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CREDIT SUISSE: It’ll Take Missile Strikes On Syria During The FOMC Meeting For The Fed To Delay The Taper

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Sam Ro
Business Insider
September 9, 2013

Even considering Friday’s weak August jobs report, economists across Wall Street expect the Federal Reserve to announce later this month that it is tapering its monthly purchases of $45 billion worth of Treasury bonds and $40 billion worth of mortgage bonds.

But this consensus is based largely on economic analysis.

Of course, there is always the possibility that some “black swan” event or an escalation of geopolitical tension causes uncertainty to spike ultimately affecting economic forecasts.

One such risk: Syria.

From Credit Suisse’s latest “Global Economics Weekly Calendar” (emphasis added):

“In our view, absent missile strikes on Syria the very days the FOMC meets, there is little to keep the Fed from modestly reducing its particularly accommodative $85bn/month easing program. We still look for a $20bn taper, evenly distributed between MBS and Treasuries. This would reduce monthly MBS purchases to $30bn and Treasury purchases to $35bn. Our second favorite option is a $15bn taper ($5bn MBS, $10bn Treasuries), bringing monthly purchases of each to $35bn.”

The Federal Reserve’s next two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting ends on September 18.

This article was posted: Monday, September 9, 2013 at 4:37 am

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