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Data Suggests Ice Age Within 5 Decades

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Watts Up With That?
Wednesday, Jan 7, 2008

One of the best things about WUWT is the number of eyes and minds at work, multiplying the efforts. This is interesting. Now that the 1998 El Nino is disappearing off the 10 year scale, things are looking a bit different

From “crosspatch” in comments:

NCDC now has December 2008 in the database. Annual North American temperature since 1998 (11 years of data) is falling over the period at a rate of 0.78(F)/decade or 7.8(F)per century. At this rate we will be in an ice age within 5 decades. If you can get the graphic, the heavy black like is the average over the century 1901 to 2000.

Here is the graphic from their automated graphics generator linked to their database:


Source: National Climatic Data Center

(Article continues below)

  • A d v e r t i s e m e n t

While the link he provided is only a result, I’m sure he’ll share the method in comments to this post.

UPDATE: He has indeed, see below. Try your own hand at it. The trend will likely flatten a bit with the removal of 1998 from the 10 year set. Of course you could pick any number of scales/periods and get different results. The point being made here is that the last 10 years hasn’t met with some model expectations.

Also I have corrected in the text the reference to Centigrade when it was actually Fahrenheit, note the (F). NCDC being an arm of the US government operates on the English unit system whereas most other organizations use metric, and thus Centigrade. I’ve made the mistake myself, so has NASA, who famously lost a Mars probe when they botched orbit entry calculations by use of Metric and English units on different science teams.


To generate the graphic I made:

First navigate here

Leave the “Data Type” field at “Mean Temperature”
Select “Annual” from the “Period” field pull down
Select “1998″ as “First Year To Display”

and click the blue “Submit” oval at the below the data entry form.

This article was posted: Wednesday, January 7, 2009 at 5:19 am

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