Tuesday, Nov 4, 2008
What people do not understand is that there is no proof of “Man-Made” Global Warming without using irrelevant computer models. Yes computer models have a place in engineering but are utterly useless at fortune telling, I mean “climate prediction”. With engineering you can build and test in the real world to confirm the computer model’s accuracy. You can do no such thing with the planet Earth and it’s climate. You cannot build a planet and it’s atmosphere to “test” your computer climate model.
I am a computer analyst and can program a computer model to do whatever I want. If you program a computer model so that X amount of CO2 increase “forces” X amount of temperature increase then it will happen, this does not make this true in the real world.
“…all of our models have errors which mean that they will inevitably fail to track reality within a few days irrespective of how well they are initialised.” – James Annan, William Connolley, RealClimate.org
GIGO: Garbage in = Garbage out
Computers need exact information and the exact procedures to process that information to get accurate answers, without that you get useless results, period. There is no way around this. Computers cannot fill in the blanks for you like nature does when you do an experiment in the real world. With computers everything must be programmed into them from the beginning and everything that is programmed into them must be 100% understood and 100% accurate. Even the most advanced and expensive computer climate models include various approximations known as ‘parameterizations’. These “guesses” include:
– Cloud Cover
– Transfer of Solar Radiation in the Atmosphere
Fundamental Computer Science – if a Computer Model includes merely one approximation for what latter dependent calculations or data are derived from then the output of the model is useless. This is Computer Science 101.
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Computing incomplete, biased or flat out wrong data (guesses and assumptions) based on poorly understood climate physics in a “model” will give you useless output. But since these models have been “tuned” (guesstimated or deliberately altered to get the results they want) they get results that “seem” likely or even convincing to the average computer illiterate, yet they are absolutely meaningless for prediction. What the modelers do is they keep playing with the numbers until they think they guess right, a useless exercise. Technically they are mathematically adjusting various climate related equations based on theoretical assumptions.
Alarmist scientists presenting their “predictions” as fancy graphs or nicely colored renderings does nothing for the accuracy of their predictions. They like to use colors such as yellow, orange and red to have an emotional effect for worthless computer generated results.
Question: Would you use a mathematically broken calculator?
Nothing is emotional about computers they are pure logical machines, 1 + 1 must = 2. Imagine trying to use a mathematically broken calculator based on poorly understood arithmetic to get a correct answer but you have no way to confirm that “correct answer” except to wait 50-100 years. Sound crazy? Welcome to Global Climate Modeling. Yes the models have to be exact to give any sort of relevant results. That is like saying a calculator does not have to be based on accurate arithmetic to be a useful tool in mathematics – utter propaganda.
Weather vs. Climate
Computer models are used to predict your weather and you know how accurate they are. But Al Gore and Gavin Schmidt can certainly tell your what the climate will be 50-100 years from now. Give me a break! Don’t be fooled that the basic principles of how computers work changes whether you are modeling the climate or the weather. Nor is one more accurate than the other long term. Computer code is computer code no matter what name you give it and how a computer works does not change because you change the name you call the code. You cannot simply excuse away missing data, substitute mathematically created observations, parameterize what you are unable to model and then run the model over a longer time and think your results have any remote relation to reality.
The existence of parameterizations (approximated assumptions) means that various calculations are not fully resolved to scale and thus the models are flawed by design, this is basic computer science. You have results based on estimated calculations and thus worthless results. No hand waving can change this. Any computer code that is not 100% perfect will produce meaningless results with scientific and math calculations. That is the fundamentals of how a computer works.
The Myth of Testing
Testing a model against past climate is an advanced exercise in curve fitting, nothing more and proves absolutely nothing. What this means is you are attempting to have your model’s output match the existing historical output that has been recorded. For example matching the global mean temperature curve over 100 years. Even if you match this temperature curve with your model it is meaningless. Your model could be using some irrelevant calculation that simply matches the curve but does not relate to the real world. With a computer model there are an infinite number of ways to match the temperature curve but only one way that represents the real world. It is impossible for computer models to prove which combination of climate physics correctly matches the real world. Do not be fooled this logic is irrefutable by anyone who understands computer science and computer modeling.
“These codes are what they are – the result of 30 years and more effort by dozens of different scientists (note, not professional software engineers), around a dozen different software platforms and a transition from punch-cards of Fortran 66, to Fortran 95 on massively parallel systems.” – Gavin Schmidt, RealClimate.org
Computer Science vs. Natural Science
To make matters worse it is not computer scientists creating these models but natural scientists coding them using Fortran. These natural scientists do not even begin to have the basic understanding of computer science or proper coding practices. Their code is not 100% available publicly and you do not have independent auditing or code validation. Sloppy and buggy code is very likely littered inside these climate model programs yet there is next to no accountability for any of this. How do you separate a programming error from a temperature anomaly? How can you replace observational data with a complex mathematical equation? You can’t.
How many of the models used by the IPCC have had ANY bug fixes or code changes since the most recent IPCC report? If they have had ANY – all previous model run results become null and void based on simple logic thus easily invalidating the ridiculous conclusions of the IPCC report.
“No complex code can ever be proven ‘true’ (let alone demonstrated to be bug free). Thus publications reporting GCM results can only be suggestive.” – Gavin Schmidt, RealClimate.org
All the computer illiterates are convinced that because something is done on a “super computer” that costs “millions of dollars” it is infallible. The more complex the model, the more “mysterious” it seems to the average person. The public gives computer climate models this mystical aura because they are largely computer illiterate about how they actually work and when they hear the term “computer” they do not want to sound or feel stupid, so they nod their heads and go along with it.
Why are we not turning to models to predict the future for everything? Because they can’t, not even remotely. Some of them work “sort of” for the weather in very, very short term results (1-3 days) until all the data they are processing that is wrong combined with all the data they are missing and the millions of variables they are not accounting for start to kick in and grow exponentially the farther out the model runs and wham – the model is wrong. No kidding, there are simply way too many variables that they cannot account for and the computer power necessary to even start to take these variables into account does not exist.
The sheer ignorance of the scientists creating these models is astounding. The fact that they have absolutely no scientific understanding of computer systems in any remote way is appalling. They instead rely on the computer illiteracy of the general public and their perceived standing as “intellectuals” to get away with this fraud.
You are expected to believe that they can “model” the climate 50-100 years in the future when they cannot even give you accurate weather 3 days out? Don’t be fools, I do this for a living, Computer Models cannot predict the future with anything as complex as the Earth’s climate.
“My first heresy says that all the fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated. Here I am opposing the holy brotherhood of climate model experts and the crowd of deluded citizens who believe the numbers predicted by the computer models. […] But I have studied the climate models and I know what they can do. The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics, and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing the clouds, the dust, the chemistry and the biology of fields and farms and forests. They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in. The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do not yet understand. It is much easier for a scientist to sit in an air-conditioned building and run computer models, than to put on winter clothes and measure what is really happening outside in the swamps and the clouds. That is why the climate model experts end up believing their own models.” – Freeman Dyson, Professor Emeritus of Physics, Princeton University
This article was posted: Tuesday, November 4, 2008 at 5:42 am