

[5] Q1 GDP Prints At 1.8% Misses Consensus OF 2.0%, Plunges From 3.1% In Q4, Initial Claims Surge: http://www.prisonplanet.com/q1-gdp-prints-at-1-8-misses-consensus-of-2-0-plunges-from-3-1-in-q4-initial-claims-surge.html

[6] China ‘Officially’ Moves From Made-Up Data To Hiding Data: http://www.prisonplanet.com/china-officially-moves-from-made-up-data-to-hiding-data.html

[7] Housing Double Dip Accelerates As Existing Home Sales Plunge -2.2% In May Versus 6.0% Consensus, Down From 8% In April: http://www.prisonplanet.com/housing-double-dip-accelerates-as-existing-home-sales-plunge-2-2-in-may-versus-6-0-consensus-down-from-8-in-april.html

[8] Devastating paper on IPCC consensus: http://www.prisonplanet.com/devastating-paper-on-ipcc-consensus.html

[9] What Do the Pending Home Sale Numbers Mean?: http://www.prisonplanet.com/what-do-the-pending-home-sale-numbers-mean.html

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