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Case-Shiller Still Predicts Massive 45% Fall from Today’s Values

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Seekeing Alpha
Friday, Nov 27th, 2009
 
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The 10 major cities in the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index have risen 5% from their April low, but the index is still predicting a massive 45% fall from today’s values.
 
Tuesday’s new number from the index showed a gain of just under .5% for the month of September, but the index remains 30% below the high in June 2006. Based upon a trend generated from the actual prices of 1987 to 1997, and generated forward in a linear projection, the index will fall a total of 62% before it reaches the trend norm.
 
A more comprehensive analysis of the 10-city index based upon a 120 years of data shows current values off 36% and a comparatively modest 20% fall ahead.
 
Review four charts and key data based upon major real estate price indexes at “Property Price Index”.
 

This article was posted: Friday, November 27, 2009 at 4:53 am





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